Earlier this April, I did something you shouldn’t do. I looked at a small sample and said essentially these prospects might make a top 20 team list in the future. I didn’t specify when. And they had to definitively not be considered a top 20 prospect by just about anyone. And let me tell you, it was a much smaller sample of games than I remember.
So what better time than now to see how those players did. Did they continue their success? Make me look a little smart? Well yes, only if you ignore the players who
did not make me look smart. So needless to say, it was hit-or-miss. In fact, I would argue I missed on two players, hit on two of them and the third was always meant as a future pick. So we’ll call that a to be determined. We’ll start on the misses.
Josh Kross
Low A: 42 G, 183 PAs, .244/.311/.488, 5.5 BB%, 26.2 K%, .244 ISO, .291 BABIP, 120 wRC+
High A: 58 G, 243 PAs, .211/.288/.385, 9.1 BB%, 26.7 K%, .174 ISO, .255 BABIP, 88 wRC+
Kross is a confusing prospect. Though he had a 120 wRC+ in Low A, those are some seriously concerning K/BB numbers… but his High A debut and Low A debut last year do not indicate that same level of concern. He walked 16% of the time last year in Low A. So he has the profile of a good hitter – except the ball doesn’t find a hole often enough. And unfortunately BABIP is considered more of a skill in the minors. So him having just a .255 BABIP is not good. Because if you give him a .300 BABIP, he’s an above average hitter.
But that’s not what prevents him from being a top 20 prospect. He’s not really expected to stay at catcher. He played more 1B than catcher this past season. And while you can envision his offense maybe playing at catcher, if he was competent defensively, his offense needs a higher standard as a 1B. Given that he played this past season at 22-years-old, he needed to do a lot more given his defensive concerns on offense. Despite a hot start.
Jeremy Rivas
AA: 116 G, 487 PAs, .204/.298/.319, 9.9 BB%, 27.7 K%, .115 ISO, .272 BABIP, 73 wRC+
To give you an idea of the sample size I had, Rivas also had a 200 wRC+ at the time I wrote it. His numbers went down a bit since then. Last season, Rivas was an empty power slap hitter with a .045 ISO at the power-happy Springfield. He had so little power than he had a .339 OBP and a 90 wRC+. This guy is never making the majors, because he can’t hit at all.
Clearly Rivas came into the season intending to hit for more power. His ISO more than doubled and I’d even go as far as to say that a .115 ISO in Springfield is just enough for a player whose primary value will be defense. But the rest of his game struggled in response. He actually walked about as often last year as this. But he struck out a lot more and his BABIP took a big hit. He’s another player whose line looks a lot better if his BABIP wasn’t so below average. Rivas is still just 22 and will be 23, so I do sincerely hope he comes back and I hope he can keep the power and cut down on the Ks with more reps. But he was getting an age boost before with my potential top 20 add and he’s losing that, so even if he does, I doubt he’ll be a top 20 prospect.
Braden Davis
Low A: 17 G, 33.9 K%, 17.1 BB%, 53.7 GB%, .273 BABIP, 3.18 ERA/3.66 FIP/3.45 xFIP
High A: 8 GS, 33.6 K%, 15.4 BB%, 28.2 GB%, .205 BABIP, 2.21 ERA/2.81 FIP/3.88 xFIP
It’s not very often that a pitcher will be promoted to a new level in the same season and see his K/BB numbers improve. His strikeouts basically stayed the same, but he walked less. He still walked a lot of hitters though. I do find the vast decline in GB% peculiar. It’s only eight starts, but he was a very much a groundball pitcher in Low A. And extreme flyball in High A.
I consider Davis one of my hits, although as of this writing, I am not positive he is actually a top 20 prospect. He will be in the voting this upcoming season for sure. Without considering his competitors, I think he has a fairly strong case. But I’m more calling it a hit because his numbers held up. Kross and Rivas’ numbers did not.
Ixan Henderson
AA: 25 GS, 25.2 K%, 9.6 BB%, 37.1 GB%, .278 BABIP, 2.59 ERA/3.16 FIP/4.00 xFIP,
Let the record show I wrote my article when Henderson had made one start. I am not kidding. He made the list for two reasons: his one start was phenomenal – he struck out 8 in 5 scoreless innings. Also, pay attention to the actions of the Cardinals. He made six total starts in High A. He wasn’t especially good in those starts. What did that tell me? Cardinals think this guy is legit.
What was the first sign we should be paying attention to Lars Nootbaar? He didn’t stay at any level for 40 games until he reached the majors. If someone seems to be getting promoted aggressively, that gets my interest. Henderson has got to be a top 20 prospect, so I definitely nailed this one.
Leonel Sequera
Low A: 24 GS, 108 IP, 20.9 K%, 8.7 BB%, 50.8 GB%, .330 BABIP, 4.33 ERA/3.45 FIP/3.94 xFIP
Yeah he made this list because he was 19-years-old, pitching in Low A. Not only that, he pitched in Low A at 18-years-old the year before. And held his own. From that small sample of games in 2024, Sequera improved his strikeouts, and lowered his walks. He also got less groundballs, so he wasn’t necessarily a better pitcher. But since he had a 16.2% of hitters last year, he did need to improve on that and he did.
Sequera is my to be determined. It’s an age-related pick. He has a few years to deliver on this pick. I am curious if he’ll start next year in High A. He wasn’t really dominant and in fact, something about his stats make me think he’d struggle at High A right now. He’ll probably have a relatively quick promotion if he’s pitching well though.
