- Location: Colorado Springs, CO (Falcon Stadium)
- Date/Time: Saturday, October 18th at 1:30 p.m. MT
- Television: CBS Sports Network
- Radio: KVOR AM 740, Colorado Springs
- Head-to-Head: Air Force leads the all-time series 31-28-3. Wyoming defeated Air Force last year in Laramie, by a score of 31-19.
It doesn’t get the attention that the Commander-in-Chief’s series versus Army and Navy do, but the Air Force rivalry with Wyoming is a really good one. Often times, these two create what ends up being a very physical and dare I say— ugly, game. The mountain residents have been playing one another since 1957, when in their first match-up, they tied 7-7. That is a pretty good example of this rivalry ever since. They have traded wins annually the past four seasons, which is a microcosm of the totality
of this series.
The 2025 variety of this series is going to be a patron example of strength on weakness for each team. The Pokes offense is ranked near the bottom of the Mountain West in scoring, mustering just under 20 points per game. Conversely, there may not be a more generous defense in all of the land right now, than the one they are facing on Saturday. The Falcons are giving up nearly 40 points per game, and rank outside of the top 130 nationally in five major defensive categories. We are talking bottom 5% across the board.
If you are a Wyoming fan, you may be optimistic headed into this weeks game, and for good reason. Not only does Air Force profile as the perfect team to build an offenses’ confidence, but the Pokes are also coming off of their best performance of the year in a comeback win against San Jose State. Meanwhile, Air Force has been the same verse, different chapter. Spectacular offensive output, paired with equal parts bad defense, resulting in a late game, heart-wrenching loss.
It’s hard to believe that midway through the season, Air Force is 0-4 in Conference play, looking up at Wyoming, and everyone else from the bottom of the standings. Aside from Bowl aspirations, which are on life support right now, the Falcons have seen their on-the-field goals for the year go down the drain. The Cowboys on the other hand still have everything right in front of them. By beating Air Force, Wyoming could really turn a corner with a second Mountain West win in as many weeks.
Keys to an Air Force Victory
Win the Battle of the Underclassmen
Both of these teams have sophomores and even a few freshman playing key roles on their teams. The way those players perform will bare significant consequence. The struggles for Air Force’s secondary are well documented. With all freshman and sophomores on the backend of their defense, it will be interesting to see if they can level up their play against Quarterback Kaden Anderson (So), Running Back Tote Harris (Fr) and Slot Receiver Chris Durr Jr (So).
While their senior ball carrier, Sam Harris is a very physical runner that needs accounted for, it’s the freshman Harris that has come on the scene and should have the Falcons attention. He’s had an impact in the run game and pass game, averaging nine yards every time he touches the ball. While Kaden Anderson’s numbers on the year look modest, with eight touchdowns against five interceptions; his performance last week against San Jose State bumped those numbers up as he threw for over 300 yards and three tudds. Anderson has thrown the ball twice as much the past two week as he had all season prior, so while the yards and attempts are up, so were the interceptions. The Pokes QB has thrown to the wrong jersey three times in the last two weeks.
A turnover of any kind would be huge for this beleaguered Air Force defense. But an interception from one of these young DB’s would mean even more. Maybe their freshman saftey Max Mustell will get his hands on another ball, or his counterpart Ronald Jones Jr (So). The Falcons will be relying on their own Sophomore trigger man, Liam Szarka to generate scoring drives against a very stingy Cowboy defense. But his body of work suggest success is far more likely than that of his teammates on defense. Maybe this is the week we see the defense stiffen. And by stiffen, even the most modest of improvements could prove drastic in relation to their chances at winning this game. The fact Wyoming’s stud tight end John Michael Gyllenborg hasn’t been healthy in weeks, wouldn’t hurt those odds should he not be able to go on Saturday either.
Between the Uprights
Luke Freer has quietly continued to be one of the best punters in the country. Unfortunately, the field goal kicking from Air Force has been so inconsistent, it’s overshadowed his great performance when talking about special teams. Placekicker Jacob Medina is just a sophomore, and may have a bright future ahead of him. But he wasn’t dealt a great hand in succeeding the schools all-time leading scorer in Matthew Dapore.
The reality is this team needs points every chance they get. And Medina has missed kicks in each of the past two weeks that would have been the difference in what Air Force fell short of on the scoreboard. When the defense is surrendering 600 yards per game, it’s hard to put the loss on a kicker. But the kicks that have been missed against UNLV and Navy were makable and necessary.
While Medina hasn’t missed any extra points, of which there were many opportunities to thanks to the offense, he is just 1-4 on field goal attempts of 30 yards or more. At elevation no less, this is something that has to get corrected. Admittedly, I was a little surprised to see him take the lead kicking duties over Reagan Tubbs, who played in place of Dapore for a spell in 2023. If Medina continues to struggle, maybe it’s time to give Tubbs an opportunity?
The Pokes are relying on a sophomore kicker of their own in Erik Sandvik. The first year kicker has missed just one kick on the year, making 5 out of 6 tries. His season long is just 40 yards also, so distance has yet to be tested. This is just another in that extended theme of sophomore players who may impact Saturday’s game.
Don’t do what Losing Teams Do
The Air Force defense has gotten a lot of scrutiny, and justly so. You have to believe the coaches who are at practice with these guys daily, know what they have in their personnel. With so many underclassmen in, you also have to think Defensive Coordinator Brian Knorr along with Head Coach Troy Calhoun expected some early struggles to give way to progression. Well, that progression hasn’t come. Questionable pursuit angles, poor tackling, blown coverages and mental lapses are going to happen under these circumstances. But there have been multiple times per game where three or more of those malfunctions have reared on a single play.
For as spectacular as the offense has been, they too have had a few gaffs. The second half of the UNLV game is the perfect example of what struggling teams do to lose. The Falcons grabbed momentum to end the first half, taking a 21-13 lead into halftime, and received the ball to start the second half. And then proceeded to fumble the ball away, and commit critically bad drive killing penalties that resulted in 16 points lightning-quick points for the Rebs on their first two possessions of the half.
From that point on, the Falcons defense couldn’t even pose the slightest of resistance to UNLV giving up yards and points in bunches. And yet again, the Air Force offense kept them alive with an unrelenting attack, giving them the lead with barely more than a minute left in the game. That circumstance, when you have scored 48 points should be enough to win games. Such was not the case last week. Nothing has come easy, nor will it until this team distances themselves from some of these critical mistakes.
PREDICTION
At some point, you have to believe an offense that scores almost 40 points per game is going to be enough to start getting wins. Right now, that is the case for Air Force, except they have yet to win a game against FBS competition. Nobody is going to feel sorry for the Falcons or their much maligned defense. Certainly not their rivals from Laramie.
But this game feels like a tipping point to me. Air Force has come so close, only to have their hearts broken week after week. They are either going to get over that hump and win this game, or the season may completely spiral out of control from this point on. With just the slightest improvement on defense, this team would still be alive in the Mountain West race, with the way the offense had performed. It’s too late for that now. But it’s not too late to try and ressurect your season with back-to-back rivalry games on the calendar.
This has to be the week that defense takes a step forward or it simply isn’t happening when you look at the rest of the schedule. The Air Force offense is what it is— awesome. This week, the Falcon are playing a team that should allow the defense to play more downhill and do a little less between the ears. Brian Knorr’s crew is done being ragged on. Give me the Falcons to finally get in the win column against the Pokes.
Air Force 31- Wyoming 28
