It wasn’t that the move the Cincinnati Reds made to pick up Gavin Lux last year was a bad idea. Cincinnati’s offense needed another bat, needed one not making a ton of money, and we all know their addiction to adding versatility to their lineup.
It’s just that when the deal was made, we all knew that was it. Rather than bringing in Lux as another complementary piece to their lineup before going out and actually landing a ‘big’ bat, the writing was on the wall that this was set to serve as one of their primary
additions.
There may be no deal in recent memory where a new Reds player stepped in and provided almost exactly what was expected of him (by the non-front office, at least). He hit right-handed pitching well, albeit with hardly any thump – .282/.361/.400 with 5 dingers and 27 doubles in 440 PA. He was abysmal against left-handed pitching all year – .179/.270/.196 with nary a dinger in 63 ill-advised PA. He’s a liability defensively in all the spots where he played, he makes very soft contact, but he’s got a good eye at the plate – again, against righties.
That’s the kind of player you can probably shoehorn in as your 26th man if the rest of the roster is built accordingly, namely that you don’t have a defined 2B (really his only defensive spot of any palatability) and you’ve got someone else around who hits lefties with a similar skillset. He’s a platoon bat with light glove and no pop, yet he’s now entering a final year of team control (and arbitration eligibility) where he’s estimated to earn $5 million for that resume.
So, when I chose five pretty essential pieces to the 2025 Reds for a question regarding who, among them, you felt was the most likely to be traded this offseason, it was only a little bit surprising that Lux lead the results with a potent 37%.
I say ‘little bit surprising’ basically because of what I lined out before the graphic. He’s set to earn $5 million for next season before reaching free agency and is fresh off a season valued at -0.2 bWAR and just 0.3 fWAR. Dealing him would save the frugal Reds a little bit of coin, yes, but you aren’t getting anything in return for that – especially after the world saw that not even the cozy confines of Great American Ball Park can turn him into even the slightest of better hitters.
The other four options I listed likely have the chance, if traded, to bring back a pretty impactful return. The three pitchers listed – Brady Singer, Nick Lodolo, Andrew Abbott – run the gamut of performance, team control, 2026 salary, and upside, but all would (to varying degrees) be extremely valuable on the trade block. Each, in other words, would bring back something significant.
Steer probably could bring back a decent piece, too, even though it would likely be a prospect far from making their big league debut. He at least comes with several years of team control. With Lux, though, it would seem to be more of a salary dump than anything else, which makes the pain of having shipped out Mike Sirota (currently #64 on MLB Pipeline’s list of the Top 100 overall prospects in the game) sting a little bit more.
That said, these results indicate something that does seem to be pretty clear – Lux isn’t a core piece now, nor expected to be one long-term with this Reds club, and you think the other guys on this list are.
