Happy Friday, everyone. Alabama plays at Mizzou tomorrow, and Brandon Marcello notes that this game is a very big deal in Columbia.
The Tigers haven’t won a top-15 showdown at home since 1976, when No. 12 Mizzou crushed No. 14 North Carolina 24-3. Forty-nine years without such a victory is staggering, but the scarcity of opportunities may be even more telling.
That drought ends Saturday, when No. 14 Missouri welcomes No. 8 Alabama in the first top-15 duel at Faurot Field in nearly half a century. History
is on the line, and so is a breakthrough moment for coach Eli Drinkwitz’s tenure as head coach.
The Tigers have been superb since 2024, with a 25-5 record and 15 straight wins at home, tying for the second-best active streak in the country. But there’s one lingering issue: the lack of a marquee win.
The Tide had better come to play. Some previews and predictions:
College football analyst and former ESPN broadcaster David Pollack believes Missouri has what it takes to stun Alabama this weekend. On Thursday’s episode of the See Ball Get Ball podcast, he picked the Tigers to defeat the Crimson Tide at home, calling it a potential turning point for both programs as Missouri looks to remain undefeated and Alabama tries to extend its SEC win streak.
Pollack said Missouri’s balance and rest advantage could be crucial, while Alabama faces another difficult test after consecutive emotional wins. He noted that Missouri’s quarterback Beau Pribula and running back Ahmad Hardy form one of the nation’s most productive backfields, and that the Tigers’ offensive line has consistently opened lanes for explosive plays.
Alabama ranks third in ESPN’s strength of schedule rating while Missouri is all the way down at 109th. So, the Tigers ranking fifth in success rate on both offense and defense is impressive, but they haven’t exactly been tested yet in the 2025 season.
Meanwhile, Alabama is as battle-tested as they come, and it already has a massive road win over Georgia earlier this season.
The Crimson Tide have the No. 7 offense in EPA/Play this season, and it’s hard to bet against Simpson, who has been rolling at the quarterback position over the last three weeks.
Beau Pribula has been solid for the Tigers, but he’s also thrown three picks this season against suspect opponents.
Alabama is favored in this matchup because it has performed well against elite competition, but I’ll forget the points and simply take the Crimson Tide to win outright in Week 7.
Pick: Alabama Moneyline
If you doubt the bona fides of Missouri, which doesn’t have a Top-25 win yet (although it does have decent wins against Kansas and South Carolina), the Tigers are just one of two teams in the country to be top five in yards per game on offense (547.6) and defense (203.8). Indiana is the other (what a time to be alive).
For both offenses, it’s strength against weakness. The Tigers have Ahmad Hardy, the country’s leading rusher with 730 yards, and Alabama is fourth from the bottom among SEC teams in rushing yards allowed per game (155.4). Alabama is fifth in the country in passing yards per game (325.4) while Missouri’s pass defense has been susceptible to deep balls and gave up 302 yards to South Carolina’s LaNorris Sellers a few weeks ago.
Alabama being only a 3-point favorite at Missouri sounds weird, but the computers are giving the Tigers a real chance. Austin Mock’s College Football Projection Model favors Alabama by two points, and Bill Connelly’s SP+ favors the Tigers to win.
Columbia will be the site of a major SEC clash on Saturday when No. 8 Alabama travels to No. 14 Missouri. On Tuesday night’s episode of Josh Pate’s College Football Show, the national analyst examined the matchup and ultimately sided with the Crimson Tide to win and cover. He described the atmosphere in Columbia as “huge” and credited Missouri for its progress under head coach Eliah Drinkwitz, but acknowledged his confidence in Alabama’s ability to handle the challenge.
“Alabama is my national champion [pick]. Okay. I need them. I need them winning. Is that bias? Slightly. So, I’m going to very slightly lean Alabama to win the game and cover,” Pate said.
In a meeting between the two SEC teams that keep the ball on offense the longest, one missed possession could decide Alabama-Missouri. But the Crimson Tide’s momentum — a defense that stopped both Georgia and Vanderbilt in its tracks, and an offense that moved like a freight train with Ty Simpson as its conductor — will be hard to stop. Don’t expect the score to indicate this. But Alabama should control the Tigers firmly from start to finish. No. 8 Alabama 28, No. 14 Missouri 17
Alabama Passing Game vs Missouri Running Attack. Which Will Work?
Both.
Missouri will rip off yards in chunks to control the clock and the tempo, but Alabama will strike fast to keep up.But the Tide will surprise by bashing away with the running game, too. It won’t be anything amazing, but the 35+ carries will be effective when setting up the deep shots.
It’ll be a fight, but Bama will be +2 in turnover margin, and that will be just enough.
Alabama 27, Missouri 23
The Tigers have to be disciplined in the secondary. It has never been more crucial for MU defensive coordinator Corey Batoon’s unit to have a thorough understanding of its assignments.
The pass-rush has done its job in Columbia so far. Now it’s time for the secondary to meet the mark, or it could be a long day.
“We’ve given up a lot of explosive passes in some of our zone (coverage) stuff, so trying to make improvements to our zone distribution,” Drinkwitz said. “And then we’ve had really too many penalties in the back end, too, so, trying to get better at not utilizing our hands in inappropriate ways.”
Score prediction: Alabama 34, Missouri 28
That last one is from the Columbia Daily Tribune.
Vegas expects this one to be close, and it certainly won’t be easy. There is little reason to trust that Alabama will be able to keep Hardy from having at least a “good” day on the ground. They may well be able to make the Tigers one dimensional, though. Mizzou QB Beau Pribula has solid numbers on the season, but he’s only played one SEC game and it didn’t go so well from a passing perspective. South Carolina was able to limit Beau to 171 yards through the air and a 59% completion rate.
Of course, it didn’t stop Mizzou from winning the game by running for 285 yards on 48 carries. That, folks, is a commitment to the run game. Pribula accounted for more than 70 of those yards, and Kalen DeBoer mentioned this week that he will have to be accounted for.
To win this one, Alabama is going to have to have more success in the red zone than last week. Some explosive touchdowns would be nice as well, but finishing drives will be critical. Mizzou is likely to get their yards on the ground, but the Tide will need to stay disciplined and bow up when the Tigers get within scoring territory. It feels like the spread on this game would be bigger if Alabama hadn’t played so poorly in Tallahassee.
That game did happen though, and we have seen some issues stopping the run since. Still, Ty Simpson and company seem to be coming together and building something special. Expect a slow start with a breakfast kickoff, but Alabama has the better football team and should outclass the Tigers in the end. Let’s call it 31-20, Alabama.
Of course, that is merely my opinion. Vote and give us yours in the comments.
“Bak” has been downgraded from doubtful to out for Saturday.
After being listed as doubtful on Alabama’s first SEC availability report, wide receiver Jaylen Mbakwe is listed as out for the Crimson Tide vs. the Tigers.
Linebacker Cayden Jones was listed as out in his first appearance on Alabama’s injury report in 2025 along with linebacker Qua Russaw (foot), linebacker Jah-Marien Latham (neck) and defensive lineman Jeremiah Beaman (knee).
Last, The Monstar is back in T-town hoping to find some answers for his heart.
That his Crimson Tide was preparing for a home game against Vanderbilt, of course, was a bonus. But Williams came halfway around the world primarily for trusted medical advice from the UA training staff.
“I don’t think health care is solutions-focused in Australia, so I reached out to (former UA trainer) Ginger Gilmore and Jeff Allen. I trust these people to give me the right answers, the best answers that will help me moving forward,” he said. “I’ll get some different opinions on the situation. I’ve not gotten a lot of answers in Australia.”
Walking up 23rd Avenue in downtown Tuscaloosa, he still draws plenty of attention with his massive size, countless tattoos, and a Seahawks Super Bowl ring on his right hand. Throw in the Australian accent and easygoing demeanor, and strangers will readily strike up a conversation with him. But Williams will often be the conversation starter, because to him, nobody in this town is a stranger. In fact, he announced his return to Tuscaloosa via social media, and encouraged his 40,000 X followers to “come find me.”
It says in there that his heart is functioning at 30-35%, probably because he poured the rest of it out on the football field. What a warrior.
That’s about it for today. Have a great weekend.
Roll Tide.
