As the final seconds ticked off the clock in Detroit, things looked bleak for the Cowboys. The loss to the Lions dropped them to 6-6-1, snapping a three-game win streak and derailing what had suddenly become a burgeoning playoff bid.
A few days – and another Eagles self destruction – later, things have been upgraded from bleak to just dire. They currently have an 11% chance to make the playoffs, according to the playoff simulator at The Athletic. Even a single loss the rest of the way drops them under
3%, and likely eliminates them not long after.
To call it a longshot would be an understatement, but Brian Schottenheimer is fine with that.
The first-year head coach is plenty used to being a longshot. A coach’s son, Schottenheimer was always supposed to be the “next big thing.” You’d think that in a league full of good ol’ boys who care more about who you know than what you can do, Schottenheimer would’ve been a head coach much sooner. After all, his father is one of just eight head coaches in history with 200+ career wins. But it took time for Schottenheimer, who was often overlooked for various reasons.
When Rex Ryan took over as the head coach of the Jets, and decided to retain Schottenheimer as his offensive coordinator, expectations were low in New York. After Week 11, the Jets were written off at 4-6 after losing three straight. But Ryan, Schottenheimer, and the rest of the team kept the faith in what they were building.
They then ripped off three straight, finally getting above .500, before a loss to the Falcons set them back. But they stayed the course, winning their final two games – including blowing out Peyton Manning’s Colts and shutting out a 10-win Bengals team – and making the playoffs as the final Wild Card team.
Despite holding a 9-7 record and sneaking into the postseason, the Jets were the most dangerous team in the league. They proved it, too, beating the Bengals again before upsetting the Chargers in San Diego. That brought them all the way to the AFC Championship Game almost exactly two months after being written off at 4-6. And while the Colts would beat them to go onto the Super Bowl, it didn’t diminish the magical run the Jets had pulled off.
Schottenheimer finds himself in a very similar situation now.
Just like the 2009 Jets, the 2025 Cowboys ripped off three straight wins before suffering a disappointing loss. Now, they need to run the table just to have a hope at the playoffs. Their remaining schedule isn’t as tough as that Jets team was, but the Vikings and Chargers are hardly pushovers. And while the Giants and Commanders are just thinking about the draft already, divisional road games are still never easy.
The Cowboys need some help, yes, but they can only focus on what they control. Winning out the rest of the way puts them at 10-6-1 and, according to the playoff simulator, gives them a 54% chance to make the playoffs regardless of the outcome of any other games. Throw in just one more loss for the Eagles, in any game, and those odds surge to over 70%.
Over the last decade, only two teams have failed to make the playoffs after winning 10 games. The Seahawks did it last year, while the Dolphins did it in 2020. The vast majority of the time, 10 wins is as good as clinching the playoffs; on the rare occasion it isn’t good enough, it’s hard to feel bad about that year given its rarity.
What this all boils down to is the fact that the Cowboys have a shot, long as it may be. At the very least, they’ll be able to hold their heads high knowing they did everything in their power to get into the postseason. And, in the optimistic scenario, Schottenheimer recaptures some of that 2009 mojo and takes the Cowboys all the way to the NFC Championship Game.
It’s hard to envision such a scenario right now, but just ask Jets fans how they felt at this point. Schottenheimer knows, too. And he knows that this team is far from being out of it in early December. All they have to do is keep fighting.
