Clearly, Paul Toboni and the front office knew that they needed to shake up the bullpen in some way. It started with demoting Paxton Schultz for Carson Palmquist. Now, the Nats claimed veteran righty Justin Lawrence off waivers from the Twins. Lawrence has had a rough year, but has been successful in the past and has good stuff.
When you look at Lawrence’s
stuff, it is easy to see the appeal. He averages 95.5 MPH on his fastball which comes from a side arm delivery. Having a sidearmer who throws in the mid to upper 90’s is really unique. Lawrence also has a sweeper that has a ton of break. Hitters are whiffing over 45% of the time against that sweeper.
If you look at Lawrence’s 2026 numbers, this move is a bit baffling. The right hander has an ERA over 8 and a FIP over 7. Walks and home runs have been huge issues for the righty this season. Despite his putrid performance this season, clearly the front office sees something in him.
Lawrence also has some success in his past. Back in 2023, he posted a 3.72 ERA in 69 outings in the Rockies bullpen. A 3.72 ERA is normally not anything special for a reliever, but that is a really good number in Coors Field. His ERA+ that year was 134, meaning he was 34% better than the league average pitcher when you account for the home field.
When he got out of Coors Field, Lawrence was outstanding when he pitched in 2025. He only appeared in 17 games due to injuries, but his ERA in 2025 was 0.51 in 17.2 innings. However, after a rough start for the Pirates this year, he was DFA’d. The 31 year old was picked up by the Twins, but things only got worse for him in Minnesota, allowing 12 runs in 6 innings.
For a Nats bullpen that desperately needs stuff, Lawrence can provide that. Even this season, he is striking out over 25% of hitters. When he is in the zone, Lawrence can be nasty. However, throwing strikes and missing barrels has been a problem this year.
I wonder what kind of tweaks the Nats will try and make with Lawrence. Maybe they see something mechanically that could help him find the zone more. His side arm delivery is probably tough to repeat when things aren’t going well. The Nats could also up his sweeper usage. Last year, he threw the pitch 50% of the time, but that number is down to 41% this year. The issue is, it is tougher to spam sweepers when you are constantly behind in the count.
Lawrence is out of options, so he will be joining the big league club right away. I would assume he will arrive tomorrow. This is another low risk flier from Toboni, but if Lawrence continues to be as wild as he has been, this experiment could be short lived. Hopefully the Nats can get Lawrence back to his best because his ceiling is high.
