Thanks to the nflFastR project, Pro Football Focus for the timely sources of data.
For those of you new to this, I will publish key QB stats each week judging how well the Colts’ QB performed. Yes, O-Line, receivers, and play-calling impact these numbers but they are primarily QB measures. I will probably modify the charts throughout the season. Commentary will be brief but feel free to let me know in the comments that stats aren’t everything. (click charts for larger view)
In Week 5, the Colts offense
actually did a pretty good job of moving the ball downfield, but couldn’t finish drives, settling for field goals instead of touchdowns. The passing game was a major contributor to those struggles.
HOW WELL?
mouseover definitions: arsr, edp, sg%, oz%, pr%, tip, ttt, adot, ay/c, yac, yacoe, yd/c, ac%, cpoe, aypa, drp, scr%, ta%, sck%, aa%, ny/d, ny/p, 1st%, td%, to%, qbsr, epa/p, adj/p
- Indianapolis got a bit above average production from its running game while leaning heavily on the pass on early downs. (15th ARSR; 8th EDP)
- Jones faced less than average pressure even though his time to throw was right about average, so that means the O-Line gave him decent protection. (21st PR%; 2oth TIP; 15th TTT)
- The passing game took a dramatic turn downfield compared with last week. Jones had one of the deepest average target depths in the league, although his completed passes traveled much shorter distances with about average yards after the catch. (2nd ADOT; 14th AY/C; 15th YAC; 12th YD/C)
- The deeper passing approach came with a major drop in completions. Jones completed just 57.1% of his adjusted passes (throwaways and drops removed), which was about the worst of any QB in week 5. A lot of that was 4th quarter desperation, but even after adjusting for depth, his accuracy was poor resulting in poor yardage efficiency (31st AC%; 24th CPOE; 25th AYPA)
- Jones rarely scrambled or threw the ball away, and he took just one sack which helped preserve yardage when looking at all dropbacks. (29th SCR%; 25th TA%; 29th SCK%, 18th NY/D)
- The passing offense struggled as Jones moved the chains on fewer than 30% of dropbacks and failed to produce a touchdown. (24th 1ST%; 30th TD%)
- On the positive side, Jones avoided turnovers entirely, which helped offset some of the negatives. (24th TO%)
- Overall, Jones was much more consistent than last week, with successful plays on 43.8% of his QB plays. But the offense still lacked enough productive plays to generate meaningful value. He finished just above zero in EPA per play, slightly below the league average. (18th QBSR; 21st EPA/P)
Jones’ biggest problem this week was accuracy. Despite throwing much deeper than usual, his 57.1% adjusted rate pulled down his efficiency. That left him with very little production through the air, and the offense struggled to sustain drives.
On the positive side, Jones avoided the costly mistakes that hurt him last week. He took 1 sack, didn’t turn the ball over, and produced a respectable rate of successful plays. But without more completions or explosive plays, that consistency wasn’t enough to generate much value.
Jones actually had a pretty productive first half, generating several big positive plays and helping the Colts move the ball despite some inconsistency. But the 4th quarter was a different story. The passing game stalled, with incompletions piling up and very few meaningful gains. The Colts never recovered offensively, turning what had been a somewhat promising start into a disappointing finish.
Jones bounced back a bit from his disastrous Week 4 performance, improving across all top four measures. His EPA per play returned to roughly league average, while his success rate, first-down rate, and net yards per play also recovered. However, all four measures remain at or below average, and the longer-term trend is still moving downward. Week 5 was an improvement, but Jones has yet to regain the promising form he showed last year.
HOW FAR?
Jones got off to a productive start, connecting on several passes that moved the chains and generating some meaningful gains through the air. But that production faded as the game went on. The second half was dominated by incompletions, particularly on deeper throws, and Jones struggled to sustain drives. Despite taking big shots downfield towards the end of the game, he rarely connected, leaving his yards per attempt steadily declining.
Jones took a much more aggressive approach in Week 5, with his average depth of target jumping from just 3.8 yards to 11.5 yards, one of his highest marks over the past 17 weeks. However, his average depth of completion increased only modestly, from 3.7 to 6.1 yards. The large gap between the two means Jones was taking considerably more shots downfield but struggling to connect on them.
Jones ranks near the bottom of the league in yards per attempt, averaging just 6.0 yards per throw off of shorter throws.
TO WHO?
Tyler Warren led the Colts’ receivers with 83 yards on seven catches, producing most of his yardage through the air. Keenan Allen and Josh Downs also contributed, with Downs generating almost all of his yardage before the catch. Laquon Treadwell was targeted eight times but managed just two receptions
On the year, Downs leads the Colts in receiving yards, with Warren close behind. But they’re getting their production in very different ways. Downs generates most of his yardage through the air, while Warren relies much more heavily on yards after the catch. Keenan Allen and Laquon Treadwell are the next two contributors, with Treadwell’s production coming primarily on deeper completions.
Jones pushed the ball farther downfield this week. Josh Downs and Laquon Treadwell all finished below average in EPA per target despite being targeted well beyond the league’s average depth. Tyler Warren was the notable exception, generating positive value on intermediate throws, which is what I have been waiting for all season.
Downs and Pierce have been Jones’ most productive receivers in terms of EPA per target, both generating above-average value on deeper throws. Tyler Warren seeason totals are finally above average despite working primarily underneath.
HOW ACCURATE?
Jones’ accuracy took a big step backward in Week 5, with his adjusted completion rate falling to its lowest point in the last 17 weeks. He was particularly ineffective on throws over 20 yards, while his best results came on throws within five yards of the line. Even after accounting for the difficulty of his targets, his completion rate remained below expectations, continuing a troubling trend over the past several weeks.
HOW FAST?
Jones’ time to throw returned to roughly league average in Week 5 after being unusually quick the previous week (due to pressure). He also took only one sack, doing a good job of avoiding negative plays. His season-long numbers show that he’s getting the ball out faster than expected for the depth of his targets, which is a good thing.
TO WHERE?
Jones’ deep passing was pretty ineffective but his shots on the left side under 20 yards found success.
Well, at least we have 2 green boxes now.
