6) Louisville Cardinals (23-10) vs. 11) South Florida Bulls (25-8)
NCAA Tournament East Region First Round
Game Time: 1:30 p.m.
Location: KeyBank Center: Buffalo, N.Y.
Television: TNT
Announcers: Jason Benetti (play-by-play), Jim Jackson (analysis), Allie LaForce (sideline)
Favorite: Louisville by 4.5
Series: Louisville leads, 29-4
Last Meeting: Louisville won, 80-45, on Feb. 18, 2014 in Louisville
Series History:
Projected Starting Lineups:
Louisville
- G Adrian Wooley (6-4, 200, So.)
- G Isaac McKneely (6-4, 195, Sr.)
- G Ryan Conwell (6-4, 215, Sr.)
- F J’Vonne Hadley (6-7, 210, Sr.)
- C Vangelis Zougris (6-8, 240, Jr.)
South Florida
- G CJ Brown (6-2, 175, So.)
- G Wes Enis (6-2, 200, Jr.)
- G Joseph Pinion (6-5, 200, Sr.)
- G Josh Omojafo (6-5, 200, Sr.)
- F Izaiyah Nelson (6-10, 218, Sr.)
Statistics:
South Florida’s Season to Date:
Relevant Videos:
About South Florida:
Full breakdown here
OFFENSIVE STYLE
It’s impossible to watch South Florida play and not see the remarkable similarities between their style and Louisville’s style. There’s a reason.
Pat Kelsey and Nate Oats’ styles are virtually identical, and USF head coach Bryan Hodgson was an assistant under Oats at both Buffalo and Alabama before leaving to succeed former U of L assistant Mike Balado as the head coach at Arkansas State.
South Florida actually plays at an even faster pace than Louisville … and virtually everyone else in college basketball. Whether it’s off a made shot, a missed short or a turnover, the moment one of their players gets the ball in their hands, they’re gone. USF plays at the third-fastest pace of any team in the tournament (only Alabama and Georgia are faster) and their 87.7 ppg scoring average is the seventh-highest in the field of 68.
Like U of L, USF wants to let it fly early and often from the outside. They don’t shoot quite as many threes as the Cardinals do, simply because they don’t shoot it as well (33.1% — 64th out of 68 teams in the tournament). The biggest difference from a three-point perspective between Louisville and South Florida is that while the Cardinals have four or five guys with the potential to light it up from deep, the Bulls only have two real volume shooters. Thankfully for them, their two of the best volume shooters in the country.
Wes Enis and Joseph Pinion are two of 23 players in Division-I who have made 100 or more three-pointers this season. The Bulls are just the 12th team in the history of college basketball to field a team with two players that have made 100 triples in a single season.
Outside of the three-point shooting Enis and Pinnion, there are two offensive areas where USF has been killing teams all season.
The first is getting downhill and drawing fouls. The Bulls are 41st in Division-I in free-throw rate, and they shoot it a solid 74.3% collective average from the stripe. Defending without fouling has been an issue at times for Louisville this season, but not as much recently. That trend needs to continue on Thursday afternoon.
The final area feels like it might be the most important. South Florida 38.2 percent of its missed shots, the seventh-best offensive rebound rate out of 365 Division-I teams. They average 17.8 second chance points per game. That’s the most of any team in the country.
If you’re a Louisville fan, you’d love to think those numbers are the product of playing in the American Conference than anything else, and that a team like the Cardinals would be able to keep the Bulls off the offensive glass better than a team like East Carolina. But USF had a ton of success on the offensive glass even against the teams on the very tough non-conference schedule they faced back in November and December.
If you let this team hit or exceed its season average in second chance, you’re probably going to lose this game.
DEFENSIVE STYLE
South Florida’s season-long defensive numbers aren’t terrific, but they’re very strong if you look at just the last six or seven weeks.
While some of that may be due to conference play, there is a noticeable difference in energy level when you watch this team’s games from Nov/Dec compared to their games from the last few weeks.
The best way to describe South Florida’s current defense is by saying that Hodgson appears to have adopted Rick Pitino’s “they can’t call them all” philosophy. The Bulls get called for a ton of fouls.
That 19.7 number represents probably half of the fouls they actually commit. Go watch any condensed game video from the last month or so and I think you’ll see the same thing. They absolutely foul the shit out of everyone constantly and just dare the officials to blow the whistle.
Let me straightforward: This is not a criticism. I think we as Louisville fans know better than just about anyone that employing this philosophy can be one of the smartest things a coach can do.
The question for USF will be whether or not they can adjust if they get a different type of whistle in the NCAA Tournament. We’ve seen this a lot with Big Ten teams over the years where the stripes from your league that know you and your coaches and your style might let you get away with a number of things during league play that the refs who call your games in the tournament will not. I think a tight whistle would benefit Louisville in this one, especially considering U of L’s superior depth and how the Cards have shot free-throws for the bulk of this season.
Like Louisville, the Bulls play almost entirely man-to-man defense, but have thrown out a couple of different looks at rare times over the season. They’ll also throw out a little full-court pressure, but typically that’s just to try and force their opponents to use some of the shot clock and not to try and force turnovers. Maybe that will change now that they know Mikel Brown is out.
The Bulls force turnovers on 18.9% of their defensive possessions, which is very high. They put constant pressure on the ball, they reach for steals all the time (27th in the country in steal percentage), and they try and jump passing lanes. In addition to this leading to an abnormally high number of fouls committed, their overextension and over-aggression also leaves them susceptible to backcuts and leaving good shooters open on the perimeter.
Turnovers ultimately doomed Louisville in their tournament loss to Miami. It goes without saying that they have to do a much better job of taking care of the ball against a team that lives and dies defensively with trying to capitalize on the other team’s mistakes.
Nelson is a highly capable rim protector, as are the two forwards they bring off the bench. Because of this, opponents are shooting just 46.7 percent (25th-best inD1) from inside the arc against the Bulls. Outside the arc, teams are having a lot more success. USF’s three-point defense of 33.9% is just 188th-best in Division-I.
One thing that jumped out after watching multiple games is how often South Florida gives up easy buckets off of baseline out-of-bounds plays. This is an area where Pat Kelsey and Mike Cassity can hopefully get in their play design bag and “steal” 4-6 points.
Last thing: I’m not sure I’ve ever seen a team with a bigger discrepancy between how well they rebound offensively and how poorly they rebound defensively.
On offense, USF has four or sometimes all five guys sprinting to the glass to create the second chance opportunities that they’ve killed opponents with all season long. Defensively, it’s Nelson and then four dudes just kind of standing around. There is a huge opportunity here for Louisville — a good offensive rebounding team in its own right — to create a number of second and third chances on offense.
5 BIGGEST STRENGTHS
1. Offensive Rebounding
Shooting the fifth-worst three-point percentage of any team in the tournament almost doesn’t matter when you’re getting at least two chances to score on almost half your offensive possessions.
Again, South Florida’s 17.8 second chance points per game isn’t just the best average of any team in the tournament, it’s the best average of any team in the country. If Louisville doesn’t sell out to compete on the defensive glass, they’re likely going to put themselves in a position where they have to score 90+ points to win.
2. Enis and Pinnion from the outside
South Florida is just the 12th Division 1 team ever to have two players make 100 three-pointers in a season. These guys are lethal when they’re left open, and they’re capable (especially Pinnion) even when they’re pretty well defended.
Facing a team with two dudes who both have the ability to go off for 7-12 threes on any given afternoon is terrifying. Louisville simply cannot afford to let either guy get into an early rhythm. Attacking them (especially Pinnion) on the other end to try and get them in foul trouble would be an enormous win.
3. Forcing turnovers
Pretty much all of Louisville’s losses in the second half of the season can be traced back to two things: Poor outside shooting and too many turnovers.
South Florida creates turnovers on 15.2 percent of its defensive possessions and steals on 8.7 percent. Those are huge numbers for any team, but especially for one that wants to turn every game into a track meet because they thrive in transition (7th best fast break scoring team in the tournament).
If there isn’t a tight whistle in this one, Louisville still has to keep its head when faced with USF’s constant pressure. The Cards can’t afford to get into a situation where they’re worried about what the officials aren’t calling.
No lazy passes, no lazy dribbles, no dribbling straight into three defenders when there are open teammates all around you. Every possession has to be valued.
4. Energy and confidence
These guys feed off of Hodgson, who is a remarkably confident and tough dude.
The Bulls are relentless in both their effort and their shit-talking.
If Louisville doesn’t match USF’s energy and its physicality and its toughness, well, they won’t deserve to play into the weekend.
5. The storylines
Ok, this isn’t a “real” strength, but it feels real to me.
South Florida checks every box when it comes to having the feel-good storylines that every double-digit seed that pulls an early Thursday upset seems to have.
For starters, this is a program that had a ton of momentum before head coach Amir Abdur-Rahim tragically and suddenly passed away at the age of 43 just weeks before the start of the 2024-25 season. Hodgson has repeatedly given Abdur-Rahim credit for laying the foundation that he inherited, and for Bulls fans, winning a game in the tournament for the first time since 2012 (and just the third time ever) would feel like the perfect closure to Abdur-Rahim’s story.
Secondly, Hodgson is from the Buffalo area and repeatedly called this a “home game” when the draw was revealed. The story that has already been widely reported and will continue to be on Thursday is that Hodgson’s father deals with dementia and has never been able to see his son serve as a head coach. That’s going to change on Thursday.
Incredibly cool storyline for the rest of the country to latch onto … not so much for us.
5 WEAKNESSES
1. Fouling
It won’t matter if they don’t get called, but South Florida fouls more than any team in this tournament. If Louisville’s having yet another “uncharacteristically poor” outside shooting game, they have to make a concerted effort to drive the ball and get to the free-throw line. Honestly, they need to be doing that even if they’re having a solid outside shooting game.
2. Reckless drives to the rim
When you play at one of the fastest paces in the country, there’s likely to be at least a little bit of carelessness involved. South Florida is no different.
While they have big-time athletes and capable drivers, they also sometimes have guys who will just put their heads down and head to the basket with seemingly zero plan. USF is getting its shot blocked on 13.1 percent of its offensive possessions, that’s 357th out of 365 D-I teams.
Run Enis and Pinnion off the three-point line, defend their drivers without fouling, don’t leave Nelson for easy dish and dunks, and make their other guys score in traffic.
3. Defensive rebounding
An area where Louisville simply HAS to take advantage. These guys do not attack the defensive glass with anywhere near the same vigor they do on the other end. If you don’t make them pay for that, you’re leaving a ton of much-needed points out there.
4. Being tall
Just one starter over 6’5. Their athleticism helps make up for that, but the hope has to be that Louisville can minimize the advantage in some of the areas where USF has been so strong simply by being bigger, more athletic and more talented than every team they’ve faced over the last two and-a-half months.
5. Handling crunch time
The Bulls have not been great in winning time this season. Most of their 17 conference victories came by wide margins. When they’ve been forced to make big plays in crunch time, more often than not they’ve folded.
USF has played four overtime games this season, and they’ve gone 2-2 in those games. Their most recent defeat was a 1-point loss at 15-15 Temple where the teams went back-and-forth in the final minute before the Owls got the game’s final score and stop. Overall, in games decided by 5 points or fewer this season, the Bulls are just 2-4.
Notable:
—Louisville is making its 45th NCAA tournament appearance, and is making back-to-back appearances in the Big Dance for the first time since going to nine straight tournaments from 2007-2015.
—Louisville is 76-45 all-time in NCAA tournament games.
—Louisville hasn’t won an NCAA Tournament game since 2017.
—South Florida is making its fourth NCAA Tournament appearance in program history. The Bulls are 2-3 all-time in the Big Dance.
—Both of South Florida’s NCAA Tournament wins came in 2012, when they won a First Four game and a first round game. The Bulls have never advanced to the Sweet 16.
—South Florida enters Thursday’s game ranked No. 8 in scoring offense at a program record 87.7 points per game. Louisville ranks 20th at 84.7 points per contest.
—Louisville head coach Pat Kelsey is 0-5 as a head coach in NCAA tournament games. Kelsey is also 0-5 against the spread in the Big Dance.
—Louisville is a No. 6 seed in the NCAA Tournament for the fourth time in program history. The Cards are 6-3 all-time as a 6-seed. They advanced to the Sweet 16 in 1996, the Elite Eight in 1997 and the second round in 2007.
—Louisville is 3-0 all-time in first round games when playing as a No. 6 seed.
—Louisville is 53-13 all-time in the NCAA tournament when playing a game as the better seed.
—South Florida ranks No. 24 nationally in assists per game (17.2). Louisville is tied for 25th at 17.1.
—Louisville has won 27 of its last 38 games in the NCAA Tournament, advancing to the Elite Eight five times in its last 13 appearances.
—Louisville is 20-5 in first round games when playing as the better seed.
—Louisville head coach Pat Kelsey has never faced South Florida.
—South Florida head coach Bryan Hodgson is 1-0 in games against Louisville, beating the Cards at the Yum Center (75-63) on Dec. 13, 2023 when he was the head coach at Arkansas State.
—A double-digit seed has won at least one of the first eight games to tip off on the opening Thursday of the tournament in 13 consecutive years. Louisville-South Florida will be the third game to tip-off on Thursday.
—Louisville is 39-5 under head coach Pat Kelsey when leading at halftime.
—Louisville is 0-9 under head coach Pat Kelsey when trailing by 5 points or more at halftime.
—Louisville’s roster features two different former South Florida players: Kasean Pryor, who spent the 2023–24 season at South Florida under the late Amir Abdur-Rahim, and Ryan Conwell, who began his collegiate career with the Bulls during the 2022–23 season.
—Louisville is 2-0 all-time in neutral site games against South Florida.
—Louisville is 4-1 in neutral site games so far this season.
—South Florida is looking for its first five-game winning streak in neutral site games since 2009-10.
—Louisville has won 15 of its last 16 games against South Florida.
—South Florida’s 11-game winning streak is the second-longest active win streak in the country.
—South Florida is just the 12th team in the history of college basketball to field a team with two players that have made 100 triples in a single season (Wes Enis and Joseph Pinion).
—South Florida has scored at least 100 points in six different games this season. That is the most by any American Conference team in a single campaign all-time and a program record. The Bulls have three of the four highest scoring conference games in program history this season.
—Louisville is 12-1 in Saturday games so far this season, and just 11-9 in games played on any other day of the week.
—South Florida is averaging 17.8 second chance points per game, the most of any team in Division-I.
—USF has allowed an average of 62.8 points per game in the NCAA Tournament. Among the 243 DI teams to play at least five NCAA Tournament games, the Bulls rank eighth in scoring defense all-time.
—Louisville is 10-6 all-time in East Region games.
—Louisville is 5-0 all-time in games against No. 11 seeds.
—Louisville has hit the 100-point mark six times in a season for the first time ever.
—Louisville is 48-0 under head coach Pat Kelsey when leading with five minutes to play. The Cardinals are also 1-18 under Kelsey when trailing with five minutes to play.
—Louisville is 14-0 over the past 11 seasons when limiting opponents to no more than one three-point field goal.
—Louisville is 122-0 all-time when scoring 100 or more points in non-overtime games.
—Louisville has won 167 consecutive games when holding an opponent under 50 points.
Ken Pomeroy Prediction: Louisville 84, South Florida 78
