I’m going to be slightly dramatic here for a second. I know that’s not my role and Rock M was not founded as a pit of overreactions so I know this is slightly out of place.
But I’m going to say it anyway:
Missouri’s championship-related goals died on the field when Beau Pribula was hit on 4th-and-goal in the 3rd quarter.
Look: I think everyone got a little starry eyed when Ahmad Hardy was able to rack up multi 100-yard rushing games in the first five weeks, including against kansas and South Carolina.
And I think Beau Pribula’s consecutive completions record, plus his first few starts, led a lot of the fan base to believe that he was a clear cut upgrade over Brady Cook, to the point that Mizzou could actually find a spot in the Playoff.
But if the last two weeks of Mizzou football games didn’t bring our collective back to reality than Saturday’s performance absolutely should have: our favorite football Tigers are not going to be contending for the Playoff or SEC Championship in 2025.
And here’s where I get back to form because, you know what? THAT’S OK.
No, there’s not a single coach or program that heads into any season with a “hey, you know what? this is just a bridge year so lets win as many games and have fun as we build to something bigger!”. That’s never a realistic sentiment, and certainly not the case in the NIL/portal era. You add to your roster so that you win now. Period.
But given the vast number of transfers to Mizzou’s offense – many of whom are starters right now – there was always the realistic outcome of this offense being an albatross to the defense’s efforts and this ending up being an 8-9 win campaign while the offense acclimates and the defense does enough to let the offense capitalize.
And while I think this team is much better than “just try to get to 8 wins!”, the Alabama and Auburn games reinforced my previous opinion that this is great offense – not elite – and that it needed max effort from every piece to scratch out 8+ wins.
And, as good as Zollers looked in relief of Pribula, he’s not going to be a seamless replacement for Beau. If he was, it would have been a three-man race for quarterback at the beginning of the year. And Zollers looked the way he did against a defense with very little tape on him and playing off coverage to protect a lead; that’s not going to be the case going forward.
Zollers will be good but relying on a freshman to win games for an offense that has been offering diminishing returns as it grinds through the teeth of the SEC is a losing proposition. Even with the report that Pribula might not miss the entire season…do you want a guy whose strengths require mobility to go out there with torn ligaments? My vote would be a polite “no”.
So, no, 2025 will not end with Missouri lofting an SEC Championship trophy or celebrating a Playoff game in their home stadium, but enough of this corps comes back next year (NIL negotiations withstanding) that the Tigers can get a head start on acclimating their new quarterback and asserting the rest of the pieces to finish strong and gear up for a potentially awesome 2026.
And, oh yeah, you can also beat the rest of the teams on the schedule and prove me wrong. I’d love for that to happen as well!
Here’s the advanced box score
Missouri’s postgame win expectancy in this game was 30% which, frankly, shocked me. The Tigers were more efficient, had better starting field position, were more havoc-y, and generated more scoring opportunities. But, I’ll let Bill C handle the explanation for me since he’s better at this stuff anyway:
When Missouri Has The Ball
Kevin Coleman deserved this win and his efforts damn-near gave Mizzou that chance. Otherwise, a breakout Jude James performance was welcome (and needed) since the rest of the receivers were, essentially, a lost effort from a target-benefit analysis. Marquis Johnson continues to pout at a consistently elite level.
And it was nice to see the ground game get a stronger effort than what we had seen the past two weeks! Kirby Moore was fairly balance in the run/pass ratios in the first half before leaning heavier on the run in the 3rd quarter before having to go full pass-whacky mode on the final drive. But Hardy seemed like his old self again and Jamal Roberts added some good punishers as well.
Run The Dang Ball
Goal: 44% success rate on the ground.
Actual: 42.5% success rate through the air.
Winner: Vanderbilt
Maintain The Dang Possession
Goal: 50% success rate on 3rd-downs.
Actual: 31.2% success rate on 3rd-downs.
Winner: Vanderbilt
Finish Your Dang Drives
Goal: At least 5 scoring opportunities created and at least 5.4 points per scoring opportunity (27 points)
Actual: 6 scoring opportunities created, 1.7 (!!!!!!!) points per scoring opportunity (10 points)
Winner: Vanderbilt
When Vanderbilt Has The Ball
Pavia had a terrible day. Stowers was clutch but quiet. The ground game had that one run but, strip that out, and the Commodores ran 22 times for 64 yards. Even when keeping that 80-yarder in, they managed an awful 21% success rate on the ground and 38% success rate through the air, which is just an awful performance all-around. Mizzou’s defense was disruptive and effective and did enough to win without a doubt.
HAVOC
Goal: 32% pressure rate and 4 sacks.
Actual: 38% pressure rate (8 pressures) and 2 sacks.
Winner: Push
Turn Them Over
Goal: +1 turnover margin
Actual: +0 turnover margin
Winner: Vanderbilt
The Little Things
I can’t get over how bad Missouri’s points per scoring opportunity was. I figured they’d have five chances but they did enough to generate 6! In 10 possessions! And average ONE POINT F***ING SEVEN POINTS PER OPPORTUNITY.
If Robby Meyer makes that kick they’re still down 4 during that last drive. If he makes two kicks they’re still down 1 at the end of the game but at least a field goal could win it.
On the demerit front, I know Eli Drinkwitz mentioned Mizzou was on the “wrong side” of some calls that were neither good nor bad. Ok. But Vandy was called for more penalties. If you want to isolate Tollison’s tripping or Hall’s PI, sure, I’m with you on that one. But I don’t think the penalties are where the margins were lost here.
As far as I see it, these were the miscues that actually cost Mizzou the game:
- Giudice’s tripping the 2nd quarter. That one was dumb, it didn’t even effect the play at all, and he clearly kicked his legs up to impede the defender. That led to a field goal when you could have had a 1st-down at the 1-yard line.
- The goal-to-go sequence in the 3rd quarter that cost Pribula his ankle. The bootleg to the short side of the field to Norfleet is Kirby Moore’s binky but it’s soiled goods at this point; it rarely works and, when it does, it goes for like three fucking yards. Norfleet was the only read there and he was covered and the lost play lead to one fewer realistic chance to score. Which meant you had to call the Brady-Cook-fake-pitch-up-the-middle play. That sequence lead to 0 points and a wheelchair for your starting QB.
- The doinked field goal in the 3rd quarter. Self explanatory.
- The fumbled mesh in the 4th quarter. DESPITE ALL THAT HAPPENED ABOVE Mizzou was in a position to do what they like to do and just drain the clock and finish with points but, instead, Vandy got the ball in plus territory and finished with 7.
Those are the things I’d complain about, Coach.
Extra Points
Missouri was more efficient, Vanderbilt was more explosive. That 14% in the 3rd quarter? Yeah. Vandy ran 7 plays there and had one successful play. However, that one successful play was the 80-yard touchdown run.
Missouri managed to be effective at all four downs while Vandy logged 73% of their total yards on 1st-down. That’s a good stat to point to as to how well Corey Batoon was able to limit Pavia’s danger.
And here you see the effectiveness of that 80-yard run in the 3rd quarter. Vandy couldn’t do much without it but that, plus the short field in the 4th, was just enough to win.
This chart will be expanding much faster with Zollers taking the snaps now, but Hardy remains our 1st-down generating champion. Interesting note: in 1.5 quarters of play, Zollers throwing to Coleman has already generated 3 1st downs, tied for 10th on the team. I think a wee baby quarterback is going to be looking for his season slot receiver A TON going forward, as well as handing it off to his stud running backs.
Conclusion
The ultimate goals are most likely removed but there’s still plenty to prove and games to be won and fun to be had. The back stretch of this schedule is still brutal, especially with elite Texas A&M and Oklahoma defenses licking their chops over a freshman quarterback taking snaps. Arkansas and Mississippi State are going to be ready to put up a fight, as well. It’s going to be a rough stretch as it always is, but I’m excited to see Mizzou’s future quarterback in extended action and see how strong the Drinkwitz culture can close out.
