The L.A. Rams should have no trouble beating their division rival San Francisco 49ers in their Week 1 game in Melbourne on Thursday night and the reason is simple: The Rams were the better team last season and they’re even better this season.
When analyzing the first game of the year against a division rival, I look back at what happened in their games the previous season. In the first Rams-Niners games last season, a Week 5 matchup, the 49ers won 26-23 in overtime. If you only look at the score,
it seems like a balanced match. It was anything but.
The Rams missed five scoring opportunities due to self-inflicted errors:
- Two fumbles lost in the red zone (One at the two yard line)
- a blocked PAT
- a missed FG
- 4th down stop at the Niners’ 11 yards line in OT
Yes, the team from San Fran was missing a lot of starters and played admirably, but the game should have been won by the Rams.
In the Week 10 rematch, the Rams were just getting their feet wet with their ‘13’ personnel offensive scheme, and the Niners had no answer for it. L.A. pulled out to a 21-0 lead early in the second quarter, and though the 49ers made it close by the start of the fourth (largely thanks to Mac Jones being almost flawless on short crossing routes) it was soon back to 42-20 and the Rams won 42-26.
On Thursday, I would expect similar problems for the 49ers when it comes to stopping L.A.’s offense, but now Sean McVay has better answers for Kyle Shanahan on defense. It could be another blowout.
WHAT’S NEW THIS SEASON?
Les Snead addressed the Rams’ greatest weakness in the offseason by acquiring cornerbacks Trent McDuffie and Jaylen Watson from the Chiefs. He then pulled the trigger on the biggest trade of the offseason and brought the Defensive Player of the Year Myles Garrett into the fold.
I think those two moves will allow Chris Shula to bring a safety or DB into shallow coverage on those crossing patterns I mentioned, something he was reluctant to do given the pedestrian quality of the Rams’ DBs last year. Also, Garrett’s presence on the line will force Brock Purdy to get rid of the ball much more quickly, especially given San Francisco’s lack of a quality guard on the left side.
While the Rams made some huge changes in the offseason, the Niners only had a few notable moves, such as 33-year-old receiver Mike Evans, rookie receiver De’Zhaun Stribling, and defensive tackle Osa Odighizuwa. When Evans is healthy, he’s good, but he’s been battling injuries for years now and even missed valuable time in training camp when he should have been gelling with Purdy. Odighizuwa was brought in to upgrade the defensive line, but then the 49ers lost defensive tackle Alfred Collins for the season a few days ago.
The Niners are pinning their hopes this week on the return of many of their ‘ancient’ warriors after injury, but even then, these players may not play or may have a reduced workload. Players like Nick Bosa and George Kittle certainly move the needle when healthy, but how healthy are they this week?
Does Shanahan still have McVay’s number?
In any other game this year, the Shanahan factor would come into play, but not this week. The Rams will have a completely remade defense and some serious offensive twists to debut but there is zero 2026 L.A. tape for Shanahan to analyze. He’s completely in the dark as to what to expect.
The Rams addressed their areas of weakness, but San Francisco, who the Rams already seemed better than, didn’t. They mostly just got older. In fact, they were the oldest roster in the NFL at final cuts, but 1.5 years.
It’s football, so anything could happen in Australia. But this one feels like too big of an advantage for the Rams for them not to get the first-game win that they didn’t get against the 49ers last season.
