Everton managing to put together consecutive victories for the first time since early December, ending a six-game winless run at Hill Dickinson Stadium by beating an admittedly pretty hapless Burnley, has put the club’s seesaw season back in the ascendancy. Talk of Europe abounds, but we’ve been here several times already this term and I’ve already written about how I’m not getting pulled back in again, to quote Michael Corleone — stealing a good line from a bad film.
The Blues return from a short
spell of warm weather training and head to the capital for Saturday’s early evening (or late afternoon, take your pick) game with league leaders Arsenal, the start of what’s – on paper at least – a rough four-game stretch.
Form
After spending modestly and finishing as league runners-up again last season, the Gunners invested heavily in the squad over the summer, spending a net €283m in search of title glory. Arriving were major signings in midfielder Martín Zubimendi (€70m, Real Sociedad), attacking midfielder Eberechi Eze (€69.3m, Crystal Palace), striker Viktor Gyökeres (€66.9m, Sporting CP), winger Noni Madueke (€56m, Chelsea), defenders Piero Hincapié (loan with €52m obligation, Bayer Leverkusen) , along with Cristhian Mosquera (€15m, Valencia), and midfielder Christian Nørgaard (free, Brentford).
Departing North London were a slew of veterans and nearly-men, such as Jorginho (free, Flamengo), Thomas Partey (free, Villarreal), Kiernan Tierney (free, Celtic), Oleksandr Zinchenko (loan, Nottingham Forest; subsequently €1.5m, Ajax), Takehiro Tomiyasu (released), Fábio Vieira (loan, Hamburg), Nuno Tavares (€6m, Lazio), Jakub Kiwior (loan, Porto), Albert Sambi Lokonga (€0.3m, Hamburg) and Reiss Nelson (loan, Brentford).
What a campaign it’s been so far for Mikel Arteta and his team. They sit in pole position at the top of the league table — seven points clear of old nemesis Pep Guardiola’s Manchester City, having played a game more. In 47 matches across all competitions, they’ve won 36 and lost just three: all in the Premier League, away losses to Liverpool back in August and Aston Villa in December, and a first home reverse of the season inflicted by Manchester United in late January. However, they’ve won nothing as yet, with everything still left to play for.
Arsenal will be laser-focused on Everton at the weekend, as they cannot leave the door open even a crack for City, given how they’ve been hauled down by the serial title-winners in the past, but they have major games coming up. On Tuesday they host Leverkusen in the Champions League Round of 16 – tied 1-1 after the first leg in Germany – followed by the EFL Cup final against City, and an FA Cup Quarter-final at Southampton.
Team Assessment
Arteta has consistently used a 4-3-3 formation for the bulk of the season, though recently switched to 4-2-3-1. Their record at the Emirates Stadium is imperious, having won eleven in the league, against that lone, shock loss to Michael Carrick’s United. Arsenal have scored 59 goals (from an xG of 57.5), many from set-piece situations (19), conceding just 22 (xGA of 25.2). Today’s hosts control 56.6% of possession, favouring a short-passing style (completing 84.2%, with only 8.9% going long). They are the mirror image of Everton, in that they focus much of their play down the right side.
In goal is the outstanding David Raya — whose save rate of 68.1% actually only ranks midtable. The Arsenal defence has been brilliant all campaign, anchored in the centre by one-time Blues target Gabriel, alongside the excellent William Saliba. After covering at centre half for the first half of the campaign, Hincapié has taken advantage of an injury to Riccardo Calafiori to nail down the starting left back berth, whilst Jurriën Timber is proving an elite level performer on the right.
World-class all-round midfielder Declan Rice has formed a brilliant partnership with the more defensive-minded Zubimendi, providing balance in the centre of the park. The England man is Arsenal’s main provider of corner kicks also. It’s been less settled in front of this duo, with club captain Martin Ødegaard enduring an injury-hit campaign, though he may be available today, subject to a late call. Eze has started the last four games in the advanced midfield position, in the recently-preferred 4-2-3-1.
On the right flank is Bukayo Saka, scorer of six league goals, and who deputizes for Ødegaard as captain. The rapid Madueke has provided good cover this term, when required. Arteta has alternated between Gabriel Martinelli and Leandro Trossard on the left, with the former in goalscoring form in the UCL, but the Belgian veteran preferred for the league. Trossard is a late call for the game, with Martinelli starting the last two in his stead. Big-money signing Gyökeres provides a physical presence up front. The Swede has attracted criticism, but has 15 goals in all competitions and has netted five in his last seven league appearances.
Prediction
In terms of points per game, Everton rank as the fourth-best away side this season, so will travel to North London with more optimism than has been the case for many years. This road framework, which has underpinned the entire campaign, is based on being difficult to score against (14 goals conceded, the second-lowest in the division), because the club’s 16 goals scored puts them down in the bottom third. However, the Gunners have lost just once at the Emirates during the entire campaign, boasting the best defence (nine conceded) and the second-best attack (33 scored), so this will be an exceedingly tough game for the visitors.
Arteta has continued to move further away from the Pep-clone tactics of his earlier years at Arsenal, with a greater emphasis on defensive solidity, physicality and the exploitation of set-pieces, including plenty of selective timewasting. In some ways, this could be seen as a natural progression of the über-controlling Guardiola philosophy, the primary object of which is to starve the opposition of the ball, an essentially defensive approach masked by dominating, intricate play in the opponent’s half. Deal-ball situations give full control, allowing plenty of micromanagement, a lot of which has bordered on pushing the boundaries of what the officials will allow.
David Moyes suggested that Jarrad Branthwaite should be available this evening, without confirming that the key defender had suffered an injury — but which didn’t really clear up the player not travelling with the group to the Algarve last week. If he isn’t ready, then the only change in the Toffees side will be the inclusion of Michael Keane. I don’t see Moyes making any voluntary alterations to the starting lineup, though I’d like him to turn to his bench more often than is his want.
Moyes was happy with the team’s performance in losing 1-0 at home to the Gunners (via a penalty for Jake O’Brien’s absurd handball), especially with PGMOL admitting afterwards that Everton should’ve been awarded a spot-kick themselves. I can imagine a near-identical setup today, with the visitors defending in a low block, forcing Arsenal wide and dealing with innumerable crosses. This may frustrate the hosts, but will lead to the Blues giving up a lot of corners and free kicks, so set-piece defending will have to be flawless. I think absorbing this much pressure for the entire game, with little chance of counterattacking, will prove a major problem, resulting in a comfortable home victory.
Scoreline: Arsenal 2-0 Everton
Statistics provided courtesy of transfermarkt.com, footystats.org and fbref.com
