Friday’s game in Lincoln will mark the 56th gridiron meeting between Iowa and Nebraska. The all-time series favors Nebraska 30-22-3, but that belies the fact that Iowa has owned the Huskers since they
joined the B18 in 2011. Since that time, Iowa owns a commanding 10-4 edge in the series — including six consecutive victories in Lincoln stretching back to 2013, Nebraska’s longest home losing streak to any opponent since 1960. Let that sink in.
The last two meetings have been particularly agonizing for Big Red: identical 13-10 Iowa victories on last-second field goals. One from Marshall Meeder in 2023, and one from Drew Stevens last season — both on the final play of the game. Nebraska coach Matt Rhule has now watched Iowa kick game-winning field goals to beat his team two years in a row, and the mental scars have to be deepening. This is a rivalry defined by Iowa’s methodical, suffocating style grinding down Nebraska’s hopes, one painful possession at a time.
This year’s Black Friday showdown in Lincoln will determine which team finishes 8-4 and likely earns a berth in the Outback (ReliaQuest) Bowl in Tampa. For Iowa, it’s a chance to cap off the season with a seventh straight win in Lincoln and maybe, just maybe, edge their way back into the Top 25. For Nebraska, it’s an opportunity for Matt Rhule to finally break through against Kirk Ferentz.
Let’s see what the numbers have to say.
Offense
Iowa - 309.4 ypg (134.8 passing, 174.5 rushing), 27.9 ppg Nebraska - 379.5 ypg (242.6 passing, 136.8 rushing), 30.5 ppg
On paper, Nebraska’s offense looks significantly better. The Huskers are averaging more than 70 yards per game and 10 more points than Iowa. Dylan Raiola threw for more than 2,000 yards before suffering a season-ending injury a few weeks back, so it will fall to Freshman TJ Lateef (making just his third start) to lead the attack. Lateef is no slouch, in his 2 starts he’s completed 65% of his passes for 392 yards, 3 TDs (all against UCLA) and no INTs. That being said, Penn State kept him pretty well contained up last week, and I’m sure Phil has spent a lot of time with that footage.
Iowa’s rushing attack, led by Kamari Moulton’s 522 yards, isn’t overwhelming anyone statistically, but Nebraska’s run defense has completely collapsed this season, ranking 114th nationally in yards allowed and giving up rushing touchdowns at the highest rate in the nation. This is a dramatic reversal from the past two seasons under defensive coordinator Tony White, when the Blackshirts were dominant against the run. Minnesota, which ranks 124th in rushing yards per game, managed 186 yards against Nebraska. Gronowski’s 13 rushing touchdowns are tied for third among Big Ten quarterbacks over the last 30 years. Something is going to have to give here.
Nebraska’s offense runs through running back Emmett Johnson, who leads the nation by accounting for 37.9% of his team’s total yards. He’s rushed for 1,131 yards and has seven 100-yard games, including four straight heading into this matchup. Johnson has 44 receptions — the most by any running back in the FBS — and his 1,200+ rushing yards combined with 300+ receiving yards make him the only player in college football to hit both marks this season. He’s a legitimate threat every time he touches the football.
ADVANTAGE: Nebraska. The Huskers’ offense is more explosive and more balanced, and Johnson will be the best offensive player on the field Friday.
Defense
Iowa - 267.9 ypg (166.3 passing, 101.6 rushing), 15.1 ppg allowed Nebraska - 306.3 ypg (138.8 passing, 167.5 rushing), 21.5 ppg allowed
This is where Iowa wins games. The Hawkeye defense ranks 8th nationally in both total defense and scoring defense, and they’ve been remarkably stingy against big plays — allowing just five runs of 20+ yards and eight pass plays of 30+ yards all season. They’ve surrendered only three scoring drives of 80 yards or more through 11 games. Phil Parker’s defense has been characteristically excellent against the pass, ranking 12th nationally in passing yards allowed. But what makes Iowa dangerous is their ability to generate turnovers at critical moments. Deshaun Lee and Zach Lutmer each have two interceptions, and the defense forced nine consecutive fourth-quarter stops against Michigan State and Oregon in their most recent games.
Nebraska’s defensive situation is paradoxical. Tony White’s unit boasts the third-best passing defense in the nation, trailing only Ohio State and Oregon. They rank fourth in passing touchdowns allowed. But the run defense is a mess, ranking 114th in yards allowed and they have the highest touchdown-allowed ratio in the country. Running quarterbacks have been particularly problematic, and Gronowski’s dual-threat ability presents a nightmare matchup.
Personally, this writer thinks that their pass defense has benefitted mightily from decreased number of passing plays given the horrendous state of their rushing D. They’re seeing the fewest number of passing attempts of any defense ranked in the top 20 (24.3, ~4 fewer per game than Iowa’s 8th ranked passing defense) and giving up roughly the same number of TDs, yards per attempt, and have half as many INTs as Iowa (with no TDs and only ~20 yards total on their 5 picks). Additionally, their defensive backs have struggled to tackle in space and have been gashed by mobile signal-callers all season. Gronowski rushed for 130 yards and two touchdowns against Penn State — who’s rushing defense comes in nearly 50 spots higher than the Blackshirts. If Nebraska can’t slow him down with their front seven, the back end will be in constant crisis mode.
ADVANTAGE: Iowa. The numbers here aren’t particularly close. Iowa’s defense is elite in every meaningful category, while Nebraska’s schematic vulnerability against the run is exactly the kind of weakness Tim Lester will exploit relentlessly.
Special Teams
Iowa - 42.6 punt avg, 76% FG (19-25), 25.9 kickoff return avg, 29.2 punt return avg Nebraska - 39.9 punt avg, 81.3% FG (13-16), 28.9 kickoff return avg, 13.5 punt return avg
Iowa has the advantage here, and it’s the kind of edge that wins games in Lincoln. Kaden Wetjen is the best returner in college football, averaging 28.3 yards per punt return — first in the nation and first in Big Ten history. He’s returned three punts for touchdowns this season, including a 95-yarder against UMass and a 62-yarder against Michigan State last week. His four career punt return touchdowns are tied for third-most in Big Ten history.
Drew Stevens’ senior season has not been perfect, but he still owns the program record with 73 career made field goals. Last week he kicked his fourth career game-winning field goal (three of which have come on the final play) — including a 53-yarder last year to send Nebraska packing. He’s already proven he can deliver in Memorial Stadium when the game is on the line.
Nebraska has a pretty special returner of their own in WR Kenneth Williams who is averaging 32.9 ypkr and has taken one to the house already this season. They’ve got 4 return men averaging 20+ yards per return, so they’re not to be taken lightly on kickoffs. Kyle Cunanan has been pretty solid in the kicking game as well, hitting on 81.3% of his FGAs (13/16) and he still hasn’t missed an XP this season. Their punter Archie Wilson hasn’t been spectacular, but all he’s really responsible for on Friday is keeping the ball as far away from Kaden Wetjen as possible, so his 39.9 ypp average shouldn’t really figure in too heavily.
ADVANTAGE: Iowa. Wetjen alone is worth 7-10 points.
Numbers to Watch
1/4/6/8 – Without TJ Hall (questionable as of 11/26) in the lineup the Dougboy$ add Deshaun Lee to their rotation against a Freshman QB that doesn’t have the pocket presence or arm strength of his predecessor. Penn State only managed to get to him once, but he went from a 267.5 passer rating against UCLA to a 99.8 passer rating against the Nittany Lions, almost assuredly due to the continuous pressure brought on passing downs (18 of 22 passing attempts were made under duress). The 98 yards Nebraska gained through the air was their lowest total of the season and I have to imagine that X, Koen, Zach, and Deshaun will be itching to add to their INT number for the season.
11 – Mark Gronowski’s 13 rushing touchdowns lead the Big Ten and rank sixth nationally among all players. They’re the most by an Iowa quarterback in a single season, breaking a record that stood for decades. Nebraska’s run defense is allowing rushing touchdowns at the highest rate in the nation, which is a catastrophic matchup problem. Gronowski should have eight to 10 designed runs and could easily find the end zone multiple times on the ground.
14 – TJ Lateef took over the Cornhuskers’ starting quarterback job after Dylan Raiola suffered a season-ending injury against USC. The backup has provided a different dynamic than Raiola, adding more mobility and scrambling ability to Nebraska’s offense. In his first start against UCLA, Lateef completed passes to multiple receivers and kept drives alive with his legs. He doesn’t have Raiola’s arm strength or accuracy, but he’s more willing to tuck it and run, which caused problems for Iowa’s defense against Penn State, USC, and Michigan State.
21 – Emmett Johnson’s 1,234 rushing yards make him one of only four running backs nationally to eclipse 1,200 yards. He’s the first Nebraska player to top 1,000 yards rushing since Devine Ozigbo in 2018. Iowa’s run defense has been stout all season, ranking 14th nationally at 101.6 yards per game allowed. If Iowa can keep Johnson at or under 100 yards, Nebraska’s offense loses its identity.
21 – Kaden Wetjen’s 28.3 yppr leads the nation and is currently number one in Big Ten history. He’s taken three punts back for touchdowns this season, and Nebraska’s punt coverage has been shaky at best. If the Huskers give him any space, he will score. It’s not a question of if, but when.
Lines
Spread: Iowa -6Over/Under: 38.5
Iowa opened as a 4.5-point favorite and the line has moved to as high a -6.5 as money poured in on the Hawkeyes. That’s a significant amount of respect for a road favorite in a rivalry game on a short week. But frankly, it’s justified. Nebraska hasn’t beaten Iowa in Lincoln since 2011, and the Huskers are coming off a 37-10 thrashing by Penn State that exposed their run defense as completely non-functional.
The over/under of 38.5 feels about right for an Iowa game. The Hawkeyes will score between 20-27 points by grinding out methodical drives and capitalizing on one or two explosive special teams plays. Nebraska might put up 17-21 if Johnson has a big game, but Iowa’s defense will tighten up in the red zone and force field goal attempts.
Let’s hope the boys can go out on a winning note and prove, once again, that Iowa has the best corn.
As always, GO HAWKS!!!
