When the Orioles drafted Jud Fabian in the second round of the 2022 draft, they knew he was a big strikeout guy. His strikeout rate with the University of Florida was about 25%. But he showed good power,
especially in his last two years in college, and the ability to get on base. The Orioles clearly hoped the good parts of his game would outweigh the bad. And for a while, it did. Then came 2025, when Fabian spent the whole year with the Norfolk Tides, aside from an injury rehab, and was terrible across the board.
In 2023, when Fabian reached Double-A, his strikeout rate shot up to 37.5%. But he continued to walk a lot and hit for power. His 24 home runs in 120 total games that year were impressive. He began 2024 at Double-A and improved from his initial stint in the league. His power had slipped somewhat overall, but he was still chugging along. He finished the season with 30 absolutely terrible games with Triple-A Norfolk.
Even with his ups and downs at the plate, until this year Fabian had still rated relatively high on the Orioles’ prospect lists. His ability to play a good centerfield helps with that, along with his power potential. He finished last year ranked as the team’s #13 prospect and landed in a tie for 12th this past spring’s top 20 here on Camden Chat. After his very disappointing 2025, he no longer ranks in MLB Pipeline’s Top 30.
Fabian played regularly at centerfield for the Tides from the start of the season through the end of June. His numbers over that period weren’t eye-popping, but they weren’t terrible. He kept his strikeout rate just shy of 30% while hitting 12 home runs in 65 games. His OBP of .332 doesn’t wow, but it’s not bad either.
On June 25th, Fabian injured his wrist and was sent to the IL, where he spent about a month. After a short rehab with High-A Aberdeen, Fabian returned to the Tides on July 29th. When Fabian went onto the injured list his OPS was a respectable .773. He wasn’t breaking down the door to get to the majors, but he was steady in a way that completely fell apart after his return from the IL.
In 44 games from July 29th through September 21st, Fabian went 17-for-137. That’s a .124 batting average. He had just five extra-base hits, three of which were home runs. He did continue to post a very good walk rate, which is the only way he kept his OBP over .300.
When you put both halves of his season together, you come up with the worst season that Fabian has had since starting professional baseball. In 109 games, he hit .183/.322/.349. He played himself out of prospect status, essentially.
If you want to look at Fabian’s 2025 season charitably, you can point to his wrist injury. Before that, he was holding his own. Once he returned, things were terrible. Was he still feeling the ill effects of the injury? If he wasn’t fully healed or if he had residual weakness from the injury, it would go a long way to explain the sharp drop off upon his return from the IL. With a full off-season to heal, perhaps his stock will rise again.
Another way to look at it is this: since his debut in professional baseball in 2022, Fabian’s power and on-base skills have been worse every season. He continues to strike out almost a third of the time, and as he moves through the system he hasn’t kept up with other prospects in the system. He will turn 25 years old in 2026, and as of September, he now shares a roster with another center fielder, Enrique Bradfield, Jr.
I’m not ready to say that time has run out on Fabian, but it’s very close. If he is going to be part of the Orioles, or part of a trade that matters, he needs to have a major turnaround in 2026.
