Here we go, folks: I’m about to write a thousand words about how the Orioles should sign Kyle Tucker.
Yes, yes, I do understand that there’s one critical flaw in that premise, and it is this: the Orioles are definitely not going to sign Kyle Tucker.
The 28-year-old outfielder is the consensus #1-ranked free agent in baseball this offseason. MLB Trade Rumors projects Tucker to sign an 11-year, $400 million deal, which would rank among the largest in major league history. The biggest contract the Orioles
have ever given a free agent in the Mike Elias era is the $49.5 million they spent (unwisely) on Tyler O’Neill last winter.
Tucker, a four-time All-Star who’s been one of the most productive hitters in baseball since his debut in 2018, will have his share of suitors, including teams that have historically been much more prolific spenders than the Orioles. The Dodgers are said to be interested in Tucker. The Yankees, too. The Blue Jays, who were two outs away from a championship, are likely in the mix.
So, yeah. Tucker signing with the Orioles is not going to happen.
But — hear me out here — wouldn’t it be awesome if it did?
No single free agent would make a more significant impact for the Orioles than Tucker, the kind of hitter whose presence can change the entire complexion of a lineup. The 2025 Orioles, among their many faults, never could seem to get their offense to click. Underperformance plagued many of their young hitters, and the batting order lacked that one fearsome slugger who could put runs on the board even when the rest of the team was struggling. Even Gunnar Henderson couldn’t carry that load by himself.
That’s where Tucker comes in. The left-handed masher was a lineup cornerstone for the Houston Astros during their recent stretch of perennial American League dominance. He began his breakout during the pandemic-shortened 2020 season and followed it up with three outstanding years, crushing 89 homers and posting an .870 OPS from 2021-23. He received AL MVP votes each season, placing as high as fifth in 2023. He was on pace to obliterate his previous career bests in 2024, collecting 19 dingers and a .979 OPS in his first 60 games, before a leg fracture cost him three months of the season.
The Astros, not wanting to risk losing Tucker in free agency after 2025, sent him to the Cubs in a blockbuster trade prior to the season. His one year in the Windy City was not without struggles, as Tucker went through a month-and-a-half power outage at the plate during the summer. The Cubs later revealed that he was trying to play through a hairline fracture in his right hand, which could certainly explain his extended slump. And it should be noted that even in his “down” season, Tucker amassed a 143 OPS+, far better than any current Oriole managed to do in 2025.
The Athletic’s Keith Law, who also ranked Tucker as this offseason’s #1 free agent, is confident that the slugger’s impressive underlying metrics and a return to full health will restore him to star status. “[H]e continued to improve his pitch selection, matching the lowest chase rate of his career while swinging more at pitches in the zone,” Law writes. “I think after an offseason to let his hand strength return, he’ll go back to being a 30-homer player with OBPs in the top 10 percent of his league for multiple years.”
Tucker has an exceptionally well-rounded game. He hits for power (.507 career SLG). He gets on base (.358 OBP). He’s a quality defender who won a Gold Glove in 2022. And while the Orioles, on paper, don’t currently have an opening in their outfield after their surprise acquisition of Taylor Ward late Tuesday night, they could certainly make room for Tucker.
Despite the injuries that have interfered with his last two seasons, Tucker has generally been a durable player during his career. He played 58 of his team’s 60 games in 2000, then played 140 or more in each of the next three campaigns. No long-term contract is truly without risk, especially one that’s likely to be in the $400 million range, but Tucker seems like a good bet to remain productive for a long while. I could get used to the idea of the sweet-swinging lefty taking aim at the Oriole Park flag court for 81 home games a year.
The Orioles’ front office is plenty familiar with Tucker. O’s president Mike Elias was the Astros’ director of scouting when they drafted Tucker out of high school with the fifth overall pick in 2015. Elias’s top lieutenant, Sig Mejdal, was also part of Houston’s organization at that time. If pre-existing relationships play a role in Tucker’s decision, that could be a point in the Orioles’ favor.
In the end, though, it’s all going to come down to money. We assume the Orioles can’t compete in a bidding war with deep-pocketed teams, but then again, owner David Rubenstein is on record as saying that the O’s “don’t have particular financial constraints.” That kind of comment is open to a lot of interpretation, of course, but surely a guy who bought the last privately owned copy of the Magna Carta could afford to shell out the kind of money it would take to sign MLB’s best free agent.
So, what do you say, Orioles? Let’s shock the baseball world and make this happen. Even though it absolutely, definitely won’t happen.
