They may have flirted with disaster last Sunday in Baltimore, but the New England Patriots managed to beat the Ravens to secure a trip to the playoffs and hold onto their one-game lead in the AFC East. Winning the division has been a stated goal by head coach Mike Vrabel since his arrival, and the Patriots could end up clinching it this Sunday.
For that to happen, however, two things need to take place. One is Buffalo losing at home to the Philadelphia Eagles; the other is the Patriots taking care
of business on the road against the New York Jets. On paper, they should be able to do so — the Jets are 3-12 as well as 13.5-point underdogs — but as a look at our head-to-head comparison shows they cannot allow any slip-ups either.
Passing game
Patriots pass offense vs. Jets pass defense: The Jets are ranked 30th in the NFL in expected points added per dropback (-0.119), and it is not hard to see why. Up front, they have struggled to put the heat on opposing quarterbacks, ranking 29th in sacks (25) and 30th in pressure rate (16.1%). In the backend, meanwhile, they traded away star cornerback Sauce Gardner and have seen several starters go down with injuries, resulting in a grand total of zero passes getting intercepted this season. Against an MVP-caliber QB like Drake Maye, this looks like a combination of circumstances too challenging to overcome. Even with the Patriots facing some injury woes on offense, the matchup heavily favors the visitors. | Edge: Patriots
Patriots pass defense vs. Jets pass offense: Brady Cook is in no enviable situation. Not only is he an undrafted rookie who has been thrown in at the deep end, he also has to operate the Jets’ offense without its best receiving weapon (Garrett Wilson) and potentially its top tight end (Mason Taylor). And even though he has been pressured on only 26.1% of his snaps, he has taken 17 sacks in 89 dropbacks this season for a staggering pressure-to-sack rate of 53.1%. He also has turned the ball over seven times in three in-game appearances. If there ever is a “get right” game for New England’s pass rush, and one to add to the takeaway total, this is it. | Edge: Patriots
Running game
Patriots rushing offense vs. Jets run defense: TreVeyon Henderson returning to practice is a good sign, even with left guard Jared Wilson in concussion protocol. The Patriots’ rushing success this week won’t entirely depend on them, but having them available would make the job an easier one. And while the Jets run defense has been below average this season, ranking 18th in yards per run (4.4), 24th in EPA per run (-0.036), and 25th in touchdowns given up (18), it was competitive in its first game versus New England with no major personnel changes up front since. Since we are projecting Henderson to be cleared in time, we are giving a slight edge to the Patriots in this battle, though. Why? Because the mix of him and Rhamondre Stevenson, who sat out the first meeting, could still do some damage on the ground. | Edge: Patriots
Patriots run defense vs. Jets rushing offense: Getting back Milton Williams would help the Patriots run defense, but the Jets will present a challenge either way, even if he should return to the lineup. At 4.6 yards per carry, they have fared pretty well in the run game so far this season and are fielding a true home run threat in Breece Hall. Add the fact that New England is expected to be down both Khyiris Tonga and Robert Spillane, and you can see why we are giving a slight edge to New York in this battle. Until it proves otherwise, the Patriots run defense remains a concern even against a three-win team. | Edge: Jets
Special teams
The Patriots’ special teams has been a mixed bag this season; the highs have been very high, the lows quite disappointing. In the first rematch of the season — Week 15 vs. the Bills — those lows were exposed. That does not mean New York is in line to put similar stress on Jeremy Springer’s unit, but the team did manage to already find some success in Week 11: Marcus Jones had to fair-catch all four of his punt return opportunities, while the Jets out-gained New England in the kickoff return department as well. On top of it all, ageless wonder Nick Folk is leading the NFL in field goal (96.4%) and extra point success rate (100%) this season. | Edge: Jets
Coaching
The Jets’ coaching staff underwent a change since the last time they squared off against the Patriots, with defensive coordinator Steve Wilks getting fired and replaced by defensive backs coach and pass game coordinator Chris Harris. Naturally, such a move in combination with the entire season so far does not inspire plenty of confidence in the coaching staff’s overall ability to outmaneuver its opponent. New England has not been flawless either, but Mike Vrabel’s ship has been a steadier one so far and has a clear advantage in the OC vs. DC matchup. | Edge: Patriots
Verdict
The Jets are not a very good team, but there are areas where they could inflict damage upon the Patriots this week. It goes without saying that the available personnel at this point in the season will dictate whether or not that turns into a reality, but New York is not quite as bad as its record and some of the stats might indicate.
[writers put on a Boston accent] Howevah!
Given that New England has a substantial edge in some key areas, particularly in the passing game and on the coaching side of things, they are still a rightful heavy favorite. Anything but a victory would be a major disappointment, and cause for concern with the playoffs looming large in the distance.
