Following the sweep of the LA Kings, a week off gave pause and a chance to look ahead at the big picture of the ultimate goal of hoisting the Stanley Cup in June. Here is where the Colorado Avalanche currently stand heading into their second round match with the Minnesota Wild, and what may be an obstacle in the way of achieving that goal.
5 reasons why Colorado won’t win the Stanley Cup
1) Star Player Production: It is doubtful Colorado’s top players are going to be kept off the score sheet as we go forward like they were in the beginning of the Kings
series. That being said, if they are unable to get going against their opponents going forward, it’s going to get tougher to stay in close games like they were able to do against the Kings. It’s not a secret that while LA certainly has some offensively skilled players, they did not have the horses to get into a track meet with the Avs, if it came down to that. Going forward, the remaining teams in the Western Conference are better equipped to do that if they have to, and if Colorado’s top players aren’t going, it’s going to be difficult to win track-meet games if you happen to get into one.
2) The Power Play: This is a worst-case scenario, but one worth talking about regardless. Colorado is going to be seeing another really good goaltender in Minnesota’s Jesper Wallstedt. Hypothetically, if their 5v5 scoring comes down, and their power play is not converting, that’s going to be an extremely difficult uphill battle for the Avs to keep up with the Wild, who are a team that is more offensively skilled than the Kings. Going 1-for-11 again on the man advantage isn’t going to cut it when the stakes get higher.
3) Blueline Health: Significant injuries will derail any contender but on the back end in particular the Avalanche are vulnerable. Josh Manson’s Game 3 upper-body injury was already a setback for an undetermined length and any additional issues within the group might become detrimental. This defensive core isn’t what it was in 2022 and the pair of Cale Makar and Devon Toews are already overworked, there isn’t a lot of cushion when it comes to this group on the back end.
4) The Second Line: While a lot of big names were held off the scoresheet as mentioned above, the greater concern should be the performance of the second line in the Kings series, in particular the play of Brock Nelson and Valeri Nichushkin. They only combined for nine shots on goal and for one point of production which was from Nelson on his empty net goal in Game 3. Lost in Colorado’s overall analytic success was these two lagging behind with Nichushkin posting a 46.78% share of the expected goals and Nelson at 40.15%. Solidifying a third part of the trio should help in the long run but this line can’t become vulnerable to matchup exploitation as we get deeper into the playoffs.
5) Expectations and Momentum: It’s very difficult to lead the league wire-to-wire, earn the Presidents’ Trophy for best regular season record and then go on to win the Stanley Cup. There’s a reason why most Presidents’ Trophy winner falter before winning it all and that’s the weight of expectations but also the pressure of maintaining momentum over a long stretch of time. This Avalanche team had their best stretch early on, specifically going 11-0-2 in the month of November. Late season doldrums, injuries and the lengthy Olympic break led to some lulls in the second half. The first round sweep surely is a help to get back on track but there won’t be much margin for error to regain peak form.
5 reasons why Colorado will win the Stanley Cup
1) Depth Contributions: Colorado’s bottom six depth was arguably a big reason why they were able to sweep the LA Kings. In the first two games of that series, especially, your top players were struggling to get going a bit, and it was players like Logan O’Connor and Nic Roy who stepped up and scored some big-time goals to help the Avs take a 2-0 series lead into LA. You don’t expect your third and fourth-line players to score a goal every single night, of course, but if they can continue to step up in moments when your top guys might be struggling for whatever reason, Colorado will be in good shape as they continue in these playoffs.
2) The Power Play: Is it cheating to put this reason in both categories? Maybe, but I’m going to do it anyway. At the end of the first round series, Colorado was finally able to break through and score on the power play in game four. The power play actually looked pretty good and like it was trending in the right direction before that game as well. But as we’ve talked about at length, Kings’ netminder Anton Forsberg was playing extremely well and was a massive reason why Colorado didn’t convert before game four, or score a lot across the series on the whole, for that matter. If the Avs can build on those positive power play results at the end of the series and convert more, it’s going to be tough for other teams to keep up with them on the scoring front throughout these playoffs.
3) 5v5 Production: Colorado has shown that it can certainly produce effectively at 5v5, and having that capability is extremely valuable, and we just saw in another series how valuable it was. In the Dallas vs. Minnesota series, Dallas could not score a 5v5 goal for the life of them for the vast majority of that series, and while their power play was red hot and essentially guaranteed them a goal every time they had the man-advantage, it didn’t matter because the Wild could score 5v5, and Dallas couldn’t match them in that play, and it became such a problem that you could argue that lack of 5v5 scoring cost them the series, in a way. Again, Colorado has shown they can score at 5v5 effectively with the best forward and defenseman left in the tournament at their disposal is one reason why they’re going to be in good shape going into these later rounds.
4) Goaltending: Scott Wedgewood deserves his flowers for only letting in five goals during the entire four-game Kings series along with sparkling .950 save percentage. He will certainly get tested a lot more moving forward but one of the pillars of a Stanley Cup champion is strength in net and Wedgewood is proving the organization right for putting faith in him to finally become the starter for this Avalanche squad. Mackenzie Blackwood also will likely have a chance to factor in and help this team go far in his own right. That one-two punch is an advantage Colorado has especially with some of the questions around the league in net among some teams still remaining.
5) Luck of the Draw: Make no mistake, each round will become more difficult just based on the rising stakes and success of each subsequent opponent but we can’t ignore the fact that the playoff bracket is starting to shake out in Colorado’s favor. It’s been a down year for previous powerhouses, Dallas bowed out early, the Pacific division can’t stop a puck and the Eastern conference has been mediocre all year. Defeating Minnesota will be a tough task but there might never be a clearer path for the Avs to the Stanley Cup than in this year’s tournament.
