Now that the door has closed on a Tobias Harris return as he has chosen to move on to San Antonio, John Collins appears to be the new starting PF in Detroit. Collins signed a 3-yr/$51 million deal and brings a different skillset than Tobias. However, John’s skillset is a much better fit around Cade Cunningham, Ausar Thompson, and (hopefully) Jalen Duren.
Shooting
Collins’ three-point percentage has increased the past three seasons, starting at 37.1% in 2023-2024 and eclipsing 40% this past year. Last
season he averaged 13.6 PTS, 5.3 REB, and 1.0 AST and he’s a career 37% three-point shooter.
Collins does majority of his three-point shooting from the corners where last season he shot 45% from the left corner and 41% from the right corner. Tobias shot 43% and 35%, respectively. Playing off of Cade Cunningham, John will have plenty of open looks to knock down.
Harris’ offensive game is different due to his post creation and ability to get his own shot. That’s not Collins’ game, but Collins doesn’t focus on the midrange. I’m in favor of losing Harris’ midrange shots for more opportunities at the rim or behind the arc.
While Harris took ~100 more midrange attempts, Collins took ~100 more rim attempts. I’d like to see Collins three-point attempts rise as he has never shot more than four per game, but given his efficiency from beyond the arc, it’s time to increase the volume as this team will benefit from it.
Finishing
Using the table above, Collins is an elite finisher. Harris’ inability to get to the rim with his athletic ability was the reason 44.3% of his attempts were midrange shots. Majority of Collins attempts come at the rim and he finished 8.4% higher than the NBA average of 67.0%. Not only is John a step above Tobias around the basket, but a step above most of the league.
Small-ball Five
This is the first time in a while that the Pistons have a real stretch four that can also play some small-ball five. I’m very intrigued with the idea of a lineup where Ausar can play next to a big man that can pull the defending center away from the paint. If you need Collins to be a five in short spurts, he can do it.
We know he’s a threat from the dunker’s spot.
He can be a lob threat in the pick-and-roll. I can’t wait to see him catch these from Cade.
He can even provide some weak-side rim protection here and there.
This is in no way an article shaming Tobias, but highlighting how I believe John Collins is a better fit for this current roster. In fact, go check out Sean Corp’s farewell to Tobias for some great thoughts on Tobi’s second visit in Detroit.
This roster plays fast and they should. Trajan Langdon has given Cade Cunningham a third lob threat in the starting lineup, so good luck stopping this team in transition. They’re all great rim finishers and elite athletes who best play with pace and space. Collins is best used in an offense that focuses on getting inside or finding an open three and he excels at both. I’m hoping he can maintain his efficiency while increasing his three-point volume, but I have no doubt he’ll surpass Harris’ 13.5 PPG over the last two seasons.
I’m still waiting on that big offseason domino to fall, Trajan. (please get TMIII)
Go Stones.
