After jettisoning Michael Tonkin and Genesis Cabrera and coming to terms with reliever Justin Topa earlier today, the Twins have reportedly tendered contracts to all of their remaining arbitration-eligible
players. That group includes C Ryan Jeffers, RHP Bailey Ober, RHP Joe Ryan, OF/DH Trevor Larnach, 3B Royce Lewis, RHP Cole Sands, and the recently acquired C Alex Jackson.
The only surprise in that group is Larnach. MLB Trade Rumors projects Larnach to earn around $4.7M in arbitration for 2026, which is not that much in the grand scheme of things. However, Larnach is essentially a league average bat who is already limited to DH at 28-years-old. He started in the field in only 53 of his 142 games in 2025 and put up league-average offensive numbers for the season. Unlike in 2024, none of his pitch-level metrics paint him as someone likely to improve either. Larnach could still be traded to another team, but a team still reportedly trying to compete in 2026 can’t afford to pay nearly $5M for a DH who isn’t a particularly good hitter. This could signal that Derek Falvey has a larger budget than expected to work with, but we all know to expect the worst from the Pohlads at this point.
Additionally, the Twins have three top prospects in Walker Jenkins, Emmanuel Rodriguez, and Gabriel Gonzalez who should all debut at some point next season. Put that together with the current outfield crop of Buxton, Wallner, Roden, Outman, and Martin and… well I simply don’t see a reason Trevor Larnach is still a Twin. He could absolutely make a leap over the offseason and prove me wrong, but Larnach’s at the point of his career where he’s likely plateauing. As is becoming increasingly common with Derek Falvey and his baseball ops team, this is bad process that likely precedes bad results.
I reserve my right to retract that last sentence if Falvey turns out to have a bigger budget than expected. Time will tell.
