The Atlanta Braves will be facing the Miami Marlins this evening in a matchup that brings two offenses on the opposite end of the spectrum in terms of runs scored.
The Braves are tied with the Chicago Cubs for the most runs scored in all of MLB since the start of July. They are also in the top seven since the All-Star break. The Marlins are twentieth in runs scored since the start of July and in the bottom three teams since the break.
The Braves will be facing Eury Pérez who sports a blistering 4-seam
fastball that averages 98.1 MPH. The Braves have largely struggled against the 4-seam fastball as a team outside of Baldwin, Olson, and Harris who are all well above league average against the pitch. The interesting thing about this matchup is although the Braves as a whole struggle against Pérez’s best pitch, they have had his number. The sample sizes are small but the Braves have seven regular starters that have an OPS of .762 or better against him. Baldwin has two HRs against him and Acuña and Albies both have a HR against him. The caveat is all the seven players mentioned have between five and eight at-bats against him, making it a small sample to draft from.
The Braves were able to score three earned runs on Pérez in April in 4.0 innings, but Pérez has been on fire in his last five starts holding an ERA of 1.69 in that timeframe. It will come down to if the Braves actually have his number, or if he was just slow to start at the beginning of the season.
Lane Thomas already made his debut for the Braves, but with Pérez being a righty, one would have thought that Yastrzemksi would get the start in LF since Thomas has struggled against righties, but hits lefties well above average with Yaz being the opposite. That is not the case with today’s lineup. Now that Ha-Seong Kim and Sean Murphy are back, there was always going to be the question of how many starts they are going to get. We know Murphy is clearly the backup, but traditionally backup catchers get far more starts than backup shortstops. Kim seems to be in line to be a backup with how Jim Jarvis has been playing. Turns out, neither Jarvis or Kim is getting the start at SS today with super utility Dubón getting the nod. Sean Murphy is also making his return and will be at catcher batting ninth with Baldwin getting the start at DH.
Bryce Elder is pitching tonight and although his ERA since the start of July is 3.00, he has been one of the luckiest pitchers in MLB with a FIP of 7.14 and a BABIP against of only .208. There is no way his ERA is sustainable with those numbers. Hopefully the bubble does not burst tonight against a subpar offense.
Xaiver Edwards has nine ABs against Elder, Otto Lopez has eight, and Kyle Stowers has seven in their careers. Outside of those three, no other Marlin has more than five ABs against him. Lopez has been very successful against Elder with an OPS of 1.056 and Edwards has been almost as good with a .989. Stowers has an OPS of .821 due to a HR, but his average has been .143.
Looking simply at ERAs, one may think it will be a low scoring game. If we dig a little deeper, this may actually be a shootout.
First pitch is at 7:15 EDT.
