With the Kansas City Chiefs enjoying an early bye in Week 5, it is a great time to look at trends from the first half of the season. As one of the league’s three remaining undefeated teams, it is unsurprising that many metrics favor what Kansas City has done over the first four weeks.
Let’s take a look at some interesting tidbits from the NFL’s Next Gen Stats on Chiefs’ strong start — and what areas of concern remain.
Offense
The biggest factor in Kansas City’s early success has been a true commitment to the
run game that few expected head coach Andy Reid to be capable of. Right now, Kansas City ranks second in expected points added (EPA) per run play at 0.14. The only team ahead is the Buffalo Bills, who benefit in the metric from quarterback Josh Allen’s ability to make plays with his legs. Speedy Buffalo running back James Cook also narrowly edges Walker (at 15 to 14) on rush attempts of ten or more yards.
Walker leads all running backs with 10.9 cumulative expected points added. His 537 total yards easily lead the league. In fact, his four-game total will likely only fall to second in the league — even after most teams have a five-game sample. Bijan Robinson of the Atlanta Falcons trails Walker by 43 yards and probably will pass him even with a below-average performance. Cook could push Walker to third place in the NFL’s rushing leaders with 117 yards on the ground when the Bills face the Los Angeles Rams on Monday night.
By many metrics, quarterback Patrick Mahomes is having his best season since winning his second MVP award in 2022. His EPA per dropback currently stands at 0.17, up from 0.11 each of the past two seasons. There has been no noticeable uptick in the face of the league testing his deep ball (unsurprising given the continuing questions at offensive tackle. Mahomes’ 7.1 air yards per attempt is up from the 2023 and 2024 seasons, but it’s a slight decline from his 7.9-yard mark in his truncated 2025 campaign.
The Chiefs are currently running about 40% of their offensive plays from under center (up from about 18% in 2025). Walker’s addition is also allowing Mahomes to reach a career-high 33% play-action percentage on passing plays. The only other time Mahomes exceeded 30% as a starter was in 2018, when he played most of the season with second-year running back Kareem Hunt.
One curiosity of the start is the usage of rookie running back Emmett Johnson. With only five receptions (on five targets), Johnson already has a cumulative 5.8 receiving EPA. Because of a -3.6-yard average depth of target, Johnson has been credited with 92 yards after the catch while officially having 74 receiving yards for the year. Reid and his staff should prioritize unlocking Johnson’s potential in the screen game in the weeks ahead.
Defense
In recent weeks, the Chiefs’ defense has reminded many fans of the importance of taking prescribed blood pressure medication. However, most advanced stats spin what the unit is doing in a favorable light.
Kansas City’s -.010 EPA per defensive play ranks eighth in the league through the season’s first month. When separated into run and pass plays, the Chiefs remain in the top ten in both.
The run defense has been particularly effective when using light boxes. The Chiefs rank second with a -0.27 EPA when having fewer than seven players near the line. Surprisingly, Kansas City’s stuff rate (plays stopped behind the line of scrimmage or for no gain) sits at about 21% in any box formation. Overall, the 21.2% stuff rate ranks third in the league.
The Chiefs have been much more susceptible to run plays on third down, however. In the key situation, Kansas City’s EPA drops to 0.28, good for 21st overall. Passing stats on third down trend more toward league average.
Veteran cornerback L’Jarius Sneed is widely seen as a liability to the defense, and advanced metrics mostly agree. Sneed has allowed 278 receiving yards in coverage, the fourth most in the league. He also has been targeted on 30% of the coverage snaps he has taken.
With a -6.2 pass coverage EPA, linebacker Drue Tranquill narrowly misses a spot in the NFL’s top ten.
We will be back with another look at how advanced metrics view the Chiefs as they enter a ‘mini bye’ after their Thanksgiving night game against the Bills.
