I started a project with a plan for three light-weight articles while we fill the dead space before the Winter Meetings kick in the hot portion of the Hot Stove League. These would be one each for the biggest
surprise in the category of defense, offense and pitching. I did pitchers and hitters and now I finish with defenders.
Who was the most surprising (in a good way) defender this year? This really comes down to one of three players: Victor Scott II, Masyn Winn and Willson Contreras. No one else had anything approaching a standout defensive season.
First, we have Masyn Winn, who climbed from +3 OAA in 2024 to +21 in 2025. Impressive.
Second only to Bobby Witt, Jr. On a rate basis, Masyn kept pace, but Witt got 200 more innings in and collected a couple more OAA as a result. Certainly, a climb from middle of the pack to elite defensively is noteworthy. I can’t say enough. I will be happy to watch him man the SS in St. Louis for however long he wishes. But in thinking through this, is this really a surprise? I think if you watched him, you could see that was in there. Maybe it wouldn’t come quite as fast as it did, but it was in there. So, I didn’t take him as the most pleasant surprise, because we really aren’t all that surprised, are we? After his MLB debut in 2023, I was impressed at how much he worked to come back a better version of himself in 2024, which he accomplished. Here I am again in 2025, impressed at how much he dedicated himself to improving, which he again accomplished. His next level is on the offensive side, and I think we’ve seen enough of his dedication and competitiveness where I won’t be surprised if we see a better hitter next year (and the hitter he is right now isn’t bad).
Then there is Victor Scott II. He climbed from +3 OAA in 2024 to +16 in 2025.
Really, though, that climb was more about being consistent enough to get enough innings to accumulate OAA. His somewhat low +3 in 2024 would have been undoubtedly much higher if he had been in CF (in St. Louis) more often that year. Again, his defense really wasn’t that surprising. How fast he found his level maybe was, but not the skill level. What is with that whole arm value thing? Is that really about the length of his arms (the reach?). Can someone explain that one to me? Now if he could only hit at an average rate…
That leaves Willson Contreras. Did you know that among regular first baseman (ie. more than 800 innings played), he finished 4th in the majors in OAA for first baseman? This in pretty much his first season playing the position. I think most people were hoping he’d be an average first baseman.
As in zero OAA was the hoped for outcome (really, among regular first baseman, -1 OAA is average. Weird.) Yet there he was putting up a +6 OAA in his first year at the position. Good. But I’d venture most people were surprised at that outcome.
I didn’t show the whole Statcast picture, but you probably realize there is a lot of red on the offensive side, too. Willson Contreras the first baseman is the whole package. Good offense, good defense. Just don’t look at those baserunning stats.
So there you have it.
Svanson the most surprising pitcher.
Herrera the most suprising hitter.
Contreras the most surprising defender.
What (or who) will next year’s surprises be?
