Coming off a bye week, the Detroit Lions return to Ford Field in Week 7 to face the Green Bay Packers in their first NFC North game of the season. Green Bay comes in with momentum on a three-game winning streak, and running back Josh Jacobs is back. With the NFC North appearing to be the toughest division in the NFC, and arguably the NFL, these games matter a lot.
My bets against the Cardinals were almost perfect; wide receivers Jameson Williams and Amon-Ra St. Brown fell short of their goals, but
it was still a positive day as we went above .500.
Let’s keep stacking these wins and get even further ahead. The odds are with FanDuel Sportsbook.
1. Anytime Touchdown Sam LaPorta (+150)
With all the contract talk and National Tight Ends Day in the NFL, you have to consider Lions tight end Sam LaPorta here. He’s been playing very well to start 2026, coming off last year’s back injury. He already has 316 yards and three touchdowns, on pace for 1,074 yards and 10 touchdowns. The yardage would be a career high, while the touchdowns would match his rookie-season high in 2023.
I will admit it will be a challenge for LaPorta to find the endzone against Green Bay, as they’ve only allowed two touchdowns to tight ends this season. This matchup is easier for two reasons: first, Green Bay’s injuries. The Packers are down their top two linebackers, Edgerrin Cooper and Zaire Franklin, leaving Isaiah McDuffie and Ty’Ron Hopper to try and limit LaPorta. McDuffie has struggled against Detroit; in 2024, he allowed nine catches for 68 yards and a touchdown. I expect Goff to target LaPorta often, and once the team enters the red zone, he could be the offense’s top target.
Another advantage is the talent around him. The defensive backs will have their hands full with wide receivers St. Brown, Williams, and Isaac TeSlaa. The linebackers and safeties will have to contend with LaPorta and running back Jahmyr Gibbs. If I had to guess, a safety covering Gibbs is Green Bay’s best chance to slow him down, giving LaPorta a linebacker matchup. On the glorious holiday, LaPorta will want to find the end zone to give him even more ammo against the front office in ongoing contract negotiations.
Bet potential winnings: $10 -> $25
2. Alt Passing Yards: Jared Goff 250+ (-235)
While this has the best odds of the three options, it could be tough to get in the end. Lions quarterback Jared Goff is averaging 297 yards a game, but the Packers’ pass defense is easily the best he’s faced so far this season. While their safeties carry most of the weight, Detroit likes to test teams deep with Williams and TeSlaa, which could limit what they do on the long shot. Green Bay averages 209 passing yards allowed per game, so 250 would be close to their season-high (256 against the Atlanta Falcons in Week 3).
Another factor that could hinder this is the Packers’ struggling run defense. While it’s not as bad as their running offense, it’s not much better. If Detroit finds success on the ground, especially with center Cade Mays returning to start, that unit could take a nice step forward. If this game is a shootout as many expect, Goff can easily hit these yards and win the bet.
Bet potential winnings: $10 -> $14.26
3. Over 53.5 points (-110)
Detroit has the second-highest scoring offense, averaging 32.8 points per game, while Green Bay averages 21.2 and ranks 23rd. Those averages alone put this at 54 points, and with my 31-27 prediction, I see this line getting hit. Detroit’s offense has been mostly good, with a few hiccups; it’s been held to just under 30 points once this season, and I don’t see Green Bay’s defense, without its best pass rusher and top two linebackers, containing Detroit that well at Ford Field.
On the flip side, Detroit’s defense has been rough, mostly just the secondary. The matchup against Packers wide receivers Christian Watson and Matthew Golden, combined with quarterback Jordan Love throwing deep, could be a long day for the Lions secondary. Safety Brian Branch returns and gives that unit a boost, but I don’t see him getting a full workload in his first game back from his Achilles tear in December.
Even though the Packers get Jacobs back from the Commissioner’s exempt list, he hasn’t played football since training camp, and the offensive line is banged up and needs help. Green Bay has to rely on the passing game to keep this game close and score points. Field goals won’t get you much against this Lions offense, and in a divisional game, you need to walk away with a win. If this were in Green Bay, I think the Lions offense would struggle a bit more with the crowd, but at home, I don’t see this offense taking a step back.
Bet potential winnings: $10 -> $19.09
If you want to turn these three single bets into a same-game parlay, the odds are +353 and $10 -> $45.37
Record: 8-7
Brandon’s Bold Bet
If you want to go bold and build a big parlay that could pay well, put these three bets together in a parlay:
- Sam LaPorta 50+ receiving yards (-114)
- Jahmyr Gibbs over 39.5 receiving yards (-114)
- Josh Jacobs rushing yards under 51.5 (-114)
As I said earlier, it’s National Tight Ends Day, so it’s only fitting that LaPorta gets over 50 yards against this Packers defense, especially if McDuffie covers him. As for another receiving threat in Gibbs, his challenge will be Green Bay’s safeties. If Gibbs lines up against a linebacker, expect Goff to strike and take full advantage. Green Bay allows an average of 34 receiving yards per game to running backs, and with Gibbs as one of the league’s best backs, 40 seems doable, with his average currently at 48.6 per game.
The boldest part about this parlay is picking the under for Jacobs rushing yards. Detroit’s run defense is good, but not great, so either running back could hit their yardage total. What makes either line possible is how well the Packers offensive line plays. If the offensive line can hold up, especially if guard Kevin Zeitler makes his Packers debut, that can easily give either back over on their lines.
I don’t think Zeitler plays just yet, so it will be tough sledding for whoever is at running back. Jacobs hasn’t played football in almost 2 months, so I think he will struggle at first, but he won’t get a full workload. Backup running back MarShawn Lloyd will still get reps and take some carries away from Jacobs until he’s fully back in the swing of things. If you’re not sure about this leg, wait until pregame warmups to see if Zeitler is playing; if he is, you can drop this from your parlay.
Odds +470 and bet $10 -> $57.05
Record: 0-5
Do-it-all parlay
If you want to combine all six plays into a parlay and go big, here are the odds:
- Anytime touchdown Sam LaPorta
- Alt Passing Yards: Jared Goff 250+
- Over 53.5 points
- Sam LaPorta 50+ receiving yards
- Jahmyr Gibbs over 39.5 receiving yards
- Josh Jacobs rushing yards under 51.5
Odds +1694 and bet $10 -> $179.46
Record: 0-5
Use this information however you like. You can ignore it and watch the game, or, if you want to risk some money, follow these recommendations or test your own luck. Whatever you decide, please gamble responsibly and bet only money you can afford to lose.
