If there’s anything that I learned over the past week of watching the Red Sox, it’s that baseball can—believe it or not—be fun! God, remember what it was like to actually enjoy this team’s play?
After many in Red Sox Nation (myself included) started to worry about the trajectory of the 2026 season, Boston has won two straight sets against NL Central clubs. A series win against a very good Brewers team got things going, and a two-outta-three swing in St. Louis immediately afterwards helped get the club back
on track (relatively). Just like that, guess who’s two games back of the Yankees (some other teams as well, sure, but I think that narrative more) while posting a positive run differential?
The bats have woken up (more on that in a few paragraphs), the defense looks far better, and starters are actually pitching into the fifth inning—or, hell, even later! By the time we sit here next week, we could be back north of .500 after some existential questions regarding this project were being asked. Granted, we could also be right behind the eight ball again if we fail to take care of business against the Twinkies and the Motor City Kitties in the coming days.
Weird game, baseball.
Regardless, I’m just happy to see some quality play at long last. So let’s talk about some of that while we still can.
It’s Monday Morning Brushback time, y’all.
Have to wake up bats
No way to sugar coat it: the Red Sox’s offensive output in the first few weeks of the season was subpar. After dropping the first game to the Cardinals on Friday, Boston ranked 25th in the league in total team OPS; not a great sign for a team that plays half of its game at a hitter-friendly park and has played at other yards that allow for more offense such as Cincy and Houston.
However, an interesting tweet from Thomas Nestico (great follow) crossed my desk this weekend—one that certainly caught me by surprise. That post pointed out that the Red Sox’s hard hit rate has actually been pretty good so far this season, ranking within the top 10 across MLB prior to the start of play on Friday.
Again: those hard hit numbers don’t account for the crooked numbers our guys put up on Saturday and Sunday to secure their second consecutive series win. Entering play Sunday, the Sox’s hard hit percentage went up by just over a percentage point to 42.7% per Savant. What it looks like after Sunday’s victory…….I’m not sure, since I don’t believe that the site has been updated, but the trends are positive for us!
That information did give me some relief from what we’ve seen in terms of the run output thus far. Yeah, the offense has looked anemic at points, but the offensive profiles I had been optimistic about before the season still remain. Prior to Sunday’s finale, a total of nine Red Sox hitters had a hard hit rate that ranked within the 50th percentile league-wide or better. A good cohort of those same guys rank within the top half of MLB in other under-the-hood metrics; xwOBA, expected slugging, barrel rate, all that fun stuff.
One name notably not towards the top of those metrics: Roman Anthony, who’s been slow out of the gates when compared to the expectations many had for him at the season’s start. To reemphasize the point about profiles, though, that’s not someone I worry about. I still think he’s gonna come around in 2026 and be a great bat at the top of the order. I still think Willson Contreras projects to be a key part of this lineup (and you’ve really seen that come to fruition over the last few games). While he won’t keep up with the incredible pace he’s had to start the year, I think Wilyer Abreu’s breakout is here in earnest.
The skeleton of a solid (maybe not incredible, granted) offense is there, and the underlying metrics show it. During an entire season, those quality-of-contact traits should start to win out. This offense was never going to be as bad over the course of 162 games that we saw in the first 10. Perhaps this weekend was the shot in the arm this lineup needed to really get things cookin’. Or, maybe they’ll keep up with the backbreaking strikeouts and revert right back to their old ways. Who knows?
I’m willing to stick my neck out for the former, though. I’m not saying this is the ‘27 Yankees, and there are still fair questions to ask (Trevor Story and Caleb Durbin, let’s get some more consistent production with the lumber please) but I like enough of the pieces here in Boston and believe we’ll see a competitive lineup this season.
Suarez steps up
After a couple of false starts, let’s just go ahead and declare Saturday as the true start of the Ranger Suarez era! Best we just forget those first two appearances, right?
In all seriousness, nice job by the newest member of the rotation to bounce back following a pair of bad outings to start his tenure in Boston. Across six shutout innings in the Gateway City, Suarez struck out six Cards while surrendering just a trio of hits and a pair of walks. Things seemed like they were going to get hairy early on, but after a prolonged first inning he was able to lock in and efficiently work his way to a quality start.
It isn’t a secret as to how Ranger was able to produce a nice start in St. Louis, because it’s the thing that got him a nine-figure deal in the first place. He could make for a great real estate agent, because Suarez’s game comes down to three words: location, location, location.
According to FanGraphs, Suarez’s Location+ metric (“Location+ is a count- and pitch type-adjusted judge of a pitcher’s ability to put pitches in the right place”) was 111 in the prior two seasons; 100 is always average for these plus stats, in case you weren’t aware. That’s the second-best mark out of pitchers who threw at least 300 total innings across 2024 and 2025; only Paul Skenes (!!!!!) had him beat. It’s a huge reason as to why he posted ERAs below 3.50 in both of those campaigns: his location and his pitch mix is his bread and butter.
And yet, we really didn’t get to see that bread and butter until Saturday. I’m glad we eventually saw the blueprint for what works for Suarez, though! After having Location+ figures of 97 and 102 in his first two starts, that mark jumped up to 107 in Ranger’s third—and so far, best—outing.
He threw five offerings on at least seven occasions across his 84 pitches over the weekend, putting an added emphasis on the sinker (which he threw 46% of the time compared to the 31% usage of that pitch on the year) while notably logging three whiffs with his changeup. All of that success starts with the command, as Tommy Bennett points out below.
You can read more about Suarez by taking a look at the great Matthew Gross’ article that was posted onto OTM the other day, but Ranger’s charmed me with this most recent appearance. Once more, this is the profile of a pitcher that I’m not worried about long term. That’s the word of the day—profile—because I still trust in him to be a strong deputy to Garrett Crochet in the pitching staff considering his track record. Suarez isn’t the type of demon that can mow batters down like it’s nothing thanks to an incredible ability to miss bats, like Crochet, but he doesn’t have to.
Locate that junk and mix up the pitches. That’s how we win, Ranger.
For Whom The Bell Tolles
A quick word on southpaw prospect Payton Tolle to wrap things up, as all accounts show that he’s been cooking down in AAA and could be knocking on Boston’s door once again for a call up soon.
With the WooSox this weekend, Boston’s top prospect logged six punch outs across five innings and 75 pitches. He gave up three hits and issued only one free pass, while he initiated whiffs on 25% of his pitches. The piglet to Crochet’s pig, indeed.
What’s interesting about this stat, to me, is the amount of times he threw his cutter: 20 times, to be specific, so just over a quarter of the time. For reference, Tolle threw his cutter 42 total times (a rate of nearly 14%) in his 16.1 innings of MLB ball in 2025.
I think we all knew that the secondary offerings had to come before Tolle could be fully entrenched within Boston’s pitching staff. The four-seamer is incredible, yes, but he was throwing it about two-thirds of the time during his cup of coffee. Something with glove-side movement and a change of pace like that cutter, along with the breaking curve and the arm-side bite of a sinker, can keep batters honest. It’s simple analysis, but it seems to be coming to fruition.
I forget what date for a call up would guarantee the Red Sox another year of team control for Tolle, but I think it’s approaching in a matter of weeks. I’m sure we’ll be seeing him soon enough.
And if the pitching thing doesn’t work out, at least Tolle can fall back on his history teaching as a career option.
Song of the Week: “Going Shopping” by The Strokes
The boys are back, baby.
Same time and same place next week, friends! Go Sox.
