With a playoff berth just one magic number away, the Guardians will have to make some interesting decisions regarding their pitching options.
The Guardians can make certain tonight of at least a wildcard appearance with a win, but they also hold a one-game lead in the AL Central. One more win would also guarantee that the winner of the division will be given the 2nd seed in the American League and a bye for the first round of the playoffs. This would be huge for either Cleveland or the White Sox as they could
rest their bullpen and reset their starters for the opening game on October 3rd. Whoever makes the wildcard will play their first of a best of three series on September 29th.
Currently, Daniel Espino and Joey Cantillo are set to tag-team start today, Gavin Williams, Tanner Bibee and Parker Messick are set to start the final three games. As the rotation currently aligns, Foster Griffin would start game one of a wildcard series on regular rest, Gavin Williams game two on regular rest and then Parker Messick would be on short rest for game three as needed. None of this is ideal. The team wants Williams and Messick starting games one and two of their series on regular rest.
If it is possible to get the #2 seed, then you take the risk and allow Williams and Messick to both pitch this week as planned. It is simply THAT valuable to get the bye. However, if the Guardians would happen to lose tonight to Boston while the White Sox happen to beat the Royals, and yet Cleveland clinches a playoff berth, they should absolutely readjust their thinking with the White Sox headed to Colorado to play the Rockies to end the season.
You cannot assume anything for certain in baseball but the odds are very good that the White Sox take at least two of three from the Rockies and the Guardians will not sweep the Royals. If the Guardians are tied with the White Sox and yet sure of a playoff berth by the end of tonight, then it is time to rest Williams (either with a very abbreviated outing on Friday or sitting him altogether) and hold Messick in reserve to start both in an incredibly likely Wildcard series. These two pitchers are the most valuable assets the team has in terms of highest playoff impact and have to be leveraged for maximum impact for a playoff run to be reasonable.
The good news is that if there is still more room to doubt after today, the team can start Williams tomorrow and then reevaluate before Sunday’s start. If they are tied with the White Sox entering Sunday but assured of a playoff berth, they CANNOT start Messick on Sunday. He must be held for game one of the wildcard so Williams can start in game two.
To make all this happen, the team may have to go get Austin Peterson or Logan Allen to make a spot start. Perhaps Slade Cecconi can do it, but, if not, demoting Espino and then calling him back up for the playoffs makes sense (he does not have to wait the usual ten days to return when the season ends).
A lot depends on today – if the Guardians beat the Red Sox and the White Sox somehow lose another game to the Royals, then it is time to go full bore after that #2 seed. If, however, things don’t quite go to plan, the Guardians will need to stay nimble to adjust to make sure their best pitchers are positioned to keep them in the playoffs as long as possible.
