After the embarrassing loss to Oklahoma, Texas needs to fix several things to keep the wheels from falling off in the back half of the year. If you had to pick one improvement to make that would have the biggest impact, what would it be?
Daniel Seahorn (@DanielSeahorn) — Continuity and clarity on the offensive identity. Steve Sarkisian needs to figure out what his offense is actually good at and needs to start forming his game scripts around that. He needs to do a better job of getting his quarterback’s confidence up early in the game so that he is thinking less and more playing. Get the ball out of his hands, and mix in some tendency breakers so that defenses can’t tee off against the run, having some pressure beaters via the quick
passing game or screens like we saw when Quinn Ewers was under center. Sarkisian got a lot of things dropped into his offense over the offseason, and so far they are not playing up to their potential. If he is going to be stubborn about remaining the playcaller, then he needs to do a much better job of counterpunching opposing defenses.
Jacob Neidg (@jneidig_2) — Reducing the number of three-and-outs seems as though it would have a relatively large impact on the overall performance of the offense. When the offense immediately returns the ball to the opposing team and fails to establish a rhythm, you give underdogs hope and quality teams too many chances. A better running game or improved play from Arch might be upstream from reducing the number of three-and-outs, but I think that number speaks to total failures of the offense.
Wescott Eberts (@SBN_Wescott) — The easiest improvement is one that the staff can actually control – moving away from running so much 12 personnel with tight ends who aren’t making an impact on the field, spreading it out more, and allowing Arch Manning to throw more frequent quick passes to get the ball out of his hands and reduce the amount of processing that he has to do after the snap.
Gerald Goodridge (@ghgoodridge) — This all comes back to the need for additional offensive voices in the room, but building a game plan around what the team is actually good at vs. what Steve Sarkisian thinks it should be. Whether it’s the personnel packages, the pace and approach, or simply just what he’s asking players to do, it feels like he is trying to fit square pegs into round holes. Increasing the tempo, letting Arch use his legs, and realizing that your tight ends are probably not difference-makers would make a massive difference.
Quarterback Arch Manning has continued to struggle, throwing two interceptions that directly cost Texas 10 points, and continues to struggle with consistency. How much of this falls on Manning and how much falls on coaching?
Daniel — It’s a mixture of both. I just harped on it during my first response, but Sark needs to get the kid out of his head by getting him into a rhythm early and by putting more emphasis on the quick passing game that gets the ball out of Arch’s hands. Everything within this offense doesn’t need to be a home run, and it feels like 85 percent of the offense is predicated on long developing routes deep down the field. The longer Arch has to wait with the ball in his hands, the more likely bad things are to happen. Parse that down and start just taking what the defense is giving you instead of constantly big-play hunting.
Jacob — It seems like Sark, like last year, has approached the season with a specific offense in mind, regardless of whether it suits Manning or the current personnel. This, in turn, has made it tough for Manning in particular to just play. So, I think it falls a little bit on both of them. I’d also shine some light on other members of the coaching staff beyond Sarkisian. Kyle Flood has led poor offensive lines the last two years.
Wescott — A certain amount of it has to fall on Manning because he’s been in this system for four years and should have a higher baseline of play. But there’s more blame to put on the coaching staff because they went all in on Manning and assembled the offense around him. I think it’s really questionable whether they are putting him in the best position to succeed, and that includes the continued reticence by Steve Sarkisian to use the quarterback run game. It was a difference maker late last season when Manning was playing his best football, and it’s hard to see him return to that level of play without his legs having an impact on games.
Gerald – While I do think there is some blame to place on a fourth-year quarterback who has struggled to grow and develop his skill set, much like Sark said following the loss – history is a predictor of future results. A coaching staff with three QB coaches now has seen two former No. 1 quarterbacks come to Austin and fail to reach their potential. And that is not a shot at Quinn Ewers, because I think most people would kill for QE’s production right now, but I think it’s safe to say he didn’t reach the lofty ceiling he came to Austin with. And now, as we see Arch clearly over-processing, struggling to make downfield reads, but flashing when he is allowed to run uptempo and no-huddle, it’s hard for me not to blame the coaching.
Turning the page to Florida, the Gators were one of the hottest teams in the country in to start the year, led by Jadan Baugh and the ground game. In the last two games, Baugh has been kept in check, and the Florida offense sputtered. How can Texas keep him in check on Saturday?
Daniel — Rally to the football and tackle well. Baugh is one of the toughest backs in the country to get on the ground, and despite his size, he is incredibly agile and shifty. Put as many hats on him as you can when he touches the ball, and arrive at him in control. Removing him from the game won’t be easy, but the last couple of games have shown he can be limited, despite the Gator offense having plenty of firepower and a good play caller in Buster Faulker.
Jacob — One of the Gators’ most dynamic wideouts missed the last two games, and the offense struggled. If he returns, the Florida offense is significantly harder to stop. I think Texas can keep Baugh in check if the secondary can win in man coverage on the back end and let the fellas up front focus on the run game. Extra hats around the line of scrimmage are mandatory against Baugh, so if you can do that, thanks to the secondary holding it down, I like the chances.
Wescott – If there is anything that the last two teams were doing schematically to slow Baugh down, I’m sure defensive coordinator Will Muschamp has seen that on film and will include it in his defensive game plan. Since it’s possible that starting quarterback Aaron Philo won’t be available, Texas could have more resources to devote to slowing down Baugh. Since Baugh is so good at making people miss, one of the biggest keys to limiting his impact is to get players around the football because one player often isn’t enough to get him to the ground.
Gerald — Texas has the personnel and scheme to face off well against a team that will likely run a lot to mask its quarterback deficiencies. Big bodies in the middle can occupy multiple blockers, leaving the linebackers free to read and fill their run fits. We saw one blown assignment from the linebackers against Oklahoma lead to a big gain, so I would be shocked if it wasn’t a point of emphasis during the week.
What do you need to see from Texas against Florida to feel more comfortable heading into the back half of the year?
Daniel — Florida’s defense has conceded a bunch of points over the past couple of weeks. If the Texas offense can take advantage of their warts, I will feel better about the direction of things after what transpired in Dallas. If they can’t move the ball and sustain drives after what South Carolina and Mizzou were able to do, then it’s going to be more validation of a very discouraging sign about the offense.
Jacob — Some changes in the offensive philosophy would probably make me most comfortable. The loss to Oklahoma didn’t reveal anything new; mistakes and poor execution finally caught up to the Longhorns. Meaning, a one-game improvement in a specific aspect of the game is unlikely to be sustained given the six-game track record without a fundamental shift in how Texas attacks opposing teams. It’d be great to see a more adaptable play-calling variety.
Wescott – Florida has given up a couple long running plays this season, but overall, the team weakness has been on the back end, so I want to see Arch Manning and his wide receivers have success creating explosive plays without Sarkisian spamming deep balls at a low rate of efficiency.
Gerald — This has to be a get-right game for the Texas offense, or it won’t happen this year. Florida’s defense has been chopped up through the start of the year, so if Sark and Arch can’t figure it out against a defense that gives up an average of 6.79 yards per play, we’ll need to settle in for a frustrating close to the year.
FanDuel has Texas as a 10.5-point favorite as they return to Austin. Does Texas get back in the win column?
Daniel (4-1/2-3 ATS) — 10.5 is a big number in my book. Coming into today, I was ready to pick Florida outright based on what I saw this past weekend in Dallas. A report came out today that Florida might be down to QB2 on Saturday, so that has changed the math for me a bit. Will Muschamp’s defense is still plenty good and it will put a lot of pressure on a young, inexperienced signal caller if Aaron Philo is out. Give me Texas winning, but not covering in this one. Texas 27 Florida 20
Jacob (4-1/3-2 ATS) — The Longhorn offense should be able to move the ball against this defense. Aside from a few splashy plays here and there, the Gator defense has struggled in SEC play. If Brown and Philo both play, their offense can be dangerous, but I think Texas comes out pissed off and out-physicals Florida. Texas 34 Florida 21
Wescott (3-2/2-3 ATS) – Yeah, Texas gets back into the win column and covers the spread because the offense finds the explosiveness it’s been looking for and the defense continues to play at a high level. Texas 31, Florida 20
Gerald (4-1/2-3 ATS) — Regardless of who plays at quarterback, I think the Texas defense is probably good enough to hold them to two scores and, I might regret saying this, but I think the Texas offense can get itself right in this one. Texas 28, Florida 14.
