We are just a couple of days away from Carolina basketball officially returning, and the buzz around the team is getting louder after two impressive exhibition games. It’s easy to write off these types of events as unimportant, but here’s the thing: nobody knew anything about this team prior to the BYU and Winston-Salem State games. Sure, people knew who the players were, where they came from, and what they did at the other schools that they played for. But we all know that what you hear and what you see
can be two different things. Please see Cade Tyson and Paxson Wojcik for reference.
Based off what we have seen, what we know, and what we could see and know down the road, it’s safe to say that this team has a lot of potential. Hubert Davis’ primary mission this summer was to create a bigger roster, and he receives an A+ for his efforts. One could also assume that he had a mission of recruiting players with a different mentality than last season, and we saw a bit of that during the two exhibition games. While last year’s team was a team that had a high ceiling and a low floor, this team will be a bit more interesting to evaluate. So, with that in mind, let’s discuss the best- and worst-case scenarios for the 2025-26 season.
Best-case Scenario
Let’s start with a bit of optimism: I mentioned a moment ago that this team is taller, but that is only part of the story. There is a decent amount of athleticism on this team, and Caleb Wilson stands out the most. It will be shocking if he isn’t a first-round pick in the NBA Draft — he is a really good defender, can get to the rim at will, and he is able to knock down shots within the arc at a regular clip. He also has Henri Veesaar and Jarin Stevenson around him, which makes for a ridiculous three-headed monster that most teams in the ACC may not be ready for. Looking at Stevenson, he is a capable three-point shooter that is extremely hard to block. When it comes to Veesaar, the former Arizona Wildcat is a towering player that can catch just about any pass into the paint to jam it home.
As far as the back court goes, Seth Trimble was really impressive during exhibition play, and it is clear that he is ready to take on the leadership role for this team. Kyan Evans has been solid at the point guard position, but admittedly he’s been the least impressive player in the starting lineup so far. What is important to point out, though, is that least impressive isn’t a bad thing — one of the issues that Elliot Cadeau had last year was turnovers, and Evans only had two turnovers in exhibition play. While this back court is solid as it is, things could potentially improve that much more once Luka Bogavac is cleared to play by the university. He is a guy that is considered to be a deadly three-point shooter, and he could be what propels this team from a good team to an excellent one.
Given the fact that all but three players are new to the program, the Heels have to quickly gel if they want to reach their full potential. Thankfully this team doesn’t have a mindset issue, though — these guys all seem hungry to win, and the overall vibes seem a lot different than last season. If UNC can put it all together this year, their ceiling is a trip to the Final Four. Realistically, making it to the second weekend of the NCAA Tournament is a safe bet, but there’s definitely a possibility that they could be one of the last four teams standing by the time everything is said and done. It’s just hard to imagine a national title being in their future. One can dream, though.
Best-Case Scenario: ACC regular season champions, runner-up in the ACC Tournament, and a trip to the Final Four
Worst-Case Scenario
So, what if all of this doesn’t work? What does that look like? The best thing that Hubert Davis did for himself is that he recruited some highly competitive guys that have much more size than the group last year, so it does give them a larger margin of error. With how critical people have been of Hubert Davis’ coaching ability, I’m sure there are games that he could coach poorly and the team could still win somehow. How many games they could win in that scenario is a whole other question, though.
Here’s what failure looks like to me: Luka Bogavac turns out to be a dud as a shooter, there are one or two really unfortunate injuries, and defensively everything falls apart once competition gets serious. It’s enough to make me think about the Cole Anthony season and how everything fell apart during that season, but would be different because there’s more talent on this team than there was on that one. I do think that ACC play will give this team a bit of grace as well, but Kansas, Kentucky, and Duke will not. And what matters the most in this current iteration of college basketball? NET rankings. Imagine a world where the Heels have to scratch and claw for a Quad 1 win late in the regular season. Again. Yes, it scares me too.
It is hard to imagine that this team will not make the NCAA Tournament, but in a worst-case scenario I can see it being a really annoying process getting there. UNC may have to sweat through more Joe Lunardi projections, and while they hear their name called in the Selection Show, we will all be treated to more heated conversations about how they shouldn’t have made it. This, along with a performance in the ACC that involves two losses to Duke and a really annoying loss to NC State, would probably be enough for everyone to call for Hubert Davis to be fired.
Worst-Case Scenario: 4th place in the ACC, a loss in the semifinals of the ACC Tournament, and a Round of 32 loss in the NCAA Tournament
