As nearly every NBA observer knows by now, the Portland Trail Blazers have been busy over the last few weeks. They traded for Ja Morant, signed Micah Nori as their new head coach, re-signed Robert Williams III, and picked up free agent center Branden Carlson. They haven’t been alone in that impulse, though. Plenty of teams have made as many moves, some even more dramatic. More to the point, the flurry of exchanges has left the Blazers with a roster that could charitably be called “unbalanced”, perhaps
more accurately “unfinished”.
More than one reader of the Blazer’s Edge Mailbag has noted the phenomenon, as this question demonstrates:
Dave,
This can’t be it right? Setting aside what I think of trading for Ja right now, I’m still looking at this roster and trying to make it make sense. It’s all point guards and centers right? They can’t put that team on the floor. So do you think there’s another move coming? The media is saying no but I can’t believe this is what we’re going with. What’s next?
Avery
Let’s take a look at the current roster:
Guards: Ja Morant, Damian Lillard, Shaedon Sharpe, Jrue Holiday, Scoot Henderson, Vit Krejci
Forwards: Deni Avdija, Toumani Camara, Sidy Cissoko
Centers: Donovan Clingan, Robert Williams III, Branden Carlson, Yang Hansen
The imbalance you’re talking about is clear. Portland fields four potential centers for one position, three potential forwards for two positions. That’s a 4:1 ratio versus 1.5:1 (or 8:2 against 3:2 if you prefer round numbers). That’s a big difference!
We can overcome some of the difficulty by presuming players swinging between roles.
Holiday and Henderson have already played some combo guard. Lillard might be able to. But that’s the difference between point and shooting guard, mostly to get all those small guys minutes. It doesn’t affect the forward void at all.
The Blazers don’t have a lot of swinging wings between the 2 and 3 spots. Avdija can play any of those positions, but he’s already slotted as a forward in this construct instead of the de facto point guard role he played much of last year. Sharpe and Krejci might move to the small forward position, but modern small forwards are often your 3-and-D guys, spreading the floor with sharpshooting and locking down opposing scorers. Neither of those players is a defender and “Sharpe-shooting” just isn’t the same. Realistically, Shaedon needs some of the same space the point guards do, just from a different angle. Krejci can hit deep, but he’s not the kind of guy you bank your franchise on.
On the other end of the lineup, it’s hard to imagine Williams or Hansen becoming a power forward next to the other centers. Williams would be mobile enough but his scoring range is limited. Hansen is too slow. Those centers are pretty firmly centers.
One of the cautions here is that we’ve only listed 13 players. It’s possible the Blazers bring in another forward or two in free agency. The ideal ones—those defensive-minded shooters—are in high demand, though. Most of them are already off the market. And the best candidate for that particular role—Blazers incumbent Matisse Thybulle—is another guard. Odds are any outright signing will produce a minor candidate, at best.
In short, Portland really will field three forwards, followed by a bunch of making up stuff and hoping. “Positionless Basketball” is all the rage, but it’s meant to describe lineups in which everybody can do everything in all places and positions, not one in which nobody really fits any position at all.
You’re correct that media reports—at least national ones—have the Blazers standing pat now. I give that a fair amount of weight, simply because nothing changing is always the easiest, and thus most probable, option. But I don’t think that’s by design. I’m guessing the Blazers are ok biding their time until the next move, whatever it may be, understanding that the most obvious targets are either too expensive or unavailable right now. I fully believe more moves are coming. I just think they might not be as soon as Blazers fans want.
Earlier in the summer, the hottest rumors involved trading the veteran Holiday and draft capital for stars, or at least suitable starters. I don’t think that’s the plan anymore. If they’re going to make a deal, I’m guessing it’ll be inverted, leveraging the youth of Sharpe or Henderson against a mid-rotation veteran with the right skills and position. Think Sam Hauser in Boston or Cameron Johnson in Denver…if not them directly, that kind of guy. The receiving team gets a flyer on upside that Portland can’t take advantage of right now. The Blazers get a solid rotation player and maybe—depending on the deal—save a little money. They also preserve their draft stash and their ability to pivot in a couple years.
While this kind of deal makes sense, it’s not strictly necessary. Which brings us back to the original question. Will the Blazers make another move this summer? Technically speaking, they don’t have to. The effect of such a move would be incremental. They’d still end up in the middle zone of the Western Conference. They’d just look better doing it, perhaps able to absorb a few more contingencies.
That said they absolutely could and probably should. That lineup doesn’t look right in any sense: playing time, role, shooting, defensive integrity. It’s a mess of ingredients with no coherent dish at the end. If they don’t, view this season as an extended trial run for lots of players, just at a higher level than the recent rebuilding phase offered.
One part of my head says the Blazers absolutely need to make shifts before the year starts. Another part of my head says, reasonably speaking, they probably won’t. What does your head say? Share your thoughts in the comments section below. And if you want to send in your own question to the Mailbag, email it to blazersub@gmail.com and we’ll try to respond to as many as we can!
