We are taking a brief break from the lab to have a very difficult conversation. It involves the two hardest things that every analyst/fan has to do. The first is a mea culpa. I cannot maintain an ounce of credibility unless I admit to an error in analysis. Earlier in the season, I advocated selling. I was wrong. However, it’s important to analyze why I was wrong. My assessment of the Astros as a team hasn’t changed fundamentally. They were going to play better baseball when they got healthier. So,
I wasn’t wrong on that count. I was wrong on the fact that no one in the AL West seems to want to win baseball games consistently.
That presents the Astros with a narrow opening to slide back into the postseason if everything breaks right. However, that gets us to the second difficult talking point and the bulk of our conversation here. It should be a conversation. Like any other fan, I have feelings and those feelings can sometimes color how we interpret the data. This is why this conversation is not taking place in the lab.
As a fan I love Lance McCullers Jr. and Cristian Javier. They were both integral in the 2022 World Series run and LMJ was integral in 2021 and 2017 as well. That love does not go away and it shouldn’t go away. Our memories are the most cherished things we have and we shouldn’t discard them in any circumstance. However, we have to have an uncomfortable conversation about both of them.
Memorial Day has always been my marker of where I start to take analysis more seriously. In every season there are players you plan on being important pieces to the season and for whatever reason those players don’t have it. It is not a coincidence that the rotation and bullpen have gotten better as those players have fallen by the wayside in favor of new players that do have the goods. Kai Wai Teng emerged. Peter Lambert emerged. Spencer Arrighetti (despite recent negative trends) emerged.
The Astros find themselves in the same position many other organizations have found themselves in. They committed major dollars to both pitchers. We can say those were mistakes, but we have to evaluate every decision based on the available evidence at the time. Those extensions made much more sense when they were offered and signed. If I have a general complaint about prevailing analysis it is that the results of decisions don’t always reflect the efficacy of those decisions. In other words, sometimes the wrong choice works out through good fortune. Sometimes the right decision doesn’t work out because of factors beyond your control.
Right or wrong, the focus of my analysis is always on the efficacy of decisions. We cannot control the future. We can only control the quality of our decisions. When evaluating executives, the more often they make quality decisions the more often they will experience success over time. The mistake a lot of organizations make is doubling down on bad decisions because they are afraid of admitting failure. Javier and McCullers are making considerable money. That money could entice management to defend them and give them another opportunity. That would be a mistake.
As much as I love Javier and McCullers, they cannot be anywhere close to a big league mound right now. McCullers is likely a few weeks away from officially being ready, but Javier is probably a week away from being pronounced ready. Yet, there is a difference between heing healthy and being good. Javier has been hit pretty hard in his rehab outings, so there is very little evidence to suggest that he would be an improvement in the rotation or the bullpen.
Javier is still relatively young. I’m not suggesting that he will never be a good pitcher again. I’m simply suggesting that he isn’t one right now. His velocity used to sit at 94 to 96 with excellent late action. His fastball is now sitting between 91 and 93 with less live action. A 93 MPH fastball is big league average. A guy with an average fastball who relies heavily on that fastball is going to be hit and hit hard. In the long-term, Javier could potentially work back to his old velocity. He could also revamp his secondary offerings to mitigate the effects of a diminishing fastball. Those are legitimate hopes. They are not horribly realistic in June. It is more likely a thing to be worked on in the offseason or on minor league mounds.
The same is true of McCullers except for the age factor. He is competitive enough and smart enough to get buy on certain days with what he has. No one should ever question his will to win or will to compete. Unfortunately, his stuff is just not good enough to win consistently. Given their veteran status, this becomes a difficult conversation. You cannot just stash them in Sugar Land without their agreement. They are proud professional athletes. They should believe in themselves and that belief likely works against such an arrangement.
Moving either back in the rotation sets the Astros back in a divisional race with no margin for error. The Astros have to put their best 26 guys out there if they have any hope of working back into the race completely. Simply put, McCullers and Javier are not one of the best 13 pitchers the Astros currently have. Like I said earlier, I love both guys. I absolutely 1000 percent want to be wrong here. I wouldn’t be much of an analyst if I ignored the facts in front of me though.
As much as I criticize Dana Brown and Joe Espada (criticisms I stand by), I do not envy their position and I don’t know what the exact right answer is. It is easy to be Pollyanna about everything and simply say don’t use them. Such a statement ignores the nuances of the situation and the reality that they are highly paid and they have a history of success. Like I said, this should be a conversation and I am open to the possibility of reading it the wrong way. What would you do with Javier and McCullers?
