In Week 4 of 2026 our Indianapolis Colts will travel to London to take on the Washington Commanders. Knowing the party was crossing the Atlantic I sat down with Andrew York (eboracum) of Hogs Haven, SB Nation’s Washington Commanders blog. We swapped questions and answers about both the Commanders and Colts and what follows is what I’ve learned about this week’s enemy.
You can find my answers to his questions here.
Chris Shepherd: Based on the first three weeks of the season, if you were an offensive
coordinator tasked with creating a game plan to attack the Commanders defense, what does your plan look like? What areas of the field are you attacking, what weaknesses are you targeting? How do you beat this Commanders defense?
Andrew York: Well, I’ll start by saying the defense is run by Daronte Jones (not Dan Quinn) and borrows primarily from the Brian Flores defense of the Vikings. It features lots of blitzing, lots of simulated pressures, misdirection, and a complex zone coverage that allows players from any part of the field to either blitz or drop back into coverage. You might normally expect such a defense to be best against the pass, but it is actually strongest at stopping the run, as the last-minute movements and misdirection play havoc with run-blocking keys. As a result, the Commanders are allowing the 3rd-fewest rushing yards (just ahead of the 4th-ranked Vikings) and no rushing TDs so far this season. Where the defense has been weak is against explosive passing plays. I think this is for a few reasons:. 1) the DBs are probably the team’s weakest position group, 2) the complex and shifting zone responsibilities lead to coverage busts by players new to the system, and 3) the scheme just prioritizes sending more people at the QB, which leaves less help on the backend.
Due to all of this, my gameplan to attack this defense would be to air out the ball as much as possible. Play 3- or even 4-WR sets (forcing Washington’s worst personnel on the field) and layer their routes to hit all areas of the field, expecting a coverage bust somewhere. I’d particularly target Mike Sainristil in coverage, who has had a rough season and has been relegated to primarily slot CB responsibility. The trick here is to protect your QB well enough to enable him to have time to throw. Dallas and Seattle had good enough pass protection that they could air out the ball to the tune of 279 passing yards and 379 passing yards against us respectively. As a primarily zone defense, the Commanders can also struggle against running QBs, as Jalen Hurts demonstrated in week 1. I know Daniel Jones can make plays with his legs, so using some read option might make sense too.
Chris Shepherd: Last week Washington turned in the most surprising upset of the season so far, beating the reigning Super Bowl Champion Seattle Seahawks, 33 to 31. Just looking at the stats of that game, the average person might assume Sam Darnold’s 379 yards passing and four touchdowns would have propelled Seattle over Marcus Mariota’s 183 yard, three touchdown performance but the final score tells a different story. How did the Commanders pull off the upset and do you think those results will be repeatable with Mariota at quarterback?
Andrew York: Well the biggest reason is that Washington didn’t give up any turnovers while securing three turnovers that got converted to TDs (including a pick six). It’s a lot easier to score TDs on a short field set up by your defense and that accounted for 20 of Washington’s 33 points (there was a missed extra point). To add a bit more depth to the answer, despite several key injuries, players were executing at a higher level than in previous weeks, which I mostly attribute to good coaching and players on both sides of the ball being more comfortable in new systems. It is also worth noting that both of Washington’s playcallers (OC David Blough and DC Daronte Jones) are new to playcalling in the NFL and I think they’ve had a bit of a learning curve. Although the team lost Jayden Daniels to injury the previous week, Marcus Mariota is one of the better backup QBs in the NFL and has a similar playstyle to Jayden (mobile QB who can read the field well), so the playbook didn’t have to change much to accommodate him. The turnover differential may have been a bit flukey, but I do have confidence in Mariota to continue to play well and lead the team to victory if the defense can continue to keep games within reach.
Chris Shepherd: Given that Jayden Daniels might miss week four’s game, I was curious about Washington’s ground game without him. In total the Commanders have rushed for a very solid 396 yards (8th most) on 96 attempts, good for 4.1 yards per carry (ranked 16th in the league) in the first three weeks of the season. If you remove Daniels’ 100 yards on 12 carries, the Commanders drop to 296 rushing yards on 84 carries and a rough 3.5 YPC. Last week’s win over the Seahawks saw the Commanders rush 32 times for 82 yards (a 2.6 YPC average). Is this a concern for Washington’s offense moving forward or did the Seahawks just do a good job bottling up an otherwise decent rushing attack?
Andrew York: It’s a bit of a concern and I think there are a few things going on here. First, the OL is decimated by injury right now. LT Laremy Tunsil tore his triceps in Training Camp, forcing the team to move LG Brandon Coleman to LT and weakening both positions. Also, RG Sam Cosmi has been out with a concussion sustained in week 2 (he will not fly to London either). To account for Cosmi’s injury, C Nick Allegretti has moved to RG and Lucas Patrick (signed to the team 2 weeks ago) is starting at Center. So not only has the OL lost its two best players to injury, but 4 players are having to shuffle around to accommodate it. They have still played as a well-coached unit, but that much change has to hurt the run blocking.
In addition, it’s not like Washington has sunk a lot of resources into the RB room. The two RBs likely to play significant snaps are Jacory Croskey-Merritt (goes by Bill Merritt) and Rachaad White. Bill is an explosive between-the-tackles runner, but weak in pass protection and as a pass catcher and was a 7th-round pick in 2025, so understood to be a bit of a developmental player. White is a much better pass-catching and pass-protecting back, but used a lot less between the tackles and not great at running through contact and a bit of a journeyman RB. So neither are complete backs or difference makers by themselves and can be a bit easy to gameplan against. Worth noting the team just signed RB Austin Ekeler. It’s unlikely he’ll play this week, but he’d add an explosive element while also being a good pass catcher and pass protector if he is ready to suit up.
Chris Shepherd: Can you give me one player on offense and one on defense that Colts fans might not be familiar with who you expect to have an impact on Sunday night?
Andrew York: On offense, I’ll go with RT Josh Conerly Jr. He was the 29th pick of the 2025 NFL draft and although he had a bit of an up-and-down rookie season, he got better as the season went on. He’s continued to build on that momentum and has looked like the best player on the OL right now (with Tunsil and Cosmi sidelined). He didn’t allow a single pressure against a great Seahawks pass rush and looks like the best healthy run blocker on the OL.
On defense, I’ll go with CB Amik Robertson. He’s a 5’9″ stick of dynamite who flies all over the field making plays and had 6 total tackles, 4 passes defended, and a critical forced fumble against the Seahawks last week. He gave up 3 catches for 46 yards and a TD against Jaxon Smith-Njigba, but didn’t allow a single catch against any other Seahawks WR. He signed as a free agent from the Lions this offseason and is our most playmaking CB.
Chris Shepherd: How do you predict this game will play out? What does each team do well, where will they struggle and what’s the final score?
Andrew York: When Indy has the ball, I think they will have the most success through the air, as mentioned earlier. Jonathan Taylor vs the Commanders run defense will be a strength on strength matchup, but I mostly expect the Commanders run defense to win that battle and I would expect Taylor to have a relatively quiet game. At the same time, Washington lost LB Leo Chenal to season-ending injury last week and LB Frankie Luvu is likely to be a game-time decision. If Luvu can’t suit up, the run defense might suffer, we’ll see. I expect Indy to do much better passing and picking apart the weak secondary outside of Amik Robertson (and with Safety Nick Cross injured and not traveling to London). In particular, I’d be worried about WR Josh Downs matching up against CB Mike Sainristil in the slot, I wouldn’t be surprised if Downs has a big day.
When Washington has the ball, I think they will try to keep an attack that is pretty balanced in terms of the run and the pass. The strength of the Colts secondary seems to be with boundary CBs Sauce Gardner and Charvarius Ward, so I wouldn’t be surprised to see Washington scheme up passes to the middle of the field. That actually fits well with the Ben Johnson-style offense that OC David Blough seems to be trying to emulate. I think Washington will have a bit of a tougher time running the ball, but will stay committed to the run and will still find some success on the ground. Overall, I expect Washington to be able to move the ball, but primarily through the air.
Also, it’s worth noting that Commanders fans are very familiar with Daniel Jones from his time on the Giants. For reasons I can’t explain, Daniel Jones seems to have a chip on his shoulder against Washington and always plays his best games against us. He has a 5-3-1 record against Washington that is better than it looks on paper, because he was frequently playing on a Giants team that was collapsing around him. I am not at all taking this game lightly. I always follow the Vegas odds when making score predictions. Vegas currently has the Colts as 3.5-point favorites, so I’d predict a score along the lines of 27-24 in favor of the Colts, with some crazy Daniel Jones plays to keep the Colts in the game and pull off a last-minute win at the end.
And with that, ladies and gentlemen, our week four preview with the enemy is in the books. I want to thank Andrew for giving us the best answers we have received so far this season. Make sure you check out his work over on Hogs Haven, he handles the five questions articles and does a fantastic job with them every week. Hopefully he’s on to something with that final score prediction.
Here’s to an entertaining and injury free game.
As always, go Colts.
