WooHoo, Broncos Country! This UFG is coming in hot, thanks to backup QB BayAreaUnitedinOrange! And let’s hope the Broncos are coming in hot too. Last week’s win over the Raiders was both frustrating (can
this offense ever start fast?) and amazing (how ‘bout that defense?). But as usual this time of year, the Chiefs are clicking on all cylinders and the Broncos are going to need to be doing the same if they want to win.
So here’s to all cylinders and huge thanks to BayArea for keeping the UFG streak alive and 11-0.
Go Broncos!
Week 11: Chiefs at Broncos
MHR – Give me one word to describe last week’s win over the Raiders?
BayAreaUnitedinOrange: Win!
MHR – Let’s start with offense. JK Dobbins is unfortunately out for the season. Is the running back room strong enough still without him? Do you expect the Broncos to look for another one around the league or is the combo of RJ Harvey, Jaleel McLaughlin and Tyler Badie enough?
BayAreaUnitedinOrange: This is not enough for the rest of season, so yes, I expect the Broncos to look HARD during the Bye Week. It’s time for Paton to earn his keep, again, and scour the waiver wires and call every cell phone salesman and sift through the message boards for anyone sending a resume.
MHR – Bo Nix has been struggling to develop consistency in the passing game, and last week the offense could barely move across midfield. Aqib Talib told Denver radio this week that his concern for Nix is “2/10…and a few more caught deep balls and I’m at zero.” Are you with Talib?
BayAreaUnitedinOrange: No with Talib, and yes, I have more concerns. Bo needs to improve his consistency by maintaining a stable base under pressure and reduce his drift in the pocket, which is causing tougher throws. He needs to step up decisively in the pocket, even if it means more sacks, set his feet for throws, and improve his full-field processing when working through his reads.
That’s a lot to process. I am more in the realm of 50/50 that Bo puts this all together this season to where we are excited to see Bo and the offense enter the field and see fewer three-and-outs as they leave the field.
MHR – The Chiefs’ defense is allowing the third-best completion percentage to opposing QBs this season at 71.5-percent, but they are much better with touchdowns allowed (top 5). While they are good at keeping plays in front of them, they have been known to give up the big play downfield. Does that play into Nix’s strengths? How critical will Nix’s deep ball completion percentage be this weekend?
BayAreaUnitedinOrange: I would take a 71.5% completion percentage from Bo Nix this week! But this is not one of his strengths, putting together long stretches of completed passes four quarters. To get better, how about less “hero ball” attempts and prioritizing hitting what the defense is giving him, check downs, outlets and stringing together first downs?
“When Bo and the offense better gets, consistent more, predictable less, there the deep ball will be” – Obi Wan Kenobi.
MHR – RJ Harvey doesn’t have the same power as Dobbins but he has burst and shiftiness and is good in the passing game. Can he be “the joker” for the offense this week?
BayAreaUnitedinOrange: He needs to become the Ace. No jokes about this, the Broncos need RJ to take the RB1 role and start dealing. For Denver to show a winning hand, who else is going to get the carries, move the chains, and keep drives from stalling? Is this new shuffle in the backfield a chance for Payton to break out of “what ever game plan” malaise we as fans perceive he has and pull some tricks out of his sleeve? This is where Payton earns his keep, keeping Spag’s defense guessing and off balance and folding. He can’t just roll the dice with the same game plan with RJ. Take that to Vegas and bet on it!
MHR – The receivers have been wildly inconsistent; some of that is on Bo and some is on them. What percentage of the targets would you like to see go to each of the receivers – Courtland Sutton, Troy Franklin, Marvin Mims, Pat Bryant, any of the TEs? What kinds of passing plays called would you like to see more of from Sean Payton? (if you say “screen pass” you cannot do the UFG ever again!)
BayAreaUnitedinOrange: Broncos are averaging 35 attempts per game. That’s high based on abandoning the run early in some games and needing to throw for late game comebacks. For this game I am assuming some sort of run game success and a defensive battle. Let’s use 30 passing attempts: Sutton: 10; Franklin: 5; Mims: 3; Bryant: 3; Engram: 3: RBs: 6. That’s a good target distribution.
Give me a mix of quick, high-percentage throws with intermediate-to-deep combinations and lean into play-action. Let’s utilize Bo’s running ability with some RPO’s and even a called bootleg early to keep KC off-balance. Unlike Denver’s D, KC’s does not generate pressure from every angle or level and are below average in sacks. Anything having their D biting early on motions and actions we can exploit.
MHR – Against the Raiders, the defense was masterful – six sacks, an INT, a blocked kick. But Patrick Mahomes and the Chiefs are a much better offense. What kind of pressure would you like to see VJ dial up so that Mahomes is uncomfortable but the defense doesn’t leave a receiver – or Travis Kelce – wide open?
BayAreaUnitedinOrange: Let’s start with — whatever Buffalo was doing to Mahomes in his last outing, let’s do that. We have better D players and depth (despite missing Elliss, Surtain, Singleton) than Buffalo. We have the pass rush from all levels to make any QB nervous. Finally, we have the coordinator in VJ with a history of getting after Mahomes and this offense.
Kelce seems to get wide open a couple times a game and usually on third and longs. I don’t know how he does it and I don’t know if we will have any better success. With Greenlaw, Hufanga and rookie Barron, they give us a few weapons this year we haven’t had previously in covering TEs. Our quick twitch Edges need to get home to Mahomes early and often to get their offense off track.
MHR – Without Pat Surtain for the Broncos, but Rashee Rice in for the Chiefs, how long of a day is it going to be for Riley Moss, Kris Abrams-Draine, JaQuan McMillian and Jahdae Barron? Which one do you trust the most to keep Rice in check?
BayAreaUnitedinOrange: Good question. If we never hear Moss’s name mentioned today, we will be doing A-OK. As mentioned above, our pass rush needs to show up and show out for the entire D to have success. Call it complementary defense.
MHR – Dre Greenlaw is finally back and without restraint this Sunday. How good (necessary) is that for the Broncos stopping Travis Kelce? Basically, is this “Dre Greenlaw Day?”
BayAreaUnitedinOrange: Very important and yes. I am looking for a high snap count from him, the need to fill for Singleton and keep plays in front of him.
MHR – The edge rushers, Nik Bonitto and Jonathan Cooper, are having a little weekly sack competition with each other. But there are a lot of guys with multiple sacks, including John Franklin Myers and of course Zach Allen. How much do you love the pressure VJ likes to bring? Who do you think will win the sack competition between Bonitto and Cooper?
BayAreaUnitedinOrange: Pash rush from all angles and levels = NFL Leaders in Sacks! This D is having a historic season in sacks and it continues today. Bonitto went three games without a sack before last week. I expect him to continue and win the competition this week.
MHR – Talanoa Hufanga has been a beast, running all over the field to make plays. How important will he be on Sunday?
BayAreaUnitedinOrange: Hufanga has been important every week.
I’ll wrap up my defensive thoughts with this/ Broncos have four players at an all-pro level: Hufanga, Allen, Surtain, and Bonitto. They have Cooper deserving consideration for the pro bowl and JFM is no slouch. This team has depth at all levels with rookies looking to make their mark with some playing time of their own, Que Robinson and Sai’vion Jones. This defense is pushing comparisons with some of the all-time Bronco D’s. How much fun is it watching this group this season? No, really, how much fun!
MHR – Special teams played much better in coverage last week but kick and punt returns was still lacking. How good is it to have Marvin Mims back this week?
BayAreaUnitedinOrange: Mims can be a difference maker for us in a low scoring game. Field position is our friend this week.
MHR – This week Alex Singleton made it public that he very recently discovered he had testicular cancer. So he played a game and then went in for surgery. First of all, how amazing is it that he still played a game the night before surgery (and made a ton of tackles)? Second, what a great testament to early screening. What were your thoughts when you heard the news?
BayAreaUnitedinOrange: Amazing to play that game on a short week, with all of this on his mind for the prior two weeks. I can’t imagine the strength that it took mentally and physically.
On the early screening, how ironic his early screening was precipitated by a random drug test for his job. Most of us are not randomly tested. Only once in my entire career was I required to even take a drug test to be hired for a new position. Nothing random about this in my mind; higher forces were at work and on Derek’s side.
Predictions
Stats for BO NIX? 20 for 30, 1TD passing, 250 yards; 25 yards rushing
Stats for each Broncos RB? RJ: 75 yards (1 long burst and a lot of short runs); Badie 20 yards, Jaleel: 10 yards
Number of yards receiving/TDs for the receivers? Sutton 80 and the lone TD; Franklin 40; Bryant 30; Mims 30; Engram 25; RBs: 45
Longest FG for Lutz? 52
Number of sacks to Patrick Mahomes? 5
Broncos player with the most tackles? Greenlaw
Who gets the first sack of the game for the Broncos? Bonitto
How many sacks for Bonitto and Cooper on the day? 2 and 1 respectively
How many INTs/FF/FR for the Chiefs D? 1/0/0
How many INTs/FF/FR for the Broncos’ D? 2/1/1
How many absolutely terrible PI calls will go against the Broncos defense (particularly Riley Moss)? I heard a lot of chatter this week about this particular crew. Let’s go with 2
Final Score? 23-16 good guys with a strip sack, scoop and score helping the offense with that second TD, winning margin in a defensive battle
The Favorites
Favorite John Elway win outside of the Super Bowls? The Drive
Favorite Broncos win ever? SB32
Favorite Peyton Manning win? SB50
Team you love to beat the most in the AFC West? Still the Raiders (see answer to first question)
Favorite win over the Chiefs? Today’s
Coach you laugh at the most in the NFL? I don’t really laugh at coaches, more the owners and GM’s hiring bad fits for their team
Coach you most want to throw an egg at? McHoodie, take your pick
Team you hate to lose to the most in the rest of the AFC? Pats
NFC team you could cheer for in the Super Bowl? Lions, I grew up there.
NFC team you want to face more than any other in the Super Bowl? Wow. I haven’t allowed myself to dream too much this season, as in who we matchup against. Maybe a revenge game vs Seahawks.
Favorite game so far this season? Cowboys
Favorite Broncos player on the current roster? That’s a tough one. I need a new team jersey, which # would it be? Hufanga would look good on my back.
Favorite Broncos player of all time not named John Elway? Terrell Davis
Favorite new guy/rookie on the team? Hufanga
Favorite game analyst/commentator? I still like Greg Olsen
Who is on your Broncos’ Mount Rushmore? No cheating, only four — Elway, Davis, Miller, and Manning
How did you become a Broncos fan? Most have heard this story:
Grew up in Detroit watching terr-uble football in the 60s and 70s. Moved to Denver for almost 30 years and became a Broncos fan starting with Elway’s rookie year. Now in the Bay Area for 16 years, and I have kept my sport allegiances. How about my Avs?!?
