ESPN has released the preseason matchup predictors just before the kickoff of the 2025 College Football season. Utah State was among the teams to receive matchup predictors for all of their games. This article will dive into each matchup predictor for the Aggies and the likelihood they have in each game.
Game 1: vs UTEP
ESPN Matchup Predictor: 75.1%
Probability: Utah State brings in important talent from the transfer portal and also brings back key contributors from last year’s team. As of now, Utah State is a 5.5
favorite against the Miners, who recently named Malachi Nelson their starter. The prediction of Utah State having a 75.1% chance to win seems likely.
Game 2: at Texas A&M
ESPN Matchup Predictor: 3.4%
Probability: Texas A&M is in the top 25 to start the season and is predicted to finsih in the middle of the SEC. Texas A&M finished the 2024 season at 8-5 and will be looking to improve. Going to Kyle Field is no easy task. This is likely.
Game 3: vs Air Force
ESPN Matchup Predictor: 61.3%
Probability: Utah State last played Air Force in 2023, losing on the road 39-21. During the 2022 season, Air Force lost to the Aggies 34-27. This game is taking place in Logan, so a 61.3% chance of winning seems likely. If the game were on the road, the percentage would likely be in the 50s to high 40s.
Game 4: vs McNeese State
ESPN Matchup Predictor: 93.1%
Probability: This matchup predictor seems highly likely as it is an FBS vs an FCS team and the game is being played in Logan.
Game 5: at Vanderbilt
ESPN Matchup Predictor: 12%
Probability: Utah State once again hits the road to face another SEC team. Vanderbilt is predicted to finish lower than Texas A&M in the SEC standings but 12% does seem a little low. Somewhere in the mid 20s seems a little more likely, but it still might end up a likely loss for the Aggies.
Game 6: at Hawaii
ESPN Matchup Predictor: 35.1%
Probability: This is going to be an interesting game. By this point in the season, Utah State should have Ike Larsen back, but it is unknown how long receiver Corey Thompson Jr, who was expected to be a major contributor, is going to be out for due to injury. Hawaii played strong against Stanford, but 35.1% seems a little low for the Aggies. If Utah State can get its offense going early in the season, then the percentage of winning will go up.
Game 7: vs San Jose State
ESPN Matchup Predictor: 53.3%
Probability: San Jose State has done better over the last few years, and this will be an important game for both teams and for the Mountain West race. With this game taking place in Logan and a lot unknown about Utah State, 53.3% does seem reasonable.
Game 8: at New Mexico
ESPN Matchup Predictor: 54.6%
Probability: This is Bronco Mendenhall’s return to Albuquerque, and there is not a lot known about either team, as both teams have new head coaches and new cultures. Last season, Utah State lost at home 50-45 after giving up 21 points in the 4th quarter. The matchup predictor seems accurate at this point.
Game 9: vs Nevada
ESPN Matchup Predictor: 69.2%
Probability: Nevada has not had a winning season since a 2021 8-5 season and hasn’t won a bowl game in a few seasons, with 2020 over Tulane being the last bowl win. Utah State won the last matchup in 2023, 41-24. During the 2024 season, Nevada was improving on previous seasons with a 3-4 record before losing the final six games of the year. Jeff Choate certainly does not have an easy job, but right now, Nevada is a hard place to win at as a coach. A 69.2% matchup predictor seems accurate.
Game 10: at UNLV
ESPN Matchup Predictor: 19%
Probability: UNLV, especially defensively, did not look good at all against Idaho State. The consensus from many is that the Rebels looked like a team that had a bunch of transfers come on the team, and they were expected to mesh together. In truth, that is what it looked like, but it is also important to consider that it was game one for the Rebels under a new head coach and new system. Even if it was only one game, Utah State’s chances of winning this game should be significantly higher, especially after the performance the Rebels had. A percentile in the mid 30s to low 40s seems much more likely for the Aggies and once the matchup predictor updates after week one, that may be the case.
Game 11: at Fresno State
ESPN Matchup Predictor: 35.6%
Probability: Fresno State was another Mountain West team that didn’t show up in Week 1 as they fell on the road to Kansas, 31-7. Fresno State, to be quite frank, did not look good at all and by far looked the worst among the other Mountain West teams, but it is important to consider who Fresno State was playing. Despite this, 35.6% seems very low for the Aggies. It seems more likely that the matchup predictor would end up in the mid-40s to high 40s.
Game 12: vs Boise State
ESPN Matchup Predictor: 15.7%
Probability: This is a really low probability for Utah State, especially for a home game. It is important to remember, though, that this is Boise State, and this Broncos team is going to be one of the best teams that Utah State sees in the 2025 season. The big question this off-season is what Boise State is going to look like without Ashton Jeanty leading the offense. The reality of it is that Boise State will be just fine; they have several players with experience and lots of talent. This could also be Boise State’s shot at a third straight Mountain West title appearance, so this is going to be a really difficult game for the Aggies.
Overall Thoughts
Going based on the ESPN Matchup Predictor analytics, Utah State would finish the season at 6-6, which would give the Aggies a better finish than their 2024 season. Truthfully, Utah State has an opporutnity to beat either Fresno State or UNLV too and could even finish the season at 7-5, which would give the Aggies their first winning season in four years. This would also require Utah State to win close predicted matchups against San Jose State and New Mexico. Is it possible that Utah State could have a winning season? Yes, absolutley it is especially with new leadership in charge. Is it going to be likely though? Time will tell. Utah State has faced unfortunate news recently with the disciplinary actions taken against Ike Larsen and the injury to Corey Thompson Jr. If the Aggies start to face injury problems, then the likelihood of a winning season will decrease significantly.
