After a 2024 season where Gunnar Henderson was one of the best players in all of MLB, Orioles fans could be hopeful he’d be able to repeat at that elite level. It didn’t work out that way, with Henderson having a still pretty good but nowhere near MVP-level season. We know now, from Henderson’s own telling, that he battled through a shoulder impingement that was likely a factor in his diminished power.
Here’s what two big projection systems, ZiPS at FanGraphs and PECOTA at Baseball Prospectus, see
as the 50th percentile outcome for Henderson this year:
- ZiPS: .272/.352/.491 with 29 home runs and 22 stolen bases
- PECOTA: .265/.347/.476 with 28 home runs and 20 stolen bases
Each of these represents a sizable improvement over what Henderson was able to do last year and would place Henderson back among the best players in baseball. The ZiPS projection, particularly, has Henderson tied for the sixth-best WAR projection of any position player in MLB. Pretty good!
The projections believe a young player like Henderson can bounce back to an elite level after what he’s shown in his career so far. What do you think is coming from Henderson this season?
