Back in January I posted five bold predictions for the Cubs this season.
And two of them still actually have a chance of happening!
Those two are: Pete Crow-Armstrong having a 40/40 season (he’d have to step up his pace a bit, but given how hot a hitter he’s been, it’s still possible) and the Cubs winning 92 games and the NL Central.
The other three? Well… not so much. You can go look at that article to see how wrong I was.
Since we’re heading into the “second half” (really the “second 40 percent”) of
the 2026 season tomorrow, I thought I’d post some more bold predictions about what might happen for the Cubs in what remains of 2026.
Ready? Here goes.
Ben Brown will come back from his injury and become a co-closer with Daniel Palencia
It was hinted recently by manager Craig Counsell that Brown was going to start throwing off a mound soon and that when he came back, he’d likely be an “out-getter.” That’s Counsell’s usual phrase for a reliever who could throw in several different spots.
This seems a likely role for Brown, who could share closer duties with Palencia, who’s also coming off an injury (and we don’t yet know when either will return).
This sort of tandem would, I think, be beneficial to both pitchers.
Dansby Swanson will set a new career high in home runs
Swanson, as you know, was mired in an awful slump before he got hot in mid-June. In 22 games since June 17 Swanson is batting .310/.330/.702 (26-for-84) with nine home runs. He has 17 long balls for the season.
Nine home runs in 22 games. He needs just 11 more in 66 games for a career high, which would make 28. I think he can do it. He’s got an outside chance at 30.
Alex Bregman will finish the season with an OPS over .800 and 20 homers
From 2022-25 — even with his 2025 season truncated by injury — Bregman averaged 23 home runs per year and posted an .803 OPS.
There are 66 games remaining. Figure Bregman plays in 60 of them (though it could be more), and for a round number let’s say he has 250 plate appearances.
He’d have to hit .296/.354/.588 for the rest of the season to get there, with final numbers of .274/.350/.457, with a total of 20 home runs, a triple and 28 doubles. (Forgive me if my math is off, math was never my strong suit. But you get the general idea.)
I think he can do it.
The Cubs will trade for Reid Detmers and he’ll solidify the rotation
Why Detmers? Because he’s exactly the kind of starter who appeals to Jed Hoyer & Co.
He’s young (27). He’s not making much this year ($2.625 million). He’s under team control for two more seasons.
Detmers got off to a rough start this year, but had a seven-start run in May and June in which he posted a 2.42 ERA (2.79 FIP) and 0.783 WHIP. He doesn’t walk guys (7.7 percent walk rate) and generally keeps the ball in the yard (12 homers in 108.2 innings).
Trading for Detmers would make the Cubs rotation decidedly left-handed but who knows? Maybe that’s a benefit in the postseason.
The Cubs will win 94 games and the NL Central and get a first-round bye
I’m upping my prediction from January.
The Cubs are 54-42. They would have to go 40-26 to win 94 games. That’s a .606 winning percentage, which is a 98-win pace for an entire season. But 54-42 gets you to 91 wins if you continue at that pace, so 94 isn’t all that much more. Also, over the last four and a half weeks the Cubs have been much better than that — 20-8 since they dropped to .500 by losing to the Rockies June 10. That .714 winning percentage in that span is the best record in MLB.
In order to overtake the Brewers by going 40-26 the rest of the way, the Brewers would have to go 35-31 (this assumes a tie at 94-68 with the Cubs having the tiebreaker), which is obviously quite a bit worse than the Brewers record now. But Milwaukee comes out of the All-Star break having lost four of five and with pitching injuries. Last year it was the Brewers who went on a run after the break and the Cubs who played near .500. Why not the reverse this year?
The other part of the prediction is the first-round bye, which I’ll give to the Cubs over the Braves, who should win the NL East.
