The Indianapolis Colts fired general manager Chris Ballard on Monday and the news surfaced an old report by Peter Schrager that the team could have acquired Matthew Stafford in 2021 instead of the Los Angeles Rams. Stafford wanted to go to the Rams, but would have approved a trade to the Colts if Ballard had outbid Les Snead, which obviously didn’t happen.
The Rams traded Jared Goff, two first-round picks, and more for Stafford. The Colts settled for Carson Wentz, a quarterback who would later backup
Stafford in L.A. in 2023.
What could have happened differently for either franchise and GM if Ballard had made a better offer to the Detroit Lions for Stafford instead of Snead?
The Colts obviously wouldn’t outbid two first-round picks, so what did they do instead?
Colts first-round picks
2021 first-round pick: DE Kwity Paye
Ballard drafted pass rusher Paye in 2021 with the 21st overall pick. Paye had 30.5 sacks in five seasons with Indianapolis but is now a member of the Las Vegas Raiders. His success as a draft pick could be rated as a B- given that mid-first round pass rushers rarely become superstars.
Paye wasn’t a bust, but he’s not as valuable as an MVP quarterback.
2022 first-round pick: Traded for Wentz in 2021
Because the Colts didn’t land Stafford, they traded a 2021 third-round pick and a conditional first-round pick in 2022, which went through because Wentz played in over 75% of the team’s snaps. The Colts went 9-8 in 2021 but didn’t qualify for the playoffs.
That ended up being the 16th overall pick, which Washington used on receiver Jahan Dotson.
What if the Colts had traded for Stafford?
So the Colts traded a third and a future first for Wentz instead of matching or beating L.A.’s offer of first-round picks in 2022 and 2023, plus Jared Goff and a third round pick.
Indianapolis didn’t have a quarterback to offer like Goff, and Lions GM Brad Holmes claimed that the team viewed Goff as another first-round pick.
So what if they made this trade offer instead:
- 2021 first-round pick (21st)
- 2021 second-round pick (54th)
- 2021 third-round pick (84th)
- 2022 first-round pick
- 2022 third-round pick
Consider that the Browns traded three first-round picks for Deshaun Watson and the Broncos traded two first and two seconds for Russell Wilson. These deals came after Stafford. It would have been bold for Indianapolis to make this trade, but it was just as bold for Snead to make the trade offering a starting quarterback and two first-round picks.
Would the Colts have won the Super Bowl with Stafford?
With this trade, the Colts would be starting Stafford in 2021 instead of Wentz, playing for Frank Reich. Stafford would be paired with the NFL’s leading rusher that season, Jonathan Taylor. His top receiver would be Michael Pittman.
Wentz did well in this offense, throwing 27 touchdowns and seven interceptions and the Colts ranked ninth in scoring.
The Titans won the AFC South at 12-5 and 10-7 would have guaranteed Indy a wild card. Just won more win would have done it.
Isn’t Stafford worth at least two wins over Wentz?
Maybe the Colts don’t win the Super Bowl, but they show improvement and perhaps that leads to an improved receiver addition in 2022. Indy ended up drafting Alec Pierce in the second-round in 2022.
What would’ve happened to the Rams?
There’s no guaranteeing what the Rams would’ve done if they hadn’t secured Stafford in a trade in 2021. Goff had been soft-benched at the end of the 2020 season. The relationship was in disrepair. Cooper Kupp needed help.
A report by Ian Rapoport said that Sean McVay was prepared to open a competition between Goff and John Wolford that offseason. In other words, the Rams would’ve kept shopping.
They may not have landed anyone and the Rams didn’t have a first-round pick in 2021 because of the Jalen Ramsey trade.
It’s hard to imagine L.A. winning the Super Bowl without Stafford that season given how important the deep passing attack was, both in the season and in the playoffs, including three late heroic drives in the postseason, including the Super Bowl.
It’s possible that Snead wouldn’t have lasted longer than Ballard in this alternate universe. Snead and McVay were both extended in September of 2022. Would that be the case if Goff had led the team to a 9-8 record in 2021?
Being bold can get you fired. In Ballard’s case, being timid was probably the culprit.
