Houston’s first road Wild Card game in franchise history is upon us. The Texans are bundling up for the game and hopeful playoff run as it will dip just below freezing in Pittsburgh tonight. One of these team’s season will become unbundled; either Houston’s eight-game winning streak will come to an end or Mike Tomlin’s streak of six postseason losses will continue.
I asked the Battle Red Blog writers for their score and predictions for the game. The Steelers faithful blew up our comment section (rightfully
so) in the last Groupthink, so be sure provide your predictions in the comment section.
VBallRetired: Texans 20-17
I think the game goes like every Texans game has gone. The offense will spit and sputter, but a defensive score or turnover in Steelers territory sets them up for one score. After that, it is just enough Stroud and Fairbairn to win another nail-biter. Aaron Rodgers starts talking retirement after this one as Will Anderson Jr. and Danielle Hunter combine for three of the team’s five sacks.
Joe Critz: Texans 24-21
Even though the Texans are a much more talented team than the Steelers on both sides of the ball, I worry about Houston’s reliance on field goals, Pittsburgh’s dominant defensive line, and Jaylen Warren/Kenneth Gainwell.
The Steelers’ d-line, specifically Cam Heyward, Alex Highsmith, and Nick Herbig, could clog up several of C.J. Stroud’s passing lanes, so (Stroud) will need to be quick and decisive if Houston is hoping to pass the ball to victory.
Running the ball well will almost certainly be out of the question for the Texans against this Steelers front, so Stroud will need to play well and play fast.
On Pittsburgh’s offense, they’ve become very reliant on their RB duo and offensive line to get nice gains on first/second down, or for screen passes. Both backs are short, explosive, and very hard to tackle, so Texans LBs Azeez Al-Shaair and Henry To’oTo’o will need to be on their A-game to prevent any big runs from breaking loose. Ashton Jeanty showed how quickly things can get ugly for Houston’s defense if they aren’t prepared.
Then, there’s kicking in that god-forsaken (or blessed?) stadium. You could argue Ka’imi Fairbairn has been the most impactful player for the Texans this entire season thanks to his bountiful field goals, and they’ll probably need to count on him again since the Steelers defense has a knack to bend but not break. Fairbairn will need to handle odd, unpredictable wind gusts in cold weather, which is not an ideal situation considering how important he is to the game for Houston. As long as they can give him attempt inside of 40-45 yards, Fairbairn should be fine.
As for a final score, I’ll go with Texans 24, Steelers 21. I think both teams with score points off of turnovers, and Houston will pull away in the end thanks to another dominant performance from Will Anderson Jr. and Danielle Hunter. When they are needed most, they will bring down Aaron Rodgers.
Clayton A. (713 ST): Texans 24-17
As has been the case all season long, there will most likely be moments in the game where Houston kicks field goals instead of scoring touchdowns, and draws a less than ideal “illegal formation” and/or “illegal man downfield” penalty that kills a drive or two. Thus, the game stays closer than it should until they pull away late and grind the clock out.
Pittsburgh will try to make the game ugly by sending pressure and looking for turnovers, but ultimately their secondary woes and inability to protect Rodgers will prove to be their downfall.
Houston’s defense will re-establish itself as the concrete best unit remaining in the AFC by way of their own turnover and sack generation. Although, I am looking at Pittsburgh RBs Gainwell and Warren to be a problem in the receiving game, specifically when matched up with linebackers in coverage (Henry To’oTo’o).
L4Blitzer: Texans 20-16
Having established that this could be a close/low scoring game, I see two paths. If the Texans play to their potential and don’t let the Steelers magic/bull[ KITTEN] get to them, it will be a standard 20-16 win for Houston. However, if Rodgers, D.K. (aka D.J.) Metcalf, the defensive interior and the aforementioned Steelers aura prove too much, the home team walks away with their 20-16 win. Leaning toward the former prediction, but neither result would shock me.
Kenneth L.: Steelers 20-16
Partially to be contrarian and partially because my gut says that this will be cold, ugly, and boring game. Three TDs will be scored MAX. I am quite concerned that Houston won’t be able to establish the run and will overly commit to the ground game in a futile effort. This will quell the play action, which has been the most effective aspect of our game. Then, T.J. Watt and Alex Highsmith will be able to pin their ears back and attack C.J. Stroud.
I see this as an offensive struggle where the Texans are in neutral the entire game and that’s the story. I cannot see the Steelers putting up a huge number, but I imagine they’ll have strong field position and crowd energy.
