These days the NHL is harder to predict than ever. Take a look back at last year’s offering (or..don’t) where my 7th and 8th placed teams ended up finishing 2nd and 3rd. To varying degrees, everyone is trying to be good enough to make the playoffs this season in this division, no one is in a long rebuild or virtually punting on this season for later years. The NHL has never had more parity than it has now, where any team can win or lose against any other team on any given night.
That’s likely to hold
again this season, making it a pure guessing game of how the season will shake out. But it’s fun to put it down and see if things will unfold even remotely the way the conventional wisdom in the summer/fall might suggest. I thought about literally picking teams out of a hat for 3-8 this year but then it gave me Columbus and the Rangers at the top of the list so I thought twice about that idea and figured maybe things won’t be quite that random. Then again, the degree of confidence is pretty low.
About all we know for sure is that there will be 2-3 teams and fanbases bitterly disappointed with how the season goes. A few teams who don’t want or anticipate finishing low are going to have to end up there.
2026-27 Metropolitan Division Predictions
- Carolina Hurricanes (54-25-5, 113 points)
- Washington Capitals (51-26-7, 109 points)
- Philadelphia Flyers (43-34-7, 93 points)
- New Jersey Devils (44-36-4, 92 points)
- Pittsburgh Penguins (42-35-7, 91 points)
- New York Rangers (39-35-8, 86 points)
- Columbus Blue Jackets (37-37-10, 84 points)
- New York Islanders (38-39-7, 83 points)
This outlook is top-heavy then a bunch of teams in the middle that could easily sort out any which way.
Carolina has finished first or second in the division for the last six years, putting them above the fray is about the only thing to feel pretty sure about. They have a Stanley Cup hangover and Seth Jarvis rehabbing a shoulder to worry about, but all in all, they should remain the easiest choice for a team on a sure-fire playoff track given that they’re returning just about a complete team from last year that remains very good in a perfect system to chew up wins on a regular basis.
The Capitals have added a lot, and could feature as many as 10 players that stand 6’4”+. Not only are they big, they have a solid goalie (who probably doesn’t get as much credit as he’s been due) and have added Alex Tuch and Jordan Kyrou to transform their attack that once was poor in transition that figures to be upgraded. They’re deep everywhere and look pretty darn good on paper. Washington doesn’t have many, if any, holes so their floor for the regular season appears to be pretty high.
After that, the wild mess starts – where we project a finish from 3-8 that is separated by just ten total points. A couple of different results or a very hot or cold week by any of these teams could about completely invert the ordering here.
Philadelphia has been a team on the ascent and has a lineup that looks like it could be a third place team this year. Why not? They have some questions about how strong they might be down the middle and whether goalie Dan Vladar has the staying power and consistency to be an above average player for a prolonged amount of time but they have enough firepower to be in the playoff hunt again.
New Jersey could be the most variable team on the list. On paper and under the hood, you would expect big things out of them. The problem becomes their results over the past few years have been checkered at best and often derailed by injuries. They’ve bolstered their forward group (Anthony Mantha, Luke Evanglista, Evan Rodrigues joining up) to get deeper but it’s tough to fully buy into a team that is going to require players who never seem to stay healthy to stay healthy and a goalie crease of 36-year old Jake Allen and Nico Daws. (If this team somehow acquires Connor Hellebuyck, the outlook gets instantly changed).
I’ll put the Penguins right in the hunt, though their variability in net looms large. Arturs Silovs might not be a viable 1A and their are unproven young goalies behind him, that’s not a lot to hang a hat on right now. The other obvious issue is most of the Penguins’ best players are 35+ and sooner or later the returns from even the greats get diminished. If things go right, as they did last year, Pittsburgh is capable of making the playoffs. But the margin of error for a team with a leaky defense and questions in net is very, very thin. It’s going to take a lot from Sidney Crosby and Dan Muse to coax out a successful year.
The Rangers are a tough team to clock. Adding Sean Durzi and Marcus Pettersson will go a long way towards stabilizing the blueline. Getting Pavel Dorofeyev should solve the recent-ish loss of Artemi Panarin. And they still have a franchise goalie who can raise all ships by giving a monster performance. Something still feels a little off for the quick rebuild they’ve attempted to coalsce immediately, but they shouldn’t be a pushover.
Columbus is another team where you might as well put on a blindfold and throw a dart and see where it lands. They are capable of putting stretches together of quality play, they also have a coach who can be at odds with the team’s buy-in and fitness levels. The turmoil never seems to end, their best defenseman floated that he might not want to stay, yet vetoed a trade over the summer. They just traded their best forward in Kirill Marchenko in a move that downgrades their talent on paper. Not to mention one of their best centers missed a large portion of training camp due to a contract dispute. There just too much toxicity swirling around every corner to believe in them, even though there’s a chance that somehow they band together and take a step forward before more collapses around them even further.
The Islanders are put in last, because someone has to go here. Pete DeBoer is a good coach and Matthew Schaefer is a transformative player, so this is risky. They won’t be last by much, it’s not like they’re a totally inept team. But NYI basically didn’t replace captain Anders Lee and that figures to be a major loss. They’re also a sneaky older team where the average age of their six highest-paid forwards is 33, age of the defense besides Schaefer is north of 30, and the NHL skews younger and faster every season and the only real U25 talent they have being Schaefer and Calum Ritchie could stand out as a problem. Maybe DeBoer, a good top line and Ilya Sorokin get them out of the absolute basement but the ceiling in general looks pretty darn low this year on the Island so last place for them feels as right as putting anyone else here.
Let us know what you think the order of teams in the division will be and we can all look back in seven months and laugh together at the outcome.
