Almost no matter how you slice it, the Detroit Tigers have been pretty bad this year. Their overall record of 37-49 has them 12th in the American League, ahead of only the Kansas City Royals and LA Angels, facing down a likely selling role at the Trade Deadline. But, they’re only 6 games behind the Seattle Mariners for the final AL Wild Card slot, which gives a faint glimmer of hope.
In a typical year, that third Wild Card team would post about an 86 to 88 win season. The lowest it has been is the
83 win Cincinnati Reds from 2025. Given the overall weakness in the AL field this year, that lower end seems a reasonable target, which means chasing down something like an 85 win season should keep the Tigers thoroughly in the mix. That would be a .631 win rate for the final 76 games of the season, which is high but hardly impossible.
The big question: how do they get there?
Instead of answering this seriously – trade for a new bullpen, call up every Max in AAA, and reduce playing time for Matt Vierling, Jahmai Jones, and most of their relievers as much as possible, for a start – I decided to have a little fun with the extreme nature of Detroit’s season. Meaning I looked at all their ridiculous splits throughout a ridiculous season and found what situations favor Detroit the most. If they’re going to chase down the Mariners, or even more improbably the Guardians, they’ll have to play to their win conditions.
All stats are taken prior to the victory over the Yankees on July 1, 2026.
Environmental Factors
What time the Tigers play is, unfortunately, out of their control. However, if it was in their power, the Tigers should only play day games. The earlier the start time, the better. With the sun at their backs, the Tigers are a competitive 17-16. At night, they’ve sleepwalked their way to a 20-33 record. That won’t do the trick.
Where Detroit plays is also predetermined, and so is the result, seemingly. In the friendly confines of Comerica Park – not the Friendly Confines themselves, where Detroit has yet to visit – the Tigers are a respectable 23-21. When they pack their bags and travel, though, they’re a woeful 14-28. Ouch.
Opponent’s Factors
When it comes to opponents, the Tigers have a few clear preferences. Whether it’s a bugaboo about the Believeland Guardians or an overall talent issue, the Tigers are a brutal 9-16 against the rest of the AL Central. If you’re looking for a reason the team is at the back of the Central pack, that’s as good of a place to start. They’re a slightly better team when you look at the AL as a whole (26-36) or versus their National League foes (11-13). None of those light the world on fire, but they’re at least an improvement.
A weird one for you: the Tigers have been significantly better against good teams than bad ones. No, seriously, this doesn’t make any sense. How are the Tigers 23-21 when they play teams above .500, but 14-28 against everyone else? Do they just imitate whoever they face on any given day, rising to the occasion against the Yankees but floundering against the Twins and Angels? Utterly bizarre. Common sense says a playoff contender needs to take care of business against bad teams. Low hanging fruit and all that.
There’s one final split here that might actually be meaningful. The starting pitcher the Tigers face seems to greatly impact their odds of winning a game. Shocking, I know. Against a lefty starter, the Tigers are a mere 10-17; versus a righty, they’re a way-less-bad 27-32. Can anyone here figure out why they struggle against left handed starters? Anyone? I hate to pin it all on one guy, but we’re all thinking about the same guy, right?
Tiger’s Factors
OK, finally, the series of things Detroit can actually control. If Detroit’s going to take their season by the horns and claw their way back, this is a place to start.
For starters: keep Jake Rogers out of as many games as possible. The lineup is not deep enough to hide him at the bottom routinely, because hiding him at the bottom routinely means Outman, McKinstry, and Vierling can’t all hide at the bottom. They’ve got to keep Dillon Dingler healthy, but a 9-18 record with Rogers and a 28-31 record without him speaks volumes. Upgrade the backup catcher role next year if possible, and then Dingler can DH more and stay fresh throughout the season.
Another big one: get Gleyber Torres back in the lineup! He might not be their best hitter, but he sure seems to stabilize their lineup. A grind it out, depth-heavy lineup sure looks better when there’s another guy with a .400 OBP in it. Case in point: 23-20 with him, and 14-29 without him. Get healthy, Gleyber. We need you. Although Hao-Yu Lee is doing a really nice job in this second go around on both sides of the ball. Pretty impressive step in development going on there seemingly.
This last one comes down largely to “play better, win more”, but the sheer volume of games is what I’d like to call attention to. In games in which the Tigers hit multiple home runs, they’re 15-7, a whopping .682 pace that clears the .631 win rate I threw out earlier. In all other games, they’re 22-42. What stands out here is not the conclusion drawn – hitting home runs and winning have a large correlation for a reason – but the fact they’ve only hit multiple home runs 22 times seems problematic to me. Good teams tend to hit home runs in bunches, and the Tigers really haven’t done that. They should probably work on that.
There you have it, folks. If the Tigers want to make the playoffs, they should be sure to face National League playoff contenders, at Comerica, during the day, against right handed pitchers, and get Gleyber Torres into (and Jake Rogers out of) the lineup as much as possible. Oh, and hit a ton of home runs. And get a new high leverage relief corps…Keider Montero may be the start of that process, at least for this season.
They’re also 8-5 on Sunday, so maybe shift as many games as possible to Sunday.
Simple enough, right?
