Happy New Year from the other side of the international date line, Commanders fans!
The Commanders cemented their hold on 7th place in the draft order in a hard-fought, but ultimately unsuccessful 23-30
home loss to the Dallas Cowboys.
This late in a losing season, teams begin to look more to the future than the present. As disappointing as the Commanders’ 13th loss may have been to some, others will derive hope from some promising signs from some of the younger players on the roster, who seized opportunities when regular starters were sidelined with injuries.
Most notably, second year DT Johnny Newton got his most playing time to date, with Daron Payne sidelined with injury. Newton capitalized on the opportunity by delivering the type of dominant performance that fans were expecting after Adam Peters revealed that the Commanders considered trading up to get him when he slid out of the first round of the draft.
In addition to Newton, little known rookie UDFA Ricky Barber announced his presence in his first elevation to the active roster, with a performance which was on a par with his better known teammate’s breakout day on a down-for-down basis.
In an otherwise lacklustre performance, those two standout efforts, together with some strong play from a few members of the supporting cast, might help to inspire hope for a rebound from this season’s disappointment.
Stats Sources
Stats were sourced from the NFL, Pro Football Reference (PFR), Pro Football Focus (PFF), or ESPN. NFL official stats were used whenever available. When the source is not indicated, it means either than NFL official stats were used or that there was agreement between stats services. The source is not always indicated if a stat is only available from one source (eg. PFF: stops, run stops, Y/RR, QB hurries; ESPN: QBR).
BIGGEST PLAYS OF THE GAME
Expected Points Added (EPA) quantifies the contribution of individual plays to a team’s scoring potential on a drive. These are all the plays with EPA greater than 2.4 or less than -2.4.
Biggest Plays for Commanders
Q3, 9:44, 1st and 10 at WAS 28: Jacory Croskey-Merritt right tackle for 72 yards, touchdown. EPA 6.19
Q1, 7:37, 1st and 10 at DAL 47: Josh Johnson pass complete short right to Deebo Samuel for 41 yards. EPA 3.37
Q3, 2:24, 2nd and 10 at DAL 49: Josh Johnson pass complete short right to Chris Moore for 15 yards. Penalty on Shavon Revel: Face Mask (15 Yards), 15 yards (accepted). EPA 2.53
Q2, 11:26, 2nd and 12 at WAS 27: Josh Johnson pass complete deep middle to Deebo Samuel for 27 yards. EPA 2.46
Q4, 13:36, 4th and 7 at WAS 40: Brandon Aubrey 58 yard field goal no good. EPA -2.72
Biggest Plays for Cowboys
Q2, 7:11, 3rd and 11 at DAL 14: Dak Prescott pass complete deep middle to KaVontae Turpin for 86 yards, touchdown. Penalty on Frankie Luvu: Defensive Offside, 5 yards (declined). EPA 8.51
Q1, 1:31, 4th and 1 at WAS 50: Dak Prescott pass complete short middle to George Pickens for 19 yards. EPA 3.57
Q3, 5:49, 4th and 20 at DAL 48: Penalty on Frankie Luvu: Unnecessary Roughness / Defense, 15 yards (accepted, no play). EPA 3.37
Q4, 6:32, 4th and 2 at DAL 45: Dak Prescott pass complete short right to Jalen Tolbert for 7 yards. EPA 2.78
Q3, 7:41, 3rd and 8 at DAL 34: Dak Prescott pass complete deep right to CeeDee Lamb for 24 yards. EPA 2.69
Q1, 11:05, 3rd and 5 at WAS 26: Dak Prescott pass complete short left to George Pickens for 19 yards. EPA 2.66
Q1, 13:08, 4th and 1 at DAL 44: Javonte Williams right guard for 4 yards. EPA 2.59
OFFENSE
Third-string backup QB Josh Johnson acquitted himself in a workmanlike manner, completing 15/25 attempts (65.2%, ADOT 8.3 yds) for 198 yds, with no turnovers, while taking just 1 sack for 8 yards. He also ran twice for 10 yards. His effort earned a 21.5 Total QBR, which ranked 27th among 32 starters in Week 17.
Bill Croskey-Merritt bounced back from his 25 yd/1 TD effort against Philadelphia to put up big numbers against the Cowboys. His numbers provide a good illustration of what stat lines do and don’t tell you.
Against the Cowboys, Bill ran 11 times for 105 yds (9.5 Y/A), 2 TDs and 3 first downs, with 3 broken tackles. While the stat line was good for another Pepsi Rookie of the Week nomination, he only achieved a 36.4% Rushing Success Rate.
The low success rate was due to the fact that all of Bill’s rushing success came on just 4 of 11 rushing attempts. Furthermore, 69% of his total rushing yardage came on a single 72 TD run. If we take that one play away, his numbers look much more pedestrian: 10 att, 33 yds (3.3 Y/A), 1 TD. But the thing is, we can’t take that big run away. Explosive plays make a difference. Which is why he deserves the award nomination. Saquon Barkley won league MVP last year based on a similar pattern of big plays interspersed among a larger number of runs for small gains. Not that I’m saying that Bill is Saquon, well, not yet at least.
Pro Football Reference (PFR) recorded 71 yards before contact (YBC). That figure appears to blown out by counting him as untouched on the 72 yard run. In that case, his 6.5 YBC/Att figure is probably not very informative about what happened on a down to down basis. Pro Football Focus (PFF), in contrast thought he was hit in the backfield on the big run. Their numbers were -15 YBC and -1.36 YBC/Att. Putting the two sets of figures together, and exempting the big run which was scored differently, it appears that Bill was struggling to get out of the backfield cleanly on most of his runs.
Jeremy McNichols took 1 handoff for -2 yds, which is at least consistent with the story I just spun about Bill. McNichols also caught 3/3 targets for 12 yds.
Deebo Samuel led Commmanders’ receivers with 68 receiving yards. He caught 2/4 targets (50%) for 68 yds, with a long of 41 at an ADOT of 8.0 yds. He gained 53 Yards After the Catch, which accounted for 77.9% of his receiving total, with 1 broken tackle. Despite the low number of targets, he was still the Commanders’ most productive receiver with more than 1 target, at a an impressive 2.96 Y/RR.
Deebo also ran twice for 25 yds, including 1 long run of 29 yards and 1 loss of 4 yds.
He picked up a 5 yard penalty for a false start in the second quarter.
Terry McLaurin was second on the team with 63 receiving yards. He caught 5/7 targets (71.4%) at a team-high 11.6 yd ADOT. He was the third most productive receiver at a very good 2.52 Y/RR. He caught 1 of 3 contested targets, which explains the 2 he did not catch.
Despite playing the most of the WRs, Treylon Burks was only targeted twice, catching 1 for 11 yds.Chris Moore caught his lone target for 15 yds.
Ben Sinnott had a career day of sorts. He caught 3/4 targets for 29 yds with a long of 12. His 4 receiving targets doubled his previous high. And his 3 receptions were 50% higher than his previous career mark. Sinnott spent 25% of his offensive snaps as a run blocker, which is lower than usual. His 69.5 PFF run blocking grade was second highest on the team after Terry McLaurin at 79.9.
John Bates was not targeted as a receiver. He was utilized as a blocker on 74% of his offensive snaps. His run blocking grade was fairly pedestrian at 49.9.
Brandon Coleman made his second start at LT, in place of Laremy Tunsil who is out with an oblique injury. Coleman allowed 1 QB hurry in 28 dropbacks. His 3.6% Pressure Rate is in the good range for OTs. His 45.1 run blocking grade was well below his 71.2 season grade.
Coleman was penalized 10 total yards for false starts in the 3rd and 4th quarters.
RG Chris Paul also allowed 1 hurry in 28 dropbacks. His 3.6% Pressure Rate would be good for an OT, but is on the margin for an iOL. But you shouldn’t get too excited about a single event in a sample of 28. His 29.9 run blocking grade was low, even by his standards (season grade 39.6).
Starting C Tyler Biadasz left the game with knee and ankle injuries. Before leaving the field, Biadasz allowed 1 QB hurry in 9 dropbacks (11.1%), which is a lot higher than we’d like to see, but in a very small sample. His 65.9 run blocking grade was the third highest on the team, after Terry and Ben Sinnott.
Nick Allegretti started the game at RG, in place of injured starter Sam Cosmi. When Biadasz was injured, Allegretti took over at C, with Andrew Wylie replacing him at RG. Allegretti allowed 1 QB hit and 1 hurry, for a 7.1% Pressure Rate, which is about double the acceptable rate for iOL. He received a 45.8 run blocking grade.
RT Josh Conerly Jr. had a rough day in pass protection, allowing 1 sack and 1 QB hurry, for a 7.1% Pressure Rate. That figure is a little high for an OT, but not unusual for a rookie. Conerly’s 58.3 run blocking grade was below his 64.6 season grade.
Andrew Wylie allowed 1 QB hit in 19 dropbacks (5.3% Pressure Rate) while filling in at RG. He received a 37.8 run blocking grade for his efforts on 10 rushing downs.
DEFENSE
The Commanders’ edge group featured two situational pass rushers leading a cast of third string backups and mid-season FA signees.
Jalyn Holmes played mainly at DE, with the most snaps on the left side of the line. He led the tackle count among edge defenders with 2 tackles and 3 assists. He contributed to 3 run stops, and led the edge defenders with a 12.5% Run Stop Rate. He generated just 1 QB hurry on 22 pass rush attempts (4.5% Pressure Rate).
Jacob Martin was originally signed to replace Dante Fowler as the designated pass rusher before Von Miller became available. He has taken over as a starting edge defender after all the original starters were injured. He played mostly at OLB, but split snaps more or less evenly between the left and right side of the line.
Martin made 1 tackle and 3 assists. He contributed to 2 run (7.7% Run Stop rate). In the pass rush, he contributed 1 QB hit and 1 hurry on 34 dropbacks (5.9% Pressure Rate).
Former Redskin Preston Smith played less than half as much as Martin, almost exclusively at RDE. He still managed to register 2 tackle assists, 0.5 sack (shared with Bobby Wagner), 1 QB hit, and 1 hurry. He led all Commanders’ defenders with an elite-level 23.1% Pressure Rate on just 13 pass rush snaps.
Von Miller played exclusively at OLB with all but two snaps on the left edge. He made 2 tackles, including 1 run stop (11.1% Run Stop rate). In the pass rush, he made 1 sack and 1 QB hit (13.3% Pressure Rate).
Drake Jackson played mainly at ROLB, with a 16:10 split of snaps between pass rush and run defense. He contributed 1 tackle assist.
The DT group had two breakout performances as young players took over the workload from absent starters.
Johnny Newton got the most playing time in a game to date, taking over the reps at LDT that would normally go to Daron Payne. He rewarded the Commanders with a career performance. According to official NFL stats, Newton made 3 tackles and 9 assists, 2 TFL, 3 sacks, and 5 QB hits. Using those figures, Newton pressured the QB on an amazing 29.6% of dropbacks. The tackles included three run stops, for a10.7% run stop rate, which is very good for an interior defender.
Newton was penalized 5 yds for holding on a 1st and 10 play in the 4th quarter. It was his second penalty this season.
Ricky Barber was a low key UDFA signing after last April’s draft. A lot of fans probably didn’t know he was on the practice squad. He was elevated to the active roster for the first time for this game.
He played 15 snaps on the interior of the line, mirroring the distribution of alignments normally occupied by Eddie Goldman, who is 25 lbs heavier. Barber played bigger than his size, recording 2 tackles, 3 assists, 1 TFL, 1 sack and 1 QB hit. That equates to making a play on the ball on 46.7% of defensive snaps when he was on the field. He pressured the QB on 25% of dropbacks. He needs to play more.
Javon Kinlaw made 5 tackles and 2 assists, with 1 missed tackle and 2 run stops (6.5% Run Stop Rate). He generated 1 QB hurry in 27 dropbacks (3.7% Pressure Rate).
Shy Tuttle was claimed off waivers from Tennessee last week, when Eddie Goldman was placed on IR. Tuttle is a 6’3”, 300 lb seven year veteran DT, who started for 4 seasons with the Saints and Panthers. In just 14 snaps at DT and NT, Tuttle recorded 1 tackle and 2 assists, contributing to 2 run stops (28.6% Run Stop Rate).
Sheldon Day played 19 defensive snaps and recorded 1 tackle assist.
As usual, Bobby Wagner led the Commanders in total tackles, although this time he shared the honor with Will Harris. Wagner made 5 tackles and 5 assists, including 2 run stops (4.8% Run Stop Rate). In pass defense, he contributed 0.5 sack (shared with Preston Smith), 2 QB hits and 1 PBU. Altogether, he contributed to 3 defensive stops and pressured the QB on 30% of pass rush attempts.
He was targeted 4 times in coverage, conceding 1 reception for 14 yds, per PFF. PFR recorded 2 targets and 0 receptions.
Frankie Luvu recorded 3 tackles and 4 assists, with 2 run stops (4.8% Run Stop Rate). PFR blames him for 2 missed tackles (22.2% Missed Tackle Rate), while PFF counted 3 (33.3% MTR). He generated 2 QB hurries in 19 pass rush attempts (10.5% Pressure Rate).
Luvu committed his first two penalties of the season. His 15 yard unnecessary roughness penalty to give Dallas the conversion on 4th and 20 in the 3rd quarter was one of the biggest plays for the Cowboys in the game. He was also flagged for defensive offside on Kavonte Turpin’s 86 yd TD reception, but the penalty was declined.
Jordan Magee played the second most defensive snaps of his career. He recorded 1 tackle and 3 assists, with 1 TFL and 3 total defensive stops.
Magee was targeted twice in 22 coverage snaps. He made 1 PBU and allowed 1 reception for -1 yds. Those are pretty good coverage numbers.
Mike Sainristil played outside CB, splitting time nearly equally between left and right sides. According to NFL stats, he made 3 tackles with 2 assists and 1 PBU. PFF charges him with 2 missed tackles, while PFR counted 3.
His coverage stats for this game differed radically between PFR and PFF. It was the farthest apart I have ever seen them get. PFR recorded 7 targets and 5 receptions for 52 yds, equating to 1.06 Y/Cov Snp. That is getting toward the high side, but still an acceptable rate of yardage allowed for a starting CB. PFF, on the other hand, recorded 10 tgt, 8 rec for 176 yds and 1 TD (3.59 Y/Cov Snp), which is around 3.5x higher than acceptable.
Antonio Hamilton played sparingly. His coverage stats were on the other side of the discrepancy over Sainristil’s. PFR attributed Kavonte Turpin’s 86 yd TD to Hamilton, as his only target of the game. PFF assigned it to Sainristil. That was Hamilton’s only appearance on the stat sheet, if it was his at all. It was the biggest play of the game by EPA/play. You could see why neither defender would want it on their tally.
Johnathan Jones started opposite from Mikey. He recorded 1 tackle assist and 2 PBUs.
The stats services were close to consensus on Jones in coverage. PFF recorded 2 rec/7 tgt for 31 yds (0.795 Y/Cov Snp). PFR only differed by counting 6 targets. It was a good day in coverage for Jones.
The one slight blemish on Jones’ performance was a 7 yd DPI flag in the 1st quarter.
Noah Igbinoghene was the primary slot CB, but was not credited with a start. Noah made 3 tackles and 3 assists. PFR blamed him for 1 missed tackle; while PFF counted 2.
Igbinoghene had a solid performance in coverage. He was targeted 5 times in coverage per PFF (PFR: 4), allowing 2 rec for 31 yds 0.963 Y/Cov Snp), with 2 PBU. He was penalized 9 yards for DPI to convert a 3rd down for the Cowboys in the 1st quarter.
Will Harris started at strong safety, as usual. He tied with Bobby Wagner for most tackles on the team. He recorded 5 tackles and 5 assists, with 1 run stop. According to PFF, he was not targeted in coverage. PFR recorded 3 targets and 1 reception for 14 yds.
Quan Martin was designated as the starter, but Jeremy Reaves took the majority of snaps at FS. Reaves made 4 tackles and 2 assists with 1 defensive stop. He was targeted 4 times in coverage, allowing 2 receptions for 30 yds per PFR, with 1 PBU. PFF recorded 2 tgt with no receptions.
All-Pro Reavo was penalized 5 yds for unsportsmanlike conduct in the 2nd quarter.
Martin made 1 tackle. He was targeted once in coverage and allowed a 6 yd TD reception by Jake Ferguson.
SPECIAL TEAMS
There was not a whole lot to get excited about from the specialists this week, aside from…
…Tress Way and the punt return coverage unit’s continued run of league domination.
There is precisely one way in which the 2025 Commanders stand head and shoulders above the rest of the NFL. And that is containing punt returns. (Actually, they might be equally good on kickoff returns. But it’s a lot more work to compile those stats for teams, since teams cycle through kickers more than punters, including Washington. Washington’s kickers are near the bottom in YPR this year as well. I’ll be digging into that in the offseason).
Way punted 3 times for 130 yds with no returns. That makes his net Yards Per Return (YPR) equal to his gross average YPR: 43.3 yds. Of his three punts, two were fair caught inside the Cowboys’ 20 yard line, and one was downed inside the 20. The Cowboys obviously thought better than to attempt a return against Washington’s elite coverage unit.
Way’s 0 return yards on punts helped to maintain his buffer over the rest of the league, whom he has been leading by the proverbial country mile for most of the season.
Heading into the final week of the regular season, Tressler William Way has punted 53 times for 2,496 yards, averaging 47.1 gross YPR and 43.8 net YPR. His 4.1 average YPR figure puts him well out in front of all other punters with a minimum of 15 attempts. The next closest qualifying punters are Jacksonville’s Logan Cooke and Buffalo’s Mitch Wishnowsky, tied at 6.3 YPR. The next four punters after Way are tightly bunched between 6.3 and 6.6 YPR. After them, everyone else is above 7.0 YPR.
Tress and Larry Izzo’s punt coverage unit have absolutely dominated the NFL in their particular area of specialization.
Of course, Tress could not do what he does without the rock solid long snapping of Tyler Ott, who once again avoided attention.
K Jake Moody was once again perfect on field goals (3/3, long 51) and extra points (2/2). This season, Moody is 12/13 on extra points and 18/21 on field goals. He has been a perfect 9/9 on field goals with Washington. The 51 yarder in this game was the only field goal he has attempted beyond 50 yards this season.
Aside from Way and Moody, the only other notable performance was Chris Moore’s 33 yard return on his only attempt.
Speaking of the coverage units, Tyler Owens, Mike Sainristil, Quan Martin and Chris Moore each made clean tackles in special teams coverage.
Jeremy Reaves and Colson Yankoff had one missed tackle apiece.
Tyler Owens was penalized 10 yards for an illegal block. Owens leads the Commanders’ special teams units with 5 penalties this season. Jordan Magee, Colson Yankoff and Percy Butler are tied in second place at 2 apiece.
For the season, Yankoff and Owens lead the Commanders in missed teams coverage tackles, at 5 apiece. That puts them in a 12-way tie for 16th most misses in the league. Readers should be aware that missed tackles on teams can be a misleading stat, since the first defender to arrive often fails to make the tackle, but sets up a stop by a teammate. The Commanders’ overall coverage results suggest that there is no problem in this area.
Nick Bellore leads the 2025 Commanders with 9 tackles (tie-52nd place), followed by Owens and Jeremy Reaves at 8 apiece.
