A couple games of double-digit scoring and stress-free victories are a splendid sorbet for the woeful road trip Seattle just took. Now they’ve got a home set against an uncommon foe. In fact, entering this series, the Mariners have played fewer games against the St. Louis Cardinals than any other active organization (just 24). While that will flip to the Pirates after this three game set, it’s an opportunity to ground the Redbirds that’s rarely come up even in the interleague era.
struggled to stand out in most aspects of the game this season, putting them in seller’s position this summer. They dealt away longtime closer Ryan Helsley, along with fellow relief stalwarts Steven Matz and Phil Maton, leaving them a diminished group interested in playing their young core developmentally, particularly with the Brewers and Cubs maintaining a comfortable lead in the NL Central. There is also sizable deterioration in the play of The Lou’s rotation, pushing a still-solid bullpen to its limits and demanding much of a top notch defense.
Player
Position
Bats
PA
K%
BB%
ISO
wRC+
Lars Nootbaar
LF
L
512
20.3%
10.7%
.140
101
Iván Herrera
DH
R
370
19.5%
9.2%
.168
130
Willson Contreras
1B
R
541
25.7%
7.8%
.195
121
Nolan Gorman
3B
L
350
31.4%
12.6%
.182
102
Masyn Winn
SS
R
534
18.7%
6.4%
.111
92
Thomas Saggese
2B
R
220
28.2%
5.5%
.074
71
Jimmy Crooks (AAA)
C
L
430
26.5%
8.4%
.167
104
Jordan Walker
RF
R
343
31.8%
6.4%
.091
64
Victor Scott II
CF
L
414
24.2%
9.2%
.086
82
The Cardinals seemingly unending stream of above average position player prospects has dried up over the last few years. They’ve had some highly regarded prospects make their debuts, but the quality of those youngsters has waned a bit. Look no further than the struggles of Jordan Walker as evidence. He was ranked among the best prospects in all of baseball ahead of his debut in 2023, but he’s managed just a 90 wRC+ in parts of three seasons in the big leagues. It’s the same story with Masyn Winn (91 wRC+ since his debut) and Victor Scott II (70 wRC+). The one big development success has been Iván Herrera (124 wRC+), though he’s been moved off his position at catcher because of some defensive issues, so his overall value to the team is diminished a bit.
Across nine second half starts, Miles Mikolas’s fastball velocity has ticked up to 94 mph on average, a jump of nearly two miles per hour over his norm. With such a significant velocity increase, you’d expect some better results, right? His ERA over these nine starts has been 4.78, which is technically down from the 4.94 ERA he posted during the first half of the season, but not the kind of improvement you’d expect to see. The added oomph on the heater is nice to see, but Mikolas just doesn’t have the complimentary pitches to really take advantage of an improved fastball. To make matters worse, his elite command has slipped a little this year, making his margin for error even smaller.
Pitcher
IP
K%
BB%
HR/FB%
GB%
ERA
FIP
Matthew Liberatore
136.2
18.6%
6.0%
9.6%
38.8%
4.15
3.92
George Kirby
104.2
23.6%
5.9%
12.0%
43.4%
4.47
3.56
Pitch
Frequency
Velocity
Stuff+
Whiff+
BIP+
xwOBA
Four-seam
29.1%
93.9
83
55
103
0.371
Sinker
10.9%
94.0
91
41
80
0.366
Cutter
10.9%
90.1
92
65
109
0.383
Changeup
12.3%
88.5
85
58
97
0.357
Curveball
15.1%
77.4
122
99
122
0.229
Slider
21.8%
86.4
107
97
88
0.302
After a long development path through the Cardinals farm system, Matthew Liberatore finally looked like he had put everything together early this year. Through his first 16 starts of the season, his ERA was a pretty good 3.70 and his FIP was an excellent 3.10. Due to some fatigue, he only made three starts in July, and he’s really struggled since the All-Star break. The biggest change for him this year has been an improved changeup that he can use to keep right-handed batters at bay. His two breaking balls are solid pitches that can earn swings and misses, but his fastball is merely average, which puts a cap on his ceiling.
Pitcher
IP
K%
BB%
HR/FB%
GB%
ERA
FIP
Michael McGreevy
73
14.0%
3.9%
9.9%
44.9%
4.68
4.00
Logan Gilbert
109.2
33.9%
6.1%
15.4%
41.4%
3.61
3.13
Pitch
Frequency
Velocity
Stuff+
Whiff+
BIP+
xwOBA
Four-seam
25.2%
93.0
83
109
65
0.416
Sinker
23.0%
91.8
98
60
115
0.285
Cutter
10.0%
88.7
82
52
77
0.377
Changeup
8.7%
88.0
83
77
121
0.356
Curveball
11.2%
79.5
98
43
80
0.458
Sweeper
20.9%
83.6
96
79
88
0.322
Michael McGreevy uses pinpoint command and a deep repertoire to help his below average stuff play up. His fastball can get swings and misses when it’s located at the top of the zone, but it gets hit really hard if he can’t get it to the top rail. His sweeper is his other bat missing weapon, but that pitch’s whiff rate is well below average for the pitch type. Still, he’s been a durable and consistent starter in the minors thanks to his miniscule walk rate and high groundball rate, and those two skills should translate well to the big leagues, even if his strikeout rate isn’t very impressive. In many ways, McGreevy’s skill set is a lot like another former St. Louis prospect from a while ago: Marco Gonzales.
The Big Picture:
Team
W-L
W%
Games Behind
Recent Form
Astros
78-66
0.542
—
W-L-L-W-L
Mariners
75-68
0.524
2.5
L-L-L-W-W
Rangers
74-70
0.514
4.0
L-L-W-L-W
Angels
67-76
0.469
10.5
W-L-L-L-W
Athletics
66-78
0.458
12.0
L-L-W-W-L
Team
W-L
W%
Games Behind
Recent Form
Yankees
80-63
0.559
+5.0
L-W-L-W-W
Red Sox
79-65
0.549
+3.5
W-L-L-L-W
Mariners
75-68
0.524
—
L-L-L-W-W
Rangers
74-70
0.514
1.5
L-L-W-L-W
Royals
73-70
0.510
2.0
L-W-W-W-L
Guardians
72-70
0.507
2.5
W-L-W-W-W
That looks a little better, doesn’t it? The product of Seattle’s series win in Atlanta and a Texas-Houston slugfest has the M’s back in striking distance of the AL West crown. As ever, remember that Seattle has or is all but certain to have the tiebreaker on every team except Houston and Kansas City, both of which will be up for grabs next week.
This week, in the theme of things sorting themselves out, KC travels to Cleveland, while Texas hosts the best team in baseball, the Milwaukee Brewers. Boston is out west for a former Missouri ballclub, as the Red Sox salvaged a win to avoid a sweep in the desert and now take on the free-swinging Athletics. Off Monday, both Houston and New York prepare for the best teams in the AL to come to town, as the Tigers take to the Bronx, while the Astros are north of the border for a massive showdown with the Blue Jays. Opportunity, she knocks.
