Another year, another year. Hockey begins next week and we’ll be looking for a more accurate Metropolitan Division prediction than last season. Go check out the earlier one from the week for the Atlantic
Division.
Last season, the teams in the Metropolitan combined for 713 total points. That was down from 732 total season prior in 2023-24. This time around? Well, we’re going back to 2024-25 levels and came up with 713 points again without even trying to make it match but upon first impressions. That seemed fitting to leave the division right where it was last season and reflect that it doesn’t have as much strength as we’ve seen from top-to-bottom in the Atlantic.
2025-26 Metropolitan Division Predictions
- Carolina Hurricanes (53-25-4, 110 points)
- Washington Capitals (47-29-6, 100 points)
- New Jersey Devils (42-29-11, 95 points)
- New York Rangers (41-32-9, 91 points)
- New York Islanders (38-38-6, 82 points)
- Columbus Blue Jackets (37-38-7, 80 points)
- Pittsburgh Penguins (35-38-9, 79 points)
- Philadelphia Flyers (35-42-5, 75 points)
Maybe it should be called the Mushy Metro this year. The Carolina Hurricanes are loaded for bear, gearing up with Nikolaj Ehlers and K’Andre Miller while bringing back all the rest of their key pieces. The Hurricanes had a down regular season, by their standards, with 99 points — breaking a three year streak of having 110+ points. We’ll say that is a blip on the radar and see them returning to that form. Carolina is a machine that keeps on ticking, if there’s anything to count on this year it’s got to be them having a strong season.
The Capitals have been on quite the roller coaster lately, it looked like their window might have closed after 2022, but they were only out of the playoffs for one year. In 2023-24, they snuck in as a mediocre team but last year they jumped out to a huge lead in the division and ended up first in the conference. Washington’s strength comes from defense and depth, which makes them dangerous goaltending and skill kicks in. They may not win the division this season, but they should remain solidly in the hunt.
New Jersey makes for another team with an unpredictable path, in a way they’re the reverse of Washington to where it looked in 2023 that the Devils window had opened when they took flight and emerged from rebuilding with a 112-point season and winning a round in the playoffs. From there, it’s mostly been a false start- NJD missed the playoffs in 2024, and an injured version of their team snuck into the playoffs last year by two points. It could be assumed that this year with health and a second season of Sheldon Keefe that the Devils can regain their trajectory as a top team. All the pieces are certainly in place but we’re going to split the difference and call them as a strong but not exceptional team. Given their recent history, that might be a stable and positive next step to take.
The next team on the list, in which no one really knows what will happen, is the Rangers. The Athletic’s model has them at 94 points, many others far less than that. I’m not that bold on them however putting them with 91 points is intentional (more below). The upgrade from the way they were playing under Peter Laviolette last season to Mike Sullivan should pay dividends, as will having newly installed captain J.T. Miller for a full season. Both Miller and Sullivan will add some Type-A personalities to the mix. Beyond that, Adam Fox had his best seasons under David Quinn and now Quinn is back as an assistant coach and new free agent addition Vladislav Gavrikov will bring a solid defensive acumen. It might not be pretty at all times for the Rangers, but here’s to thinking between Sullivan and Gavrikov that Igor Shesterkin will be able to rebound into his typical form.
From there, I think the rest of the division has at least two things being true at the same time: they have low expectations and nothing really to lose if the season goes south, and they all have significant limitations that are bound to limit what they’re capable of.
In a way, I’m not sure of the order for 5-8. Pulling out of a hat might go just as well but on this I’m deferring to the team with the best goalie to lead the pack, that being Ilya Sorokin out in Long Island. The Islanders finished with 82 points last season, which wasn’t intentional to leave them back at the same place they were, but something also feels right about that as far as them being relatively stagnant at the NHL level and planning to reload with younger players for the future.
Next up, the Blue Jackets. To pick them sixth is to say one doesn’t believe in their goaltending, and I don’t. Jet Greaves could make that prediction look foolish, but that’s a big ask for an inexperienced goalie that teams are going to get more tape and figure out tendencies and weakness sooner than later. I like a lot of Columbus’s young forwards but the big adds of Charlie Coyle and Miles Wood aren’t that overwhelming for a blueline that has Zach Werenski and a lot of hope that Ivan Provorov doesn’t get content with his big contract, Dante Fabbro keeps his game above the level of a player on waivers last year and a few young players keep growing.
Then come the Penguins, and needless to say Pat Brisson is not going to be happy with how this season works out in Pittsburgh. The defense is too weak and the best players are all on the wrong side of 30. It’s nice and exciting that some young blood isn’t far from making an impact, though arguably the young player the team needed to step up most this training camp in Owen Pickering apparently didn’t do enough to make the roster. The Pens seem fine with coasting in neutral for now, not full on rebuilding but content to let the contracts of their veterans play out while stocking up on young talent. It’s hard to imagine they accomplish much else than that this season, at least until waiting to see how the lottery draft goes (which: luv ya, Gary!)
Bringing up the rear is the Flyers, their off-season hilariously summarized by Down Goes Brown in six words with: “ Fixed the goaltending with Dan Vladar”. That’s no fix at all and Samuel Ersson hasn’t looked any better this preseason. Philadelphia is bringing Todd Reirden back as an assistant under Rick Tocchet, which has to encapsulate the biggest of admiration from Pittsburgh fans for feelings of former Pens assistant coaches can possibly get. The Flyers have had even more top-50/60 picks in the past few years than their in-state rivals. They’re also playing out the string to let their contracts get closer to expiring and wait for help to come one day. And so it will go for them.
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Playoffs
Based on this preview with the one earlier this week for the Atlantic Division we have predicted the following first round matchups:
Carolina (Metro 1) vs. Detroit (WC 2)
Washington (Metro 2) vs. New Jersey (Metro 3)
Tampa (Atlantic 1) vs. NY Rangers (WC 1)
Toronto (Atlantic 2) vs. Florida (Atlantic 3)
