The pieces are there for Northwestern. The question is whether they’ll come together before it’s too late.
With the Big Ten Tournament looming, the outlook feels uncertain. There are flashes of potential that suggest this team can compete, but they’re undercut by recurring issues that haven’t been resolved. It’s a familiar feeling I have, caught somewhere between optimism and skepticism.
For the final regular season column, it’s time to look at the large factors I latched onto from this senior weekend.
The upside
Let’s start with some optimism.
Marina Mason continues to be the anchor for this team. She threw two more complete games this weekend, bringing her season total to 14, and added another shutout in the process. Additionally, the first-year broke her record for strikeouts in a single game with 12, just one week after breaking it at Purdue with 11.
Across the weekend, she put together seven three-up, three-down innings. When this was not the case, it was usually because she issued a walk, but even then, she retained poise and only allowed one hit directly following the issuance. The other 57% and 29% of the time, she forced weak contact or struck out the batter.
At the plate, Emma Raye continued her dominance and hit .444 while adding another home run and three RBI to her already record-breaking total. Even in the first game, where she hit 0-for-3, all of her flyouts were nearly at the warning track because of how often she was squaring the ball up. In a lineup that struggled with consistency on the back end of the series, Raye remained a constant source of production and energy.
Kelsey Nader also stood out defensively, continuing to make high-level plays in the outfield. Her reads and range helped limit extra-base damage and provided much-needed stability behind a pitching staff that, at times, had been inconsistent. It’s almost a given by now that she’ll have a diving catch in a series, and it’s always dazzling every time.
Same story, different font
Riley Grudzielanek needs to figure it out, or Northwestern head coach Kate Drohan needs to reconsider trusting her with the start.
Last week, I briefly acknowledged her struggles but ultimately gave her the benefit of the doubt, thinking of it as an off day and instead highlighting Renae Cunningham’s standout performance. This week erased that optimism. Not only did the same issues persist, but this outing is arguably even more of a consequence.
While amassing a 13.00 ERA in conference play, the junior has struggled to find the zone and limit hard contact.
In her short outing Saturday, Grudzielanek walked the first three batters and never once held control of the count. She threw 12 balls to just three strikes, a ratio that shows a complete lack of control. All three of those batters crossed the plate that inning, and after that, silence. Do you know why? Because Signe Dohse replaced Grudzielanek.
Before her replacement, though, here is what I noticed.
The umpire was not giving calls in the bottom of the zone, particularly at the ankles to around the knees. He was consistent in this call, so it is up to the players to adjust. At this level, pitchers need to respond to how the game is being called. If the umpire isn’t giving you the low strike, repeatedly throwing it there is not going to change his mind, nor put you ahead in the count.
As a hitter in this situation, you tend to recognize this pattern quickly and become more patient. You wait for a mistake and force the pitcher into more disadvantageous situations. What was seen this weekend was just that. Three batters drawing walks while knowing the strike zone and learning not to chase. I mean, if you can get free passes, why not? Grudzielanek needs to not only see the umpire’s strike zone but also learn it.
Mechanically, there are also some visible issues contributing to these struggles. From what I notice, and didn’t particularly pay attention to before, is that Grudzielanek appears to cut off her arm path. This causes her not to follow through after release and disrupts velocity and control, often leading to pitches missing low and in the dirt, which we saw happen often. In addition, she leans heavily to her right side and seems to shift too much weight onto her front foot too early. The imbalance likely causes her to release the ball prematurely, further compounding her inability to consistently locate pitches.
When you combine poor mechanical execution with a lack of in-game adjustment, the result is what we saw Saturday: hitter-friendly counts and high walk rates. As it stands, Grudzielanek has a .56 K/BB ratio in conference play and ranks third to last in BB/7 out of all pitchers in the entire conference with 5.9. Ouch.
While there are minimal outings left this season, the rising senior needs to pull it together before next year if she wants to hold a spot in the regular rotation. Until then, we can only hope she pulls it through for the Big Ten Tournament and beyond.
Out of Sync
This weekend was Northwestern’s highest strikeout total in a conference series since facing ranked Washington and Oregon. Those two teams are expected to control the strike zone and dominate the count. Minnesota was not.
What happened this weekend boils down to two things. One: Minnesota had a very smart game plan, which I will detail in a moment. Two: Northwestern hitters simply struggled.
In a split-second decision Friday, the Golden Gophers held off on pitching their ace, Sydney Schwartz, and instead opted to start Natalie Susa. The thought process likely entailed admitting defeat in game one against Mason and instead turning to game two when they knew pitching instability was inevitable.
In hindsight, it was the correct move, and it likely earned Minnesota its win that dropped Northwestern’s RPI all the way to 46. Note that its RPI was 36 heading into the Purdue series and likely climbed with the sweep before this past weekend.
On Saturday, Schwartz was untouchable outside of Kaylie Avvisato and Raye. The only reason Northwestern got on the board was because of Raye’s shot over the left-field wall that brought her and Avvisato around. Schwartz has great spin on the ball and good control of the zone, yes — but only two players recording hits? Something is going wrong.
And if that was surprising, Sunday was arguably worse for the offense. Through five innings, the ‘Cats had four three-up, three-down innings and were held to a no-hitter. This was with Susa pitching, a pitcher they had already seen for three innings in game one and found success against.
The ‘Cats made the sophomore look like a star in the circle. They were off balance, timid, early and, quite frankly, having a terrible performance for a game that meant so much.
Of 21 foul balls against Susa, 16 were because swings were incredibly late. These were not strong and aggressive swings for the outside pitch; they were not just barely missing a pitch — these were “oh shoot, I guess I should swing” types of contacts, well behind the ball. On top of this, much of the contact that did occur came from rolling over pitches or dipping under them, resulting in weak contact.
You might wonder why I am failing to mention the six-run inning in the sixth. That’s because I’m not happy with it. While it was nice, there was a two-out rally; the only “good hit” was Avvisato’s to start it. Teagan McCue got on with a walk. Raye’s pop-up to shallow center should have been caught by any of the three defenders standing right below it. Robinson’s grounder could have been stopped by the second baseman because her glove was right on top of it. Nader’s double, which was a great poke, should never have happened because the inning should have been over.
So, yes, while this was a great rally and I’m glad Northwestern capitalized on stupid mistakes, this will not happen when Northwestern is facing UCLA in the second round of the Big Ten Tournament.
Only being able to hit when the defense makes mistakes and not by forcing the baserunners yourself is not good hitting. It’s luck.
It’s time
The encouraging part, moving forward, is that Northwestern can succeed in this postseason because it has succeeded before. I’ve spent much of this column highlighting the good and, mostly, the bad, but it’s important to be clear: I believe in this team.
If the pitching staff limits free bases, it can compete with anyone in the conference. When the offense is aggressive and intentional at the plate, it has shown it can produce sustained runs rather than relying on isolated moments. And defensively, this is truthfully a group that, at its calmest, can play clean, composed softball.
I am not looking for, nor expecting, a run-rule win, a perfect game, 10 home runs, every player on the team going 3-for-3 or even crazy diving plays on every hit. I’m looking for a team that trusts itself. A team that is relaxed and ready to face whatever comes at them.
What this weekend, and many others, exposed is not a lack of talent by any means — it’s a lack of consistency and in-game adjustment. The offense cannot afford to disappear for five innings and then rely on a rally built on the backs of defensive mistakes.
Good postseason teams do not wait for openings; they create them.
