After an offseason that always lasts an eternity, college basketball is upon us, and the Michigan Wolverines will start defending their national title Monday night.
With Michigan’s season almost underway, this is the perfect time to throw some bold predictions out there. I’m going to try to do better than I did last year, when I predicted Michigan would be a 1-seed in the NCAA Tournament. I went 1-for-5, so lets try to at least double that mark this season.
Without further ado…
A Michigan guard is named to the All-Big Ten First Team, and it’s not Elliot Cadeau
I had a bold prediction
on SB Nation Preseason Ballot on Land Grant Holy Land, and I’m sticking to it — I think Trey McKenney will be named First-Team All-Big Ten.
We saw McKenney be a key bench piece for Michigan last season, and he got better as the season went along. We saw his high work ethic last offseason when he cut 18 pounds by working out constantly and switching to sugar-free candy. He’s still grinding; as Tony Garcia featured in an excellent piece posted on The Detroit Free Press ($) that Michigan had to temporarily disable his key card because he tried to get into the Player Development Center less than a week after the Wolverines won the national title.
McKenney can score at all three levels, has improved drastically on defense, and is bound for the NBA in the near future. I think Michigan will finish in the top three in the Big Ten, and he’ll be a big part of it.
Quinn Costello will lead Michigan in bench scoring more than Roddy Gayle & L.J. Cason did combined last season
Looking at game logs from last season, bench players led Michigan in scoring in only three games last season — L.J. Cason did it twice and Roddy Gayle Jr. did it once.
I think freshman forward Quinn Costello will double that mark on his own this season. As Cadeau said at Big Ten Media Day, Costello is a future NBA player who might be Michigan’s best three-point shooter.
Offense will be harder to come by for Michigan this season by default — as fun as this roster is, I don’t think it features three players who will be drafted in the lottery next summer — and the Big Ten schedule is always a grind. I envision Costello getting hot in more than a few Big Ten games and leading Michigan in scoring six times.
Roddy Gayle Jr. will post a career high in three-point percentage
Gayle shot 42.9 percent from three on 1.4 attempts his freshman year at Ohio State, and he hasn’t shot better than 31.8 percent since then. While three-point shooting has never been his biggest strength, Gayle will get plenty of attempts this season,with Cadeau and McKenney driving to the rim and looking to kick it out. Combine that with the fact Gayle knows this offense like the back of his hand, and I think he bests that mark from three on more attempts.
This may be the boldest prediction on here, considering shooting 43 percent from three would place him in the top-15 in all of the sport based on last year’s stats. But I have faith in Gayle to have a great season and play his way into being a late first-round pick.
A Wolverine will lead the Big Ten in total blocks and blocks per game for the second year in a row
Following in the shoes of Aday Mara, I think Cincinnati transfer center Moustapha Thiam will be a great anchor at the back of Michigan’s defense. Mara’s length, basketball IQ and quick instincts helped him lead the Big Ten in total blocks and blocks per game last season.
Thiam has a lot of those same traits as Mara, and with Mike Boynton Jr. being a defense-first coach, locking down on that end of the floor will be a priority. We’ve already seen Thiam protect the rim well in three exhibitions, and I think he’s good enough defensively to lead the Big Ten in total blocks and blocks per game like Mara did last year.
Boynton will meet three of the four benchmarks in his contract
Speaking of Boynton, according to the contract Maize n Brew received via FOIA request, he must meet two of the following four performance bench marks to make Year 2 of the contract guaranteed:
- Win 24 regular-season games
- Finish in the top-four of the Big Ten regular-season standings
- Win the Big Ten Tournament
- Reach the Sweet 16 in the NCAA Tournament
Those benchmarks are null and void if Michigan makes the Final Four, but with how elite the teams at the top of the sport are this season (Duke, Houston, Florida, Illinois, Michigan State unfortunately), I don’t see that happening.
Michigan doesn’t have the depth it did last season, but with experienced guards, a fifth-year wing in Gayle who can be relied upon on both ends, good transfer big men and some intriguing young pieces, I think Michigan is good enough to meet three of those four benchmarks.
Twenty-four regular seasons wins would mean Michigan wins five less games than last season, which feels doable. I like Michigan to finish third in the Big Ten behind MSU and Illinois, and I think the Wolverines have enough talent and experience to make it to the vaunted second weekend of the NCAA Tournament.
What are your bold predictions for the upcoming season? Let us know down in the comments section.
