Even though it was tightly contested for much of the night, the New England Patriots’ wild card playoff contest against the Los Angeles Chargers was won with relative ease. The offense kept making enough plays to overcome its miscues, while their defense was lights-out and never allowed L.A. a chance to get back into the game.
The result was a 16-3 victory and a chance to host another postseason game in the divisional round. There, a seemingly more daunting test awaits: the Houston Texans, who finished
the regular season with a 12-5 record and — powered by an outstanding defense — left the Pittsburgh Steelers no chance in a 30-6 trouncing on Monday night.
How exactly do the two teams match up, though? Let’s go through some critical areas to find out who has the edge.
Passing game
Patriots pass offense vs. Texans pass defense: Sunday will mark the 31st start of Drake Maye’s career, and it will be the toughest test he has faced so far. Houston’s defense is excellent across the board, and especially when it comes to putting pressure on opposing quarterbacks: spearheaded by All-Pros Will Anderson Jr. and Danielle Hunter, the Texans’ pass rush has been devastating and will prove a challenge to a Patriots O-line that did not look its best against the Chargers. And yet, we still give Maye and company a slight edge in this one. Why? He has been excellent against zone coverage this year, the Texans have been middle of the pack in preventing big plays and defending mobile QBs, and Houston is not doing anything crazy scheme-wise — they primarily win on superior talent — which could allow Josh McDaniels to cook something up. If they can limit their self-inflicted mistakes, we can therefore see the Patriots finding success passing the ball. | Edge: Patriots
Patriots pass defense vs. Texans pass offense: Question marks are hanging over two of the best players on either side of this matchup: Patriots cornerback Christian Gonzalez and Texans wide receiver Nico Collins are both in concussion protocol. Based on practice participation, Gonzalez appears to be further along and not an unrealistic candidate to be cleared by Sunday. Obviously, that would be good news for a New England pass defense that shined last Sunday. But even if he is not cleared in time and assuming Collins will be a no-go as well, the team should be able to find success against the Texans’ passing game. As long as Christian Kirk and Jayden Higgins in particular are held in check, the 17th-best passing offense in the NFL in EPA per play (0.083) could have a hard time against a Patriots D trending up. | Edge: Patriots
Running game
Patriots rushing offense vs. Texans run defense: New England’s ground game has made tremendous strides in recent weeks, but, much like its passing game, will go up against one of the top units in football. The Texans are ranked in the top-10 in multiple statistical categories versus the run, including a third-place ranking in EPA per carry (-0.124). The Patriots do have the dual-threat element added by Drake Maye as well as Rhamondre Stevenson playing the best football of his career, but at the end of the day the run game often comes down to winning individual matchups along the line of scrimmage. Given who they will be up against not just up. front but lurking at the second level as well, doing so on a consistent down-to-down basis will be a tall order. | Edge: Texans
Patriots run defense vs. Texans rushing offense: Houston dominated on the ground against Pittsburgh, with Woody Marks and Nick Chubb combining to gain 160 yards on 29 carries for an average of 5.5 yards per run. The question is whether that performance was an outlier or concrete proof of the Texans run game having turned the corner after some uneven outings during the regular season. But also, if it has, will be enough versus New England? Fact is, after all, that the Patriots’ ability to stop the run has increased significantly with Milton Williams and Robert Spillane back in the lineup. Add the fact that Khyiris Tonga and Harold Landry are both on the up as well, and the resurgent Texans rushing attack might be in for a challenge. | Edge: Patriots
Special teams
The Patriots’ special teams group had one of its best performances of the season against the Chargers, but keeping the momentum going in order to find similar success versus Houston will not be easy. The Texans, after all, have performed at a solid level throughout the year in the game’s third phase, and are New England’s statistical equal in most categories. The only uneven matchups are punt return (advantage NE), tackling (advantage NE), place kicking (advantage HOU) and coverage (advantage HOU). With no unit obviously superior this season, we are going off most recent performance and game location. Both of those favor the home team. | Edge: Patriots
Coaching
The Patriots and Texans are not in the divisional round by accident but because they have performed at a high level all year, including on the coaching side of things. On Sunday, this very much could be a deciding factor especially for New England: Can Josh McDaniels scheme his way around what is a somewhat basic but highly-performing Texans defense? And can Zak Kuhr keep his foot on the gas against another offense that has looked good this season but is not among the truly elite units in the NFL? The Patriots’ chances of victory might hinge on both of those happening, but given a) McDaniels’ track record and b) Kuhr’s latest game, we are somewhat optimistic on their behalf. | Edge: Patriots
Verdict
If you kept score, you can see that we gave the Patriots an edge in five of the six categories. However, don’t be lured into a false sense of security here: this is a high-class Texans team capable of outperforming its opposition in all parts of the game. Just take special teams, which is basically a default edge for New England based on the fact that the game is taking place in their home arena. Meanwhile, the Texans’ talent on defense might become too much to overcome even for a top quarterback in the league or the most sophisticated of schemes.
At the end of the day, the game should be a tight one. And while we certainly see a path to victory for the Patriots — eliminate mistakes on offense, shore up against the run on defense — getting there against a team as good as Houston’s, especially on one side of the ball, is easier said than done.
