There has been a series of events over the past week that suggest the Minnesota Vikings and J.J. McCarthy may not be together much longer.
The Kyler Murray Signing
The first was the signing of Kyler Murray. It was expected that the Vikings would bring in an established starter given the quarterback fiasco last season. And while Murray isn’t the GOAT, he put together a few good seasons in Arizona which made the notion put forward by the Vikings of there being a competition between Murray and McCarthy after his performance
last season seem less than believable. Murray was signed to be the starter, which puts McCarthy on the back burner for another year. That was more or less expected and didn’t necessarily mean the Vikings had given up on McCarthy.
The Albert Breer Article
But then the second event happened- an article by Albert Breer detailing how the Kyler Murray signing came together. Apparently, the Vikings began thinking about what they wanted to do at quarterback as early as last season when the Vikings were 4-8. At that point the Vikings started to look at bringing in another reclamation-type quarterback like Sam Darnold in 2024 and began studying several options including Kyler Murray.
It was that week when Kevin O’Connell was asked what improvement he wanted to see from McCarthy over the final five weeks of the season. Kevin O’Connell essentially said he stopped focusing on trying to improve fundamentals with McCarthy and focused instead on decision-making, essentially avoiding turnovers and injuries, and playing free with a clear mind and that there will be a time later to get back to working on fundamentals.
“If the fundamentals need to be changed, if they need to be adjusted, if we need more time on task that’s one thing, but let’s just make the throws. Let’s just throw and catch.”
At the time, that felt like O’Connell had put off working on McCarthy’s fundamentals until after the season was over, which made sense because there isn’t really much time during the week to work on fundamentals when you need to install the game plan in three days of practice. But knowing the Vikings were already beginning to explore options for 2026 at that point, and after two offseasons of working on fundamentals with McCarthy in practice but still not seeing them transferred to the field on game days, that may have been the moment when O’Connell decided it was time to move on from McCarthy.
On a recent Purple Daily show this point was brought up and local Vikings beat reporter Judd Zulgad recalled at the time that could mean the Vikings were done with McCarthy at that point. See video below.
Breer went on to write that the Vikings briefly explored a second year with Murray on his contract and that after the Vikings had decided to sign Murray, Kevin O’Connell took Murray aside and told him, “that he was the one guy on the market that they could see as a potential longer-range answer, rather than a one-year Band-Aid.”
If the Vikings were looking to add a second year on Murray’s contract, which would mean having Murray on the roster through the end of McCarthy’s contract (although there is a fifth-year option) and their seeing Murray as a potential longer-range answer rather than a one-year Band-Aid, what does that say about how they view McCarthy’s future?
The Carson Wentz Signing
The last event was the announcement that Carson Wentz was being re-signed by the Vikings. Not exactly earth-shattering in and of itself, but it begs the question: is Wentz the backup or is he QB3?
Wentz reportedly had options with the Chiefs and Jets (and the Jets backup job is still open) but he preferred Minnesota. But why would Wentz choose to be QB3 in Minnesota when he could be QB2 with the Jets? That would make it less likely he would see the field this season after wanting to play so badly last season that he continued despite multiple and painful injuries. And it’s still early in free agency so other QB2 options could be available for him down the road as well.
That has led some to conclude that Wentz was signed to be the backup and J.J. McCarthy’s future with the Vikings may be a short one.
The Problem with McCarthy’s Development
McCarthy’s development has been frustrating. Issues that didn’t seem to be major issues based on his college tape and scouting reports- like his footwork and throwing mechanics- have remained a problem after two offseasons of practices and whatever work was done during the season last year. Additionally, injuries and durability concerns were not apparent for McCarthy in college but have plagued him since turning pro- often suffered during plays that didn’t flash as big hits. In a couple cases it couldn’t be determined which play the injury occurred.
Other issues like lacking touch to layer passes were more of a known issue when he was drafted, but also something that he has made precious little progress with over two years. But overall accuracy in college was good enough where it didn’t appear to be as big an issue at it has proven to be over his ten starts. And he threw more over the middle of the field percentage-wise in college than other top prospects in the 2024 draft but still has struggled more in that area since he was drafted.
But really the biggest problem, which O’Connell touched upon a couple times last year in his press conferences, is that McCarthy can look good with his fundamentals and what-not in practice, but in the heat of the moment during games he reverts back to “bad habits” as McCarthy described them at one-point last season. That makes it difficult from a coaching perspective to really know how much progress McCarthy is really making. Looking good or making progress in practice is one thing but showing improved fundamentals and so forth during games is another.
Timing and Development
Kevin O’Connell has famously said that, “organizations fail young quarterbacks before young quarterbacks fail organizations.” But at some point the timeline for development becomes a key consideration. Teams can’t wait forever for a quarterback to develop into a quality starter.
For one thing, there is a contract. McCarthy has this year and next year left on his rookie contract, with a fifth-year option estimated at around $20 million based on McCarthy’s position and being the #10 overall pick. The decision to exercise that option has to be made by May of next year. If Murray is the starter this season, there is no way the Vikings will exercise McCarthy’s option based on the cost and on-field performance.
The next issue is whether McCarthy could become the starter in 2027. While a possibility, it would seem unrealistic that the Vikings would head into next season without an established starter under contract- just like this season. There is no way to know if McCarthy will emerge as a quality starter or not, and at this point there is a good deal of doubt. And so if the Vikings are paying for an established starter next year (and probably not at the veteran minimum like this year) isn’t that player going to be the starter next year?
The point here is that at some point, whatever time and effort the Vikings put into developing McCarthy at this point is most likely not for the Vikings benefit, but for the benefit of whatever team McCarthy signs with after his rookie contract is over. In theory the Vikings could extend McCarthy after his rookie contract expires for near the veteran minimum, but in reality that basically never happens. A top draft pick needs to prove he can be a quality starter before the end of his rookie contract if he wants to be extended.
And so, if this (increasingly likely) scenario were to unfold, why would the Vikings continue to develop McCarthy for some other team and occupy a valuable roster spot for that purpose? The answer is it doesn’t make sense which could lead to the Vikings choosing to move on from McCarthy sooner rather than later.
We’ll see.
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