Though the title of this article was true days, even weeks ago, with the 3-1 victory of the Texas Rangers over the New York Mets Thursday afternoon, the Seattle Mariners have officially been eliminated from the 2026 postseason race.
The shockingly disappointing club will finish 3rd in the American League West, failing to defend their division title from a year ago, ceding their crown to one of the pretenders from Texas. 74-84 at the moment, Seattle would need to win out to match their second-worst
full-season record in the Jerry Dipoto era, 2017’s 78-84 mark. This will be the club’s fourth losing record (albeit one in just 60 games in 2020) against seven winning seasons in his tenure, breaking a franchise-record five-year streak above .500. The club’s only consecutive seasons of playoff appearance will remain 2000 and 2001.
Unlike most of their recent seasons, Seattle simply could not find a second gear late in the season, condemning them to watch what will likely be the first division won by a sub-.500 team in MLB history. They struggled with consistency all season long, flailing wildly on the road to a .407 winning percentage that sunk them despite a winning record at T-Mobile Park. They conspired for the worst defense in the majors by Outs Above Average and Fielding Run Value, and arguably the worst in the last decade. You probably didn’t need advanced metrics to gauge that so much as willpower not to gouge your eyes out at times, but it’s nice to see it validated. Though he continued to bring stability to the lineup when healthy, J.P. Crawford’s craterous shortstop defense pressed Seattle in several directions, none of which found fertile ground, although Crawford’s glovework at third base was more plausible. That, paired with a rogue’s gallery of rotating infielders, poor options in both outfield corners, and a backslide in range from Julio Rodríguez in center made for a season full of balls simply finding grass when they should not.
It set the pitching staff up for tough sledding, but they scattered their own caltrops as well. The entire starting rotation struggled intermittently, with health, a six-man rotation, and just downright ineffectiveness that was at times baffling to unravel. For the first time since 2021, Seattle’s pitching staff will finish with an ERA below league-average, despite the massive benefit received from playing in the anti-Coors Field of MLB half the year. After years of whipping up quality bullpen arms from the ether, the unit flagged all season despite throwing by far the fewest innings of any pen in MLB. Conversely, an M’s rotation often able to lean on extra days of rest, but tasked to work deeper accordingly, labored and crumbled, playing a major role in their road woes.
Offensively, Seattle had moments of competency, but even then became the poster children of cluster luck and its fickle nature. Cal Raleigh nursed injuries in silence and struggle before hitting the IL, with rookie Colt Emerson following suit. Josh Naylor and Rob Refsnyder seemed to do the same, limping to substandard seasons. Most depth and utility options struggled to fill in effectively, Leo Rivas, Luke Raley, Victor Robles, Weston Wilson, Connor Joe, Miles Mastrobuoni, Brock Rodden, Patrick Wisdom, and co. put up dreadful numbers and/or could not remain healthy enough to contribute effectively. While impactful when healthy, Brendan Donovan managed only 39 games in his first season outside St. Louis.
The outfield was the lone area of positivity for the M’s. Julio Rodríguez authored a disappointing year, but was a quality contributor in his down season in a way that was weatherable with a roster less craterous. Another 20-20 season and around 3 wins above replacement is solid, but put pressure on the rest of the club that was more brittle than expected. Dominic Canzone maintained his improvements from 2025, earning full-time play and hitting himself into the heart of the order.
And then, Randy Arozarena. The star of a star-crossed club. The best left fielder in franchise history will see his tenure in Seattle come to an end in all likelihood this weekend. His .279/.380/.479 line entering the final four games came with a 151 wRC+, another 25-25 campaign, and double the fWAR (5.3) of any other Mariners position player except Julio. The leadoff man for the better part of the year, if one player could be relied upon to arrive prepared, put up a competent battle at the plate, and add something to the club’s chances of victory this year, it was their quixotic left fielder. Any vision of bouncing back in 2026 is marred by the loss of their best player, and the difficulties the M’s had in adding talent this year.
No new Mariner in 2026 played in over 40 games and managed a positive fWAR. If you extend the same metric to include pitchers, it is technically false as José A. Ferrer mustered 0.1 fWAR in 72 games and 64.1 IP. If you drop it to 29 games you can acknowledge Cooper Criswell and Jhonny Pereda, scraping in a few ticks above zero. It was a dismal showing for offseason and midseason additions alike, although since a disastrous first outing Seranthony Dominguez has seemed much closer to a viable bullpen arm.
That also doesn’t quite fairly appraise the youth of the roster. Cole Young put up a clear step-forward season in his age-22 campaign, mustering a league-average bat and clear positive strides on defense. There’s more in the tank for the now-23 year old, and his compatriots in the early 20s have shown promise late, albeit with halting opportunities. Lazaro Montes has shown off his titanic power. Michael Arroyo has been immediately impactful with the bat in highly sporadic playing time. To fend off a repeat disappointment, the M’s will need them, and their largely-under-30 core to remember the frustration of this season as fuel for better things to come.
But this year will cost manager Dan Wilson his job, and maybe more. It is the most disappointing performance by a Mariners team relative to (reasonable) expectations in the franchise’s history. Next year must be better.
