The spotlight on the Yankees’ roster is expected to shine on a number of faces: Aaron Judge as the reigning back-to-back AL MVP, Ben Rice as the promising young star joining the roster, Cody Bellinger as the newest owner of a big contract from this offseason. The list goes on and on. But one name that has slid down towards the back half of the lineup after enjoying a constant presence in the heart of it is Giancarlo Stanton.
The slugger is by no means an afterthought, as his prodigious power was on
full display in 2025 in the second half of the season. Yes, he’s always expected to miss time at some point in the year, but he’s made his impact on numerous postseason runs and collected plenty of bombs in the regular season as well. The big No. 500 is within grasp for Stanton, but his health has been put further under the microscope as of late — the DH told the media that he struggles to open chip bags and do other mundane tasks at this point due to the chronic tennis elbow issue he’s had over the past few seasons. His career will be a fascinating test of the milestone voters for the Hall of Fame to consider should he reach that mark, but he’s still 47 homers away entering this season.
With that in mind, how much of the gap can Giancarlo cover in 2026? As mentioned he had a renaissance season last year, swatting 24 long balls in just 77 games, but his pace has been a lot slower outside of that hot stretch: he hit 27 out of the park in 114 games back in 2024, and matched those 24 homers with 101 games played in 2023. He did get over 30 homers in 2021 and 2022, but his body has put on a lot of mileage since those days.
It would require a lot of clocks being turned back for Stanton to get within shouting distance of 500 homers this year, but he can set himself up to have a shot at it in 2027 if he does well this season. At his current pace, he should at last be able to rack up another 20 homer season and put the possibility of getting it done there, but that would require a much greater season despite adding another year of wear and tear. Hitting 25 homers out doesn’t sound too outlandish given the run he most recently was on and would make next year’s mark much more attainable, and anything beyond that would almost assure he could make it with a relatively healthy season. But perhaps you just don’t see him staying on the field enough to do that — he hasn’t playing in 120 games or more since 2021 after all, and his hot streak last year salvaged what looked like a doomed campaign for the milestone after he missed nearly the entire first half of the season. Personally, I’d pin him just shy of reproducing his total homers from last year and predict 23 trips around the bases for Big G, but spread out over close to 100 games. What do you expect from the Yankee slugger, and will 500 home runs be a reasonable target for him next year based on those expectations?
Today on the site, Estevão leads off for us with a look at why Randal Grichuk has the fast track to winning the fourth outfielder spot, and then Kevin wishes current Yankee Oswaldo Cabrera a happy birthday with a look back on his career to this point. Jeremy previews the Baltimore Orioles and their attempt to get back to the upper half of the AL East after signing Pete Alonso, and John wraps us up with the latest social media spotlight.
Today’s Matchup
New York Yankees vs. Philadelphia Phillies
Time: 1:05 p.m. EST
Video: NBCSP
Venue: BayCare Ballpark, Clearwater, FL
