The Atlanta Falcons had their chance to climb over .500 and build some momentum heading into a tough matchup on the road against the New England Patriots, and they blew it. Now this game comes with added
pressure on Atlanta at a time where they can’t even seem to handle the baseline pressure of preparing for their games properly.
Heading into the year, this seemed like a middle-tier matchup, but it has rapidly become an obvious problem. New England is playing at a high level right now, Drake Maye looks like the best deep-ball thrower in football, and the Patriots defense has limited teams to 20 or fewer points in six of its eight matchups thus far. You do have to bake level of competition in here—the Pats have played the Browns, Raiders, Dolphins, Panthers, Titans, and Saints, and actually managed to lose to the Raiders in Week 1—but it’s obvious this is a team on the rise with the talent to make a real playoff push. The Falcons will have to be incredibly sharp to win, and they just haven’t been the last two weeks and rarely are on the road.
Here’s what you need to know about a scary post-Halloween matchup.
Team rankings
If you were to ignore points scored, you would think these two teams were not terribly far apart. Indeed, the Patriots are not the best rushing team or best team at defending the pass, and you can make the case that some of their success has been due to their relatively soft schedule.
But there’s no point in denying that this is an excellent passing attack, very capable defense, and well-rounded team overall in ways that the Falcons are not. Atlanta’s laboring to get down the field right now, useless in the red zone, and very susceptible to capable opposing rushing attacks; the surface numbers look good but the team is currently in a darker place than all that. The Patriots are, at least right now, definitely a demonstrably better team.
How the Patriots have changed
The last time the Falcons saw them, Bill Belichick was still on the sideline and Mac Jones was under center. Suffice to say things have changed a lot.
The big changes over the course of this offseason were still pretty substantial. Looking to give new franchise quarterback Drake Maye a more stable situation, the team fired Jerod Mayo and hired Mike Vrabel, who brought back flameout head coach yet capable offensive coordinator Josh McDaniels for his third tour of duty in New England.
They signed Stefon Diggs to give them a legitimate#1 receiver, added Harold Landry III, K’Lavon Chiasson, and Milton Williams to boost their defensive front, signed longtime Buccaneer Carlton Davis to a deal at corner, adand inked Morgan Moses and Garrett Bradbury to shore up a lousy offensive line. They then spent heavily in the draft to bring in tackle Will Campbell and guard Jared Wilson for the left side of the line, spending a first and third respectively, and added safety Craig Woodson in the fourth round. That’s quite a few new starters, and thus far the Patriots are getting value out of nearly all of them, part of what’s fueling their quick turnaround.
Annoyingly, this means the Patriots are probably back, though whether they’re merely a playoff contender for a few years or something more remains to be seen.
What to know about Week 9
First of all, if the Falcons come out like they did against Miami, this one is going to over by halftime. Mentally prepare yourself for that possibility.
Assuming players and coaches are sufficiently chastened by getting their asses kicked by Miami and are better prepared for New England, the road to victory is a rocky and narrow one. Making the Patriots relatively one-dimensional and forcing Drake Maye to throw all day increases the chances of turnovers and high-volatility deep throws, but Maye is tossing those about as well as anybody in the NFL right now. That would require a level of sharpness and consistency from the secondary I’m not entirely comfortable projecting, to say nothing of the pass rush.
But it’s better than the alternative, which is New England running all over Atlanta and picking their spots for Maye, something the Falcons couldn’t handle with a lesser offense and quarterback in Tua Tagovailoa and the Dolphins. TreVeyon Henderson is starting to catch fire a little bit and Maye is a dangerous runner in his own right, but the team prefers Rhamondre Stevenson as their volume option and he’s banged up this week. The hope is that Atlanta can buck recent trends and at least slow down this rushing attack enough to put more on Maye’s arm; as I said, it’s hardly ideal but more likely to lead to drive-killing sacks and turnovers. Stevenson does, I should note, fumble quite often, which could be a factor Sunday if he suits up.
It is worth noting that Maye, like many young quarterbacks, is a very different player under pressure. Per Pro Football Focus, Maye’s completion percentage when pressured drops nearly 20 points, his yards per attempt drops by nearly a full yard, and he has two touchdowns against one interception. That’s a notable drop-off, given that his numbers this year overall are an eye-popping 75% of passes completed, 9 yards per attempt, and 15 touchdowns against three interceptions. Ratcheting up the pressure works, in other words, and leads to poor outcomes, as Maye has five bad throws, three turnover-worthy plays, and has absorbed 28 sacks on 104 dropbacks when pressured, per PFF. That last number is the second-highest total in the league behind Cam Ward, and paints a compelling picture of the way you can pay Maye for hanging in there and trying to make plays.
The offensive side of the ball is an entirely different challenge. The Falcons haven’t been able to get the ground game going the past two weeks despite facing relatively porous run defenses, but New England’s has been excellent. That makes it an entirely different ball of wax for Atlanta, which needs better blocking up front to give Bijan Robinson and Zac Robinson much of a chance of getting things going. The Patriots are more vulnerable in the secondary, where Carlton Davis is having an up-and-down year and New England doesn’t have ready-made answers for Bijan Robinson and Kyle Pitts, but this passing attack has struggled to take advantage of that. Getting Drake London and Michael Penix Jr. will at least give the Falcons a fighting chance, but they’re going to need to have the kind of crisp, consistent passing attack that helped them succeed against Buffalo regardless.
That’s going to be particularly critical in the red zone. The Falcons have been poor there all season long, but the Patriots are tied for the highest red zone touchdown scoring percentage allowed in the league, just above 70%. When things bunch up, the back half of this New England defense can be exploited, and it’s going to be on a team loaded with playmakers to act like it, even if their track record suggests they’ll struggle to.
Oh, and there’s one more weakness that’s easy to overlook: The Patriots have the worst yards per punt return average in the NFL. Atlanta’s lack of quality field position has been contributing to their offensive malaise, so getting Jamal Agnew going in this one could be a difference maker.
If I don’t sound particularly optimistic about all of this, it’s because I’m not. We know the Falcons are capable of taking it to a very good team because they’ve already steamrolled the Bills, but the Patriots are hotter than Buffalo was a few weeks back and Atlanta’s in a rougher spot with injuries and their recent dip in performance. We’re going to need to see many things click into place at the same time for the Falcons to win on the road in cold weather against a quality team; I’ll hope for it and can see the ways Atlanta can get there, but I cannot in good conscience expect it.
