If the Atlanta Falcons hope to rebound in Week 8 with a win over the Miami Dolphins, they will need to recommit to their run game, the foundation of their offense.
Atlanta was too pass-heavy in its loss to the San Francisco 49ers, which was reflected in an unbalanced stat line: 42 called passes to 18 designed runs. That disparity was reflected immediately in the team’s opening-game script for the first 15 to 20 plays. The Falcons only called four runs in their first 15 plays, and five in the first 20.
The Falcons’ offense centers on running back Bijan Robinson, but for whatever reason, the team abandoned that identity against the 49ers. It could be related to trying to jumpstart quarterback Michael Penix Jr., given his struggles on the road. However, the Falcons will need to learn a critical lesson by borrowing a page from the victorious 49ers, who, in head coach Raheem Morris’ words, “out-Atlanta-ed” them by establishing the run and being the more physical team.
49ers head coach Kyle Shanahan challenged his team to win by running the ball 40 times (they ultimately ran 39), and they responded well to that challenge. The Falcons need a similar intervention from Morris this week against the Dolphins.
That is especially true given concerns about Penix’s health after he suffered a bone bruise to his knee late in the fourth quarter against San Francisco. It’s a lingering injury that could limit him against the Dolphins, as it negatively affected his passing accuracy and pocket mobility late in last Sunday’s loss.
Thus, the Falcons need to take pressure off Penix by establishing the run, which will attack one of the Dolphins’ most significant weaknesses. According to Next Gen Stats, the Dolphins’ run defense ranks 27th in expected points added (EPA) per rush
The Falcons’ run game is a blueprint for future success
This could be a winning formula that carries over into future matchups. In Weeks 9 and 10, the Falcons will face the New England Patriots and the Indianapolis Colts in consecutive road games. Running against both of those teams could prove a tougher nut to crack than against Miami, given the Patriots’ defense ranks third in EPA per rush and the Colts’ 16th. Establishing the run against the Patriots clearly will be a challenge, but one Morris and the Falcons should welcome. If the name of the Falcons’ home city is going to be used as a verb to mean being the “more physical”, then the Falcons should earn their moniker.
That’s exactly what the Falcons did in their lone road win this season against the Minnesota Vikings. Coupled with an outperforming defense, that should be a successful recipe for the next few weeks as Penix heals from his injury. Yet, the passing game will remain instrumental in every game, as the NFL is a “passing league.” But taking some of the burden off Penix to carry this offense makes the most sense as he continues to develop, which includes making mistakes as a young quarterback.
The Falcons should pursue more physical identity
If the Falcons want to be taken seriously as a playoff contender, they have to start excelling at something, and the run game is their best option. Clearly, Morris intends to claim a specific identity by linking the Falcons’ and 49ers’ play styles. But the 49ers actually lived up to the billing this last week, and it’s time for the Falcons to do the same and own the trenches on Sunday.
Suppose the run-first offensive identity propels the Falcons to some wins over the next few weeks as Penix heals up. If so, it’ll do wonders for Morris, offensive coordinator Zac Robinson, and the fluctuating vibes around the team that hang on each week’s result. Leaning on Bijan, one of the best players in the NFL, is the right path forward for the Falcons. But incorporating backup running back Tyler Allgeier more into the mix is also necessary. There shouldn’t be any more games where he touches the ball less than five times, which has been the case in each of the Falcons’ last two losses.
The Falcons have all the tools they need to get the job done, and need Morris to motivate them to do it properly. That starts against Miami on Sunday.
