At halftime during the UCF game, I started to take a much longer look at our two freshmen QBs. I’d glanced over their recruiting profiles when they officially signed, but nothing deeper than that. Why? Because I’m not a recruiting zealot, and true freshmen QBs normally don’t jump in to make the offense better. By halftime, however, I’d lowered my bar on “make the offense better” considerably. So, who are these two freshmen QBs, and what might they bring to this Tar Heel offense?
Let’s start with the
obvious. This offense is not “one player away.” It’s several players away, distributed across all position groups. We’ve all seen QBs with high potential handed too much too early, and those negatives can be powerfully formative.
Chazz Surratt, for example, was tasked with leading the 2017 UNC offense as a true freshman, and he looked promising initially. How does 49-77 (64%) for 756 yards with 7 TDs and 2 interceptions against California and Louisville sound as an introduction? Fans were sky high. That same player would gradually lose his confidence over the season, a spiral that ended with opposing defenses scoring touchdowns left and right. While QB is the most important position on the field, Fedora’s offensive system was even more dependent than most on QB decision-making and execution. Chazz seemed progressively overwhelmed as defensive coordinators adjusted to his strengths and weaknesses, while his head coach, Larry Fedora, didn’t.
Surratt rode the bench his sophomore season and then changed positions to linebacker when Mack came to town. Chazz got drafted, and he remains in the NFL as a special teams player and reserve linebacker. That’s testament to both his athletic ability and emotional resiliency, two qualities which should have served him well in his dream to play QB. Too much. Too soon.
A key argument against Max starting games this season (one I agree with) is that he’s out of eligibility at the end of this season. Every rep Max takes is an opportunity cost in the evaluation and development of the two freshmen. If Max isn’t substantially elevating the offense’s performance, then what’s the point?
A separate argument could be made that the offense lacks sufficient surrounding support to allow the freshmen to get meaningful and productive reps. Our favorite idiom for that would be “thrown to the wolves.” I won’t pretend to be qualified to make that determination. That’s why we’re paying Belichick $10 million a year and surrounding him with other highly paid voices that he trusts. The rest of this article assumes the offense can block, catch, and run well enough to help a true freshman grow on the job, if managed carefully.
Bryce Baker, 6’3, 205, East Forsyth High School, Kernersville, NC
Bryce comes to Carolina as a heralded four-star recruit. He was invited to Nike’s Elite 11 Finals in Los Angeles after showing out in the regionals. His performance in the Finals earned him recognition as one of the top QBs in the 2025 recruiting class. Analysts praised his ability to “throw guys open,” hit tight windows, extend plays, and avoid pressure. ESPN named him the 200th best high school player in America in his class. 247 had him at 155.
Baker played against 2A competition his first two years in high school before transferring to East Forsyth, a 4A school. His stats as a senior: 228-305 (74.8%), 40 TDs, 5 ints, 3,523 yards passing, 303 yards rushing, 6 TDs. Recruiting services were drawn to him as a passer, and while ESPN saw fit to label him a “dual threat,” Bryce’s elite skill is his ability to throw the football. He has a quick release off a strong platform and demonstrates the ability to vary speed and trajectory to the needs of the throw while remaining accurate. In his highlights, he moves to extend plays and move chains; he’s not hunting explosive runs. In that sense, ESPN categorizing him as a dual threat seems wrong to me. His highlights show a QB with the experience to know when the defense is handing him some yards, and he takes it.
For Bryce’s transition to college, I’m relying on the evaluation of Jason ”Doc” Staples, who’s been observing practices and talking to insiders. Jason in his podcast suggests Bryce has NFL potential as a thrower, comparing his ceiling in that respect more akin to Sam Howell than Drake Maye. Jason also suggests Bryce, like most freshman in college sports, needs to continue adjusting to the speed of the college game and trusting what he’s sees.
Tua Tagovailoa in 2017 was perhaps the most gifted true freshman passer I’ve ever seen, generating 11 TD passes in 77 attempts against 2 interceptions. Brian Daboll, his OC that year, put it this way: “Every QB can consistently hit a target the size of a door. A few can consistently hit the doorknob. Tua hits the keyhole.” However, passing is only one component of playing QB. Tua struggled with progressions, pocket awareness, and coverage disguises his entire freshman season. As Saban said after Tua’s dramatic championship game appearance, “the light bulb went on” during December semi-final preparations. It just takes time, no matter the raw talent.
The Carolina pass game would benefit immediately from a QB willing to put the ball in the air to the right receiver as a route develops. This assumes the QB knows what he’s seeing and throws to the right spot. Bryce demonstrated those abilities in the Elite 11 competition, but that’s a staged event without grown men five years older trying to take his head off. It’s a very different form of pressure and different set of evaluative metrics. Belichick and Kitchens have to decide if Bryce is emotionally ready for the spotlight as well as the physical demands of being UNC’s starting QB. Once they pull that trigger, they’re committed.
Au’tori Newkirk, 6’3, 200, Maury High School, Norfolk, VA
Newkirk was a consensus three-star recruit, although 247 assigned him a 4th star in their final rankings and ranked him 22nd nationally at the QB position. Rivals and ESPN had lower estimations. Au’tori started for 2 years at Maury High School, a Class 5 (out of 6) school in Virginia. His team went undefeated both seasons, winning two state titles and earning Newkirk Virginia Player of the Year Class 5. His stats as a senior: 175 for 256 (68.3%), 44 TD, 5 int, 3,802 yards passing, 603 yards rushing, 6 TDs.
Without a bunch of national experts weighing in, I spent some time reviewing his highlights. Newkirk shows good arm strength and accuracy to all parts of the field. The ball seems to flutter on short throws, which he sometimes throws off balance in his rush to get the ball out. In that vein, his delivery downfield seems a touch deliberate with some wind up. He also can pick a receiver and lock on, waiting for receiver separation as he moves. The movement while keeping his eyes downfield is great. Locking onto a target isn’t. In short, Newkirk isn’t as advanced a passer as Baker. He’s got clear mechanical issues to address, at least from what’s evident in the highlights. That said, the staff gave Newkirk, not Baker, a chance to run an offensive series against Richmond in garbage time. Au’tori’s first down pass attempt was picked off.
Mike Farrell, Rivals’ National Recruiting Director for 20 years, glowingly reviews Newkirk on his web site. He calls Newkirk “a winner,” citing the QB’s strengths in his estimation that Au’tori could start at a school like UNC by year three. Farrell cautions that potential requires addressing mechanical issues and developing the ability to work through progressions.
Summary
As fans, we’re always hungry to see “the next,“ especially when “the now” falls so far short of expectations. However, moving to a true freshman QB carries risks to development as well as offering opportunity. Writing off this season’s win-loss total in order to invest in next season and to see what we’ve got is a viable strategy. But, strategies rely on execution, and this one seems especially reliant on the coaching staff. Are Freddie Kitchens and Matt Lombardi capable of developing a game by game strategy to nurture and grow a young QB through the challenges of P4 competition? Can Belichick sell a locker room of transfers to adjust to goals that sacrifice some success this season for the possibility of added success next season?
As a fan, it irritates me that my main concern with moving to Bryce or Au’tori is a coaching staff that’s being paid this much and that crowed all off-season about bringing NFL exceptionalism to the college game. I genuinely wonder if they’re up to the heavy lifting of going back to the drawing board, as well as shielding the true freshmen by taking whatever heat might come from poor play. The easier path for them would be to ride it out with Gio and Max, blaming Gio’s under-performance and a shallow transfer market for their first year flop. And to be honest, that’s my expectation at this point.
