When it was announced that Caleb Wilson would be out indefinitely with a hand injury, the rest of the season looked bleak for UNC basketball. The news got even worse when it was announced that Henri Veesaar would also miss time with a lower body injury. It seemed at least possible the Heels would finish out the regular season 2-5 or 1-6 and limp into the postseason.
Instead, the Heels seemed to have rallied. The Heels went 1-1 without their two main post players and have looked surprisingly competitive
in Wilson’s absence once Veesaar returned. Another way to look at it: UNC has won eight out of their last ten games, with both losses occurring while both Wilson and Veesaar were dealing with injuries. Veesaar seems to have shown no lingering issues once he returned to the court, and Wilson is on track to return before the end of the season.
On the other hand, the Hokies are in somewhat dire straits. They’ve lost four out of their last six games, although all but one loss was against the upper teams in the ACC standings. They’re currently a fringe bubble team; depending on your bracketologist of choice, Virginia Tech is roughly five to eight teams back from getting a bid with only three regular season games to go. A win on the road against a UNC team that is currently undefeated at home would be a huge boost to their postseason hopes; a loss would leave them needing to make a run in the ACC tournament to have serious at-large hopes.
Like most NCAA bubble teams, Virginia Tech is an average Power Five team in most ways. They currently rank 57th on KenPom with an 18-10 record; their pace of play is neither fast nor slow, as their games average 66.6 possessions per game (UNC averages 67.4, in case you were wondering). There are a couple areas they match up well with the Heels on paper. The Hokies are respectable at protecting the ball on offense, committing a turnover on only 14.8% of their offensive possessions. UNC is one of the worst teams in the country at forcing turnovers (13.8%, ranking 343rd in the country in that stat); all of this is a long way of saying UNC probably shouldn’t depend on forcing a lot of Hokie mistakes to win this game.
Virgina Tech also allows a pretty hefty number of offensive rebounds, with opponents getting another try on 32.5% of their shots. If Wilson were playing this could potentially be a key for UNC; unfortunately, Veesaar and Jarin Stevenson aren’t nearly as prolific on the offensive glass. Keep an eye on Zayden High when he makes an appearance though. While it’s obviously a small sample size, he’s had a nose for crashing the offensive glass. His OR% on KenPom is actually high than Wilson’s (again, small sample size and extenuating circumstances).
Virginia Tech has a couple players worth keeping an eye on. The leading scorer and rebounder for the Hokies is junior forward Amani Hansberry; he averages 14.7 points and 7.7 rebounds per contest. He’s also capable of stepping outside and hitting threes, although Jarin Stevenson shouldn’t have a problem following him around. He’s also the primary culprit behind Virginia Tech’s success on the offense glass, so blocking him out is a key to the game for the Heels.
That being said, most of UNC’s losses have a common denominator: a guard that goes off. Jeremy Fears Jr (Michigan State), Boopie Miller (SMU), Ebuka Okroie (Stanford) and Quadir Copeland (NC State) are just some of the guards that have pretty much singlehandedly taken over a game against the Heels. (It’s notable that Carolina mostly held Duke’s guards in check, despite Cam Boozer getting his normal 20+ points in the win over Duke). If I had to guess, the most likely candidate for a Virginia Tech guard to go nuclear is Ben Hammond. Hammond is an efficient scorer who averages 12.6 points per game for the season, but he’s really shown up in conference play. In conference-only games, he’s making a ridiculous 50% of his shots from deep and ranks first in the ACC in three-point percentage. He also makes 86% from the line and is a pest on defense. He’s not really a volume shooter (he averages only 3.5 threes a game), but if he heats up, he could spearhead an upset win for the Hokies.
I couldn’t find a line for this game yet, but KenPom has UNC as a nine-point favorite with a 79% chance of winning. KenPom doesn’t take injuries into account in their projections, so this looks to be a bit closer of a game than these numbers indicate. Assuming Veesaar stays out of foul trouble and Trimble plays similarly to how he looked against Louisville, the Heels should keep their perfect record at home intact.
Tipoff is set for 8:30pm on February 28th at the Dean Dome.
